International films and international markets: the globalisation of Hollywood entertainment, c.1921-1951

The international appeal of Hollywood films through the twentieth century has been a subject of interest to economic and film historians alike. This paper employs some of the methods of the economic historian to evaluate key arguments within the film history literature explaining the global success of American films. Through careful analysis of both existing and newly constructed data sets, the paper examines the extent to which Hollywood's foreign earnings were affected by: film production costs; the extent of global distribution networks; and also the international orientation of the films themselves. The paper finds that these factors influenced foreign earnings in quite distinct ways, and that their relative importance changed over time. The evidence presented here suggests a degree of interaction between the production and distribution arms of the major US film companies in their pursuit of foreign markets that would benefit from further archival-based investigation.

Using proxies to calculate the carbon impact of investment into electricity network assets

Replacement and upgrading of assets in the electricity network requires financial investment for the distribution and transmission utilities. The replacement and upgrading of network assets also represents an emissions impact due to the carbon embodied in the materials used to manufacture network assets. This paper uses investment and asset data for the GB system for 2015-2023 to assess the suitability of using a proxy with peak demand data and network investment data to calculate the carbon impacts of network investments. The proxies are calculated on a regional basis and applied to calculate the embodied carbon associated with current network assets by DNO region. The proxies are also applied to peak demand data across the 2015-2023 period to estimate the expected levels of embodied carbon that will be associated with network investment during this period. The suitability of these proxies in different contexts are then discussed, along with initial scenario analysis to calculate the impact of avoiding or deferring network investments through distributed generation projects. The proxies were found to be effective in estimating the total embodied carbon of electricity system investment in order to compare investment strategies in different regions of the GB network.

Do jumps matter for volatility forecasting? Evidence from energy markets

This paper characterizes the dynamics of jumps and analyzes their importance for volatility forecasting. Using high-frequency data on four prominent energy markets, we perform a model-free decomposition of realized variance into its continuous and discontinuous components. We find strong evidence of jumps in energy markets between 2007 and 2012. We then investigate the importance of jumps for volatility forecasting. To this end, we estimate and analyze the predictive ability of several Heterogenous Autoregressive (HAR) models that explicitly capture the dynamics of jumps. Conducting extensive in-sample and out-of-sample analyses, we establish that explicitly modeling jumps does not significantly improve forecast accuracy. Our results are broadly consistent across our four energy markets, forecasting horizons, and loss functions

Non-competitive markets

Among all the paradigms in economic theory, the theoretical predictions of oligopoly were the first to be examined in the laboratory. In this chapter, instead of surveying all the experiments with few sellers, we adopt a narrower definition of the term “oligopoly”, and focus on the experiments that were directly inspired by the basic oligopolistic models of Cournot, Bertrand, Hotelling, Stackelberg, and some extensions. Most of the experiments we consider in this chapter have been run in the last three decades. This literature can be considered as a new wave of experimental works aiming at representing basic oligopolistic markets and testing their properties. The chapter is divided into independent sections referring to different parts of the oligopolistic theory, including both monopoly as well as a number of extensions of the basic models, which have been chosen with the aim of providing a representative list of the relevant experimental findings.

Electricity derivatives pricing with forward-looking information

In order to increase overall transparency on key operational information, power transmission system operators publish an increasing amount of fundamental data, including forecasts of electricity demand and available capacity. We employ a fundamental model for electricity prices which lends itself well to integrating such forecasts, while retaining ease of implementation and tractability to allow for analytic derivatives pricing formulae. In an extensive futures pricing study, the pricing performance of our model is shown to further improve based on the inclusion of electricity demand and capacity forecasts, thus confirming the general importance of forward-looking information for electricity derivatives pricing. However, we also find that the usefulness of integrating forecast data into the pricing approach is primarily limited to those periods during which electricity prices are highly sensitive to demand or available capacity, whereas the impact is less visible when fuel prices are the primary underlying driver to prices instead.

Gender and the business cycle: an analysis of labour markets in the US and UK

Starting from an improved understanding of the relationship between gender labour market stocks and the business cycle, we analyse the contributing role of flows in the US and UK. Focusing on the post 2008 recession period, the subsequent greater rise in male unemployment can mostly be explained by a less cyclical response of flows between employment and unemployment for women, especially the entry into unemployment. Across gender and country, the inactivity rate is generally not sensitive to the state of the economy. However, a flows based analysis reveals a greater importance of the participation margin over the cycle. Changes in the rates of flow between unemployment and inactivity can each account for around 0.8-1.1 percentage points of the rise in US male and female unemployment rates during the latest downturn. For the UK, although the participation flow to unemployment similarly contributed to the increase of the female unemployment rate, this was not the case for men. The countercyclical flow rate from inactivity to employment was also more significant for women, especially in the US, where it accounted for approximately all of the fall in employment, compared with only 40% for men.