Previsão de demanda para peças de reposição de alto giro: aplicação de método descritivo simples comparado com o modelo suavização exponencial

O estudo de métodos de previsão de demandas é um conceito bastante popular, mas nem sempre seus resultados são facilmente aplicáveis nas organizações por várias limitações. O propósito deste artigo é apresentar um método simples e descritivo para a previsão de demanda para peças de reposição de alto giro e comparar os resultados com o modelo de suavização exponencial. Foi utilizado para isto, dados reais de consumo de uma empresa de geração de energia em dois anos com a mesma condição de contorno, e estabeleceu-se o ano de 2012 com a série de aplicação dos métodos e a série de 2013 com a série de validação dos resultados e em todas as amostras tomadas observou-se um menor erro quadrático RMSE, a favor do método descritivo simplificado. Todas as quatro séries analisadas se caracterizam pela alta dispersão dos dados, e não possuem tendências e sazonalidades.

A iteratividade: do melodrama à narrativa audiovisual sob demanda

The repetition should be understood as the property of mass cultural products, originated from the need to minimize the dispersion of the audience in their enjoyment. Based on this assumption, this paper measures the rate of iteration manifested in the scripts of the following serial fictions: Duas Caras, A Grande Família and House of Cards. Established itself as a method of scene analysis proposed by McKee (2008), questioned whether the lack of classical education of the public and rescued the forms assumed by repeating the melodrama, romance-serial and dramaturgy: asides, monologues, confidences and planar scenes. The proposal was applied in two scripts for each of the aforementioned productions. Considering the data collected, it appears that there was reduction in repeat products offered on demand thanks to the possibility of handling the flow and the attention given receptor.

Miedo e inseguridad de la gestante durante el trabajo de parto como motivos para la demanda de internación precoz

Objective. To identify reasons why women look for early health care attention at the end of pregnancy. Methodology. Qualitative study based in socio-existential phenomenology proposed by Alfred Schütz. Nine pregnant women who consulted to the maternity service without being in real labor were interviewed. Results. The following analysis categories emerged: Having different symptoms or signals from the ones they had felt or been informed about, not being able to identify real labor, fear to fetal complications for being close to the probable labor date, feeling calmer when being seen by professionals of the institution, lack of problem solving by other services of the health institution, fearing out of hospital delivery, imitating real labor, looking for tranquility in the idealization of labor and modifying behaviors to guarantee attention. Conclusion. Women are insecure and fear because of a fragmented health care, where they do not perceive themselves linked to the prenatal control program anymore, and at the same time they don’t find the health care assistance they want.

A importância da irrigação em pequenas e médias propriedades da região de Presidente Prudente-SP

A produção de alimentos é uma atividade essencial para a existência humana que demanda efetivamente muita água. A chuva é a sua principal fonte e, na falta desta, a irrigação supre essa necessidade, de forma parcial ou integral. A proposta do presente trabalho é levantar informações quantitativas e qualitativas a respeito de pequenas e médias propriedades da região de Presidente Prudente - SP que praticam a agricultura irrigada e apresentar, com base nos dados obtidos em pesquisa de campo, a importância da irrigação na região. Nesta pesquisa, no total foram entrevistados 28 produtores da região. Quanto à gestão do sistema, a pesquisa mostrou que poucos produtores detêm conhecimento e controle de informações para avaliar o incremento em relação à produtividade e a renda. Custos de implantação e manutenção dos sistemas, custo com energia elétrica e dificuldades com reposição de peças desgastadas e/ou danificadas, são apontadas como entraves no processo produtivo quando se utiliza algum sistema de irrigação. Já em relação ao grau de satisfação dos produtores quanto aos sistemas de irrigação que se encontram instalados em suas propriedades, o resultado é bastante positivo. Além do aumento de produtividade e aumento de renda, os produtores pontuaram benefícios tais como a possibilidade de sustentar suas famílias com uma pequena área de plantio, a permanência do homem no campo e a possibilidade de produzir em épocas de seca.

Análise parâmetros elétricos consumo, fator de carga e demanda de empresas de refino de óleo vegetal

Empresas muitas vezes tem seu consumo de energia elétrica descontrolados por possuírem motores elétricos muitas vezes super-dimensionados, trabalhando em vazio ou em horário de pico. Sendo este tipo de atividade responsável por grande parte do gasto energético da empresa. Existem dois fatores que avaliam o modo de utilização desta energia, denominados fator de potência (fp) e fator de carga (fc), que indicam a eficiência e racionalidade da forma de utilização da energia elétrica, respectivamente. A necessidade de uma avaliação global da utilização da energia, levando em consideração os dois fatores citados, é realizada por especialistas da área energética para a determinação da situação real da empresa. Podendo ser uma tarefa árdua muitas vezes demorada. Para isto é necessária uma análise estatística descritiva dos dados. Este trabalho tem como objetivo realizar esta analise de dados de uma empresa de refino de óleo vegetal.

Feasibility of solar heating systems composed of recyclable packaging for low-income rural communities

Solar heaters are an appropriate technology in tropical and sub-tropical climates to heat bath water by solar energy. Low-cost solar heaters meet the demand of low-income rural communities which currently do not have access to this technology. Current research analyzes the economic viability of solar heaters, built with recyclable materials, to reduce electric energy bill. A solar heating system was built consisting of recyclable materials in accordance with the manuals provided by the Secretariat of Environment of the state of Paraná (SEMA). Duration of use of electric showers by families of rural properties was determined to calculate expenses and billing of electricity. Simulation and material costs showed that the system was feasible. Commercial solar heaters could be replaced at a cost of R$ 22.61 per month during 13 months.

Demanda energética de máquinas agrícolas na implantação da cultura do sorgo forrageiro

Forage sorghum can be grown in areas and environmental conditions dry and warm, where the productivity of other forage plants can often be uneconomical. The soil disturbance can be made only on the lines of planting (direct seeding) or entirely from the area for seeding (conventional tillage), as plowing, harrowing, subsoiling and chiseling (minimum tillage). The displacement speed ideal for planting is one in which the groove is opened and closed without removing the over-ground, allowing the distribution of seed spacing and depth constant. The experiment was conducted in a soil classified as Typic Oxisol at Lageado Experimental Farm, Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, UNESP, Botucatu campus. This study aimed to evaluate the response of sorghum in four forward speeds (3, 5, 6 and 9 km h-1) and four systems of soil management: SD (direct seeding), GP (harrow + sowing), LPG (disc harrow and two light disking + sowing) and CR (scarification and seeding). Data was subjected to analysis of variance in a factorial 4 x 4 and a randomized block design with split plots. The following parameters were determined: average speed, average strength of the drawbar, the average power drawbar, theoretical field capacity of the tractor-equipment, fuel consumption per hour. For the conditions under which the experiment was conducted, it was concluded that the hourly fuel consumption was not influenced by tillage systems and was inversely proportional to the increase of speed work, and that the change of speed in the sowing operation did not provide additional the values of average traction force on the bar of the tractor-planter.

Características agronômicas e demanda energética de cultivares de soja sob efeito dos sistemas de preparo do solo

The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of preparation: intermediate grade, minimum tillage and no-till on the agronomic characteristics and energy demand of transgenic soybean cultivars and non-GMO soybeans. Soil preparation aims at improving physical, chemical and biological conditions, aiming at good emergence and plant development. The different types of tillage may interfere with the agronomic characteristics and productivity of plants, and in energy use which can cause variation in production costs. Genetically modified plants can be one of the alternatives for reduction of production costs in crops by reducing pesticide applications, enabling higher productivity with less environmental impact. The test was conducted in 2010/2011 at the agricultural Experimental Farm Lageado, belonging to the Faculty of Agronomic Sciences – UNESP, located in the city of Botucatu, SP in an area using no-till systems for the past 12 years. The experiment was carried out in a 3 x 2 factorial, randomized treatments were comprised of three soil preparation systems, minimum cultivation, intermediate grade preparation and no-till, with two cultivars of soybeans: MGBR-46 Conquest (conventional), Valuable RR (Transgenic). The data obtained was submitted to variance analysis using Tukey test at a 5% probability. With the results analyzed it might be observed that there was no significant difference between treatments, in the variables, the percentage of soil cover, final soybean plant population, grain yield and plant height. The results obtained show that the no-till system resulted in higher productivity than conventional tillage and minimum cultivation. The higher specific energy use per area was observed in minimum cultivation with a chisel plough, when compared to the preparation across the grid. The greatest fuel consumption was to treat minimum cultivation with chisel plough. The highest values were found in the skating system of minimum cultivation, being greater in conventional tillage system. It is more satisfactory for the producer to sow transgenic soy using a no-till system, because productivity retrieved from that system compensates for fuel expenditure.

Demanda energética em diferentes manejos de solo e híbridos de milho

This study aimed to account the energy balance of six different farming systems: CMT (minimum tillage with transgenic corn); CMNT (minimum tillage with non-transgenic corn); PCT (conventional tillage with transgenic corn); PCNT (conventional tillage with non-transgenic corn); PDT (no-tillage system with transgenic corn) and PDNT (no-tillage system with non-transgenic corn). The study was carried out at the Experimental Farm Lageado FCA/Unesp, Botucatu - SP. The energy balance was performed by subtracting the total energy inputs by the total energy output. Energy efficiency was calculated by dividing the total energy output by the total energy inputs. The total values ​​of energy inputs and outputs were expressed in MJ.ha-1 (mega joules per hectare). To calculate the energy inputs were accounted the fuel consumption and lubricants, depreciation energy of machinery and implements, manpower and agricultural inputs. The energy outputs were calculated according to the maize yield. The result shows that the system PDT was the system that had better energy efficiency and the system that had the lowest efficiency was the PCT system. The system with lower energy demand was the PDT and the greatest demand was PCNT.

Perfil da renda e do volume dos resíduos sólidos urbanos da associação de catadores de São Manuel - SP

The implementation of residue selective collection has brought to the city of Sao Manuel an incalculable benefit. It brought a better life for a group of adults and children that lives in a humanitarian condition of extreme poverty. These people live in an open-air dump, disputing the remains found in fifteen tons of garbage that are deposited at the site almost every day.The objective of this paper is to present thecollectors annual income profile and the volume of solid waste collected.To present these factors, the total and fractionated amount according to their material items, collected since the creation of the Association in February 2003 until December 2008, were considered., In addition,the social gains were enumerated. These factors were developed from a theoretical base for municipal solid waste involving environmental, social, and financial concepts. Based on these results it was found that the ACAPEL income value was above the average of other income indicators of the population analyzed, besides the social value enhance that the creation of the Association brought to the people who work there.