On the utility of input selection and pruning for financial distress prediction models

Analyzes the use of linear and neural network models for financial distress classification, with emphasis on the issues of input variable selection and model pruning. A data-driven method for selecting input variables (financial ratios, in this case) is proposed. A case study involving 60 British firms in the period 1997-2000 is used for illustration. It is shown that the use of the Optimal Brain Damage pruning technique can considerably improve the generalization ability of a neural model. Moreover, the set of financial ratios obtained with the proposed selection procedure is shown to be an appropriate alternative to the ratios usually employed by practitioners.

Variable selection for financial distress classification using a genetic algorithm

This paper is concerned with the use of a genetic algorithm to select financial ratios for corporate distress classification models. For this purpose, the fitness value associated to a set of ratios is made to reflect the requirements of maximizing the amount of information available for the model and minimizing the collinearity between the model inputs. A case study involving 60 failed and continuing British firms in the period 1997-2000 is used for illustration. The classification model based on ratios selected by the genetic algorithm compares favorably with a model employing ratios usually found in the financial distress literature.