Identifying time lags in the restoration of grassland butterfly communities: a multi-site assessment

Although grasslands are crucial habitats for European butterflies, large-scale declines in quality and area have devastated many species. Grassland restoration can contribute to the recovery of butterfly populations, although there is a paucity of information on the long-term effects of management. Using eight UK data sets (9-21 years), we investigate changes in restoration success for (1) arable reversion sites, were grassland was established on bare ground using seed mixtures, and (2) grassland enhancement sites, where degraded grasslands are restored by scrub removal followed by the re-instigation of cutting/grazing. We also assessed the importance of individual butterfly traits and ecological characteristics in determining colonisation times. Consistent increases in restoration success over time were seen for arable reversion sites, with the most rapid rates of increase in restoration success seen over the first 10 years. For grasslands enhancement there were no consistent increases in restoration success over time. Butterfly colonisation times were fastest for species with widespread host plants or where host plants established well during restoration. Low mobility butterfly species took longer to colonise. We show that arable reversion is an effective tool for the management of butterfly communities. We suggest that as restoration takes time to achieve, its use as a mitigation tool against future environmental change (i.e. by decreasing isolation in fragmented landscapes) needs to take into account such time lags.

Estimating root–soil contact from 3D X-ray microtomographs

Adequate contact with the soil is essential for water and nutrient adsorption by plant roots, but the determination of root–soil contact is a challenging task because it is difficult to visualize roots in situ and quantify their interactions with the soil at the scale of micrometres. A method to determine root–soil contact using X-ray microtomography was developed. Contact areas were determined from 3D volumetric images using segmentation and iso-surface determination tools. The accuracy of the method was tested with physical model systems of contact between two objects (phantoms). Volumes, surface areas and contact areas calculated from the measured phantoms were compared with those estimated from image analysis. The volume was accurate to within 0.3%, the surface area to within 2–4%, and the contact area to within 2.5%. Maize and lupin roots were grown in soil (<2 mm) and vermiculite at matric potentials of −0.03 and −1.6 MPa and in aggregate fractions of 4–2, 2–1, 1–0.5 and < 0.5 mm at a matric potential of −0.03 MPa. The contact of the roots with their growth medium was determined from 3D volumetric images. Macroporosity (>70 µm) of the soil sieved to different aggregate fractions was calculated from binarized data. Root-soil contact was greater in soil than in vermiculite and increased with decreasing aggregate or particle size. The differences in root–soil contact could not be explained solely by the decrease in porosity with decreasing aggregate size but may also result from changes in particle and aggregate packing around the root.

An evaluation of the spatiotemporal structure of large-scale European drought within the HiGEM climate model

We compare the characteristics of synthetic European droughts generated by the HiGEM1 coupled climate model run with present day atmospheric composition with observed drought events extracted from the CRU TS3 data set. The results demonstrate consistency in both the rate of drought occurrence and the spatiotemporal structure of the events. Estimates of the probability density functions for event area, duration and severity are shown to be similar with confidence > 90%. Encouragingly, HiGEM is shown to replicate the extreme tails of the observed distributions and thus the most damaging European drought events. The soil moisture state is shown to play an important role in drought development. Once a large-scale drought has been initiated it is found to be 50% more likely to continue if the local soil moisture is below the 40th percentile. In response to increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2, the modelled droughts are found to increase in duration, area and severity. The drought response can be largely attributed to temperature driven changes in relative humidity. 1 HiGEM is based on the latest climate configuration of the Met Office Hadley Centre Unified Model (HadGEM1) with the horizontal resolution increased to 1.25 x 0.83 degrees in longitude and latitude in the atmosphere and 1/3 x 1/3 degrees in the ocean.

Examining the large-scale spatial coherence of European drought using regional indicators of precipitation and streamflow deficit

Droughts tend to evolve slowly and affect large areas simultaneously, which suggests that improved understanding of spatial coherence of drought would enable better mitigation of drought impacts through enhanced monitoring and forecasting strategies. This study employs an up-to-date dataset of over 500 river flow time series from 11 European countries, along with a gridded precipitation dataset, to examine the spatial coherence of drought in Europe using regional indicators of precipitation and streamflow deficit. The drought indicators were generated for 24 homogeneous regions and, for selected regions, historical drought characteristics were corroborated with previous work. The spatial coherence of drought characteristics was then examined at a European scale. Historical droughts generally have distinctive signatures in their spatio-temporal development, so there was limited scope for using the evolution of historical events to inform forecasting. Rather, relationships were explored in time series of drought indicators between regions. Correlations were generally low, but multivariate analyses revealed broad continental-scale patterns, which appear to be related to large-scale atmospheric circulation indices (in particular, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic West Russia pattern). A novel methodology for forecasting was developed (and demonstrated with reference to the United Kingdom), which predicts drought from drought i.e. uses spatial coherence of drought to facilitate early warning of drought in a target region, from drought which is developing elsewhere in Europe.Whilst the skill of the methodology is relatively modest at present, this approach presents a potential new avenue for forecasting, which offers significant advantages in that it allows prediction for all seasons, and also shows some potential for forecasting the termination of drought conditions.

Scale-selective verification of rainfall accumulations from high-resolution forecasts of convective events

The development of NWP models with grid spacing down to 1 km should produce more realistic forecasts of convective storms. However, greater realism does not necessarily mean more accurate precipitation forecasts. The rapid growth of errors on small scales in conjunction with preexisting errors on larger scales may limit the usefulness of such models. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether improved model resolution alone is able to produce more skillful precipitation forecasts on useful scales, and how the skill varies with spatial scale. A verification method will be described in which skill is determined from a comparison of rainfall forecasts with radar using fractional coverage over different sized areas. The Met Office Unified Model was run with grid spacings of 12, 4, and 1 km for 10 days in which convection occurred during the summers of 2003 and 2004. All forecasts were run from 12-km initial states for a clean comparison. The results show that the 1-km model was the most skillful over all but the smallest scales (approximately <10–15 km). A measure of acceptable skill was defined; this was attained by the 1-km model at scales around 40–70 km, some 10–20 km less than that of the 12-km model. The biggest improvement occurred for heavier, more localized rain, despite it being more difficult to predict. The 4-km model did not improve much on the 12-km model because of the difficulties of representing convection at that resolution, which was accentuated by the spinup from 12-km fields.