Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data

We propose a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probabilityof leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-sectiondata, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. Theproposed method-of-moments-based estimator has two important features:(1) it estimates the exit probability at the individual level and(2) it does not rely on the stationarity assumption of the inflowcomposition. We illustrate and gauge the performance of the proposedestimator using the Spanish Labor Force Survey data, and analyze the changesin distribution of unemployment between the 1980s and 1990s during a periodof labor market reform. We find that the relative probability of leavingunemployment of the short-term unemployed versus the long-term unemployedbecomes significantly higher in the 1990s.

Simultaneous determination of antidementia drugs by HPLC-MS: validation data of the method and plasma level determinations in 300 patients

Aims: A rapid and simple HPLC-MS method was developed for the simultaneousdetermination of antidementia drugs, including donepezil, galantamine, rivastigmineand its major metabolite NAP 226 - 90, and memantine, for TherapeuticDrug Monitoring (TDM). In the elderly population treated with antidementiadrugs, the presence of several comorbidities, drug interactions resulting frompolypharmacy, and variations in drug metabolism and elimination, are possiblefactors leading to the observed high interindividual variability in plasma levels.Although evidence for the benefit of TDM for antidementia drugs still remains tobe demonstrated, an individually adapted dosage through TDM might contributeto minimize the risk of adverse reactions and to increase the probability of efficienttherapeutic response. Methods: A solid-phase extraction procedure with amixed-mode cation exchange sorbent was used to isolate the drugs from 0.5 mL ofplasma. The compounds were analyzed on a reverse-phase column with a gradientelution consisting of an ammonium acetate buffer at pH 9.3 and acetonitrile anddetected by mass spectrometry in the single ion monitoring mode. Isotope-labeledinternal standards were used for quantification where possible. The validatedmethod was used to measure the plasma levels of antidementia drugs in 300patients treated with these drugs. Results: The method was validated accordingto international standards of validation, including the assessment of the trueness(-8 - 11 %), the imprecision (repeatability: 1-5%, intermediate imprecision:2 - 9 %), selectivity and matrix effects variability (less than 6 %). Furthermore,short and long-term stability of the analytes in plasma was ascertained. Themethod proved to be robust in the calibrated ranges of 1 - 300 ng/mL for rivastigmineand memantine and 2 - 300 mg/mL for donepezil, galantamine and NAP226 - 90. We recently published a full description of the method (1). We found ahigh interindividual variability in plasma levels of these drugs in a study populationof 300 patients. The plasma level measurements, with some preliminaryclinical and pharmacogenetic results, will be presented. Conclusion: A simpleLC-MS method was developed for plasma level determination of antidementiadrugs which was successfully used in a clinical study with 300 patients.

Biogeographic analysis of Crocidiinae (Diptera, Bombyliidae): finding congruence among morphological, molecular, fossil and paleogeographical data

Biogeographic studies dealing with Bombyliidae are rare in the literature and no information is available on its origin and early diversification. In this study, we found evidence from molecular phylogeny and from fossil record supporting a Middle Jurassic origin of the Bombylioidea, taken as a starting point to discuss the biogeography and diversification of Crocidiinae. Based on a previously published phylogenetic hypothesis, we performed a Brooks Parsimony Analysis (BPA) to discuss the biogeographical history of Crocidiinae lineages. This subfamily is mostly distributed over arid areas of the early components of the Gondwanaland: Chile and southern Africa, but also in southwestern Palaearctic and southwestern Nearctic. The vicariant events affecting the Crocidiinae biogeography at the generic level seems to be related to the sequential separation of a Laurasian clade from a Gondwanan clade followed by the splitting of the latter into smaller components. This also leads to a hypothesis of origin of the Crocidiinae in the Middle Jurassic, the same period in which other bombyliid lineages are supposed to have arisen and irradiated.

Inequality over the business cycle: Estimating income risk using micro-data on consumption

We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income, to evaluate the nature of increased income inequality in the 1980s and 90s. We decompose unexpected changes in family income into transitory and permanent, and idiosyncratic and aggregate components, and estimate the contribution of each component to total inequality. The model we use is a linearized incomplete markets model, enriched to incorporate risk-sharing while maintaining tractability. Our estimates suggest that taking risk sharing into account is important for the model fit; that the increase in inequality in the 1980s was mainly permanent; and that inequality is driven almost entirely by idiosyncratic income risk. In addition we find no evidence for cyclical behavior of consumption risk, casting doubt on Constantinides and Duffie s (1995) explanation for the equity premium puzzle.

It's still 2%: evidence on convergence from 116 years of the US States panel data

A new debate over the speed of convergence in per capita income across economies is going on. Cross sectional estimates support the idea of slow convergence of about two percent per year. Panel data estimates support the idea of fast convergence of five, ten or even twenty percent per year. This paper shows that, if you ``do it right'', even the panel data estimation method yields the result of slow convergence of about two percent per year.

Organização e Publicação dos Termos do Website da ANACOM sob uma Perspetiva Linked Open Data

O propósito da Web Semântica é conseguir uma Web de dados totalmente ligada, isto é, numa perspetiva Linked Open Data. A Web Semântica deve garantir (estabelecendo padrões tecnológicos, vocabulários, linguagens lógicas, etc.) que os conteúdos publicados na Websejam inteligíveis quer por agentes humanos, quer por agentes máquina. Esta dissertação tem como objetivo responder à um problema delimitado, propondo uma solução no quadro da Web Semântica e suas tecnologias. Partindo-se de uma lista de termos em linguagem natural utilizados no Website da ANACOM (Autoridade Nacional de Comunicações), propomos uma organização de acordo com metodologias de construção de ontologias e vocabulários. Inspirámo-nos em duas metodologias, o Ontology Development 101 e o Process and Methodology for Core Vocabularies. O vocabulário controlado resultante, tem como base tecnológica o modelo de organização de conhecimento, recomendado pelo W3C (World Wide Web Consortium), o SKOS (Simple Knowledge Organization System). Trata-sede uma tecnologia standard da W3C desde 2009, utilizada na criação de tesauros,esquemas de classificação, taxonomias, glossários e outros tipos de vocabulários controlados. Como resultado da nossa intervenção, conseguimos organizar e codificar em SKOS, cerca de cinco centenas de termos identificados no Website da ANACOM. Para além da proposta do vocabulário controlado, passámos em revista às tecnologias e teorias que sustentam a temática da Web Semântica.

Hybrid consumption paths in the attribute space: A model and application with scanner data

This paper presents and estimates a dynamic choice model in the attribute space considering rational consumers. In light of the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the standard attribute-based model is extended by considering a general utility function where pure inertia and pure variety-seeking behaviors can be explained in the model as particular linear cases. The dynamics of the model are fully characterized by standard dynamic programming techniques. The model presents a stationary consumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buys one product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer shifts among varied products.We run some simulations to analyze the consumption paths out of the steady state. Underthe hybrid utility assumption, the consumer behaves inertially among the unfamiliar brandsfor several periods, eventually switching to a variety-seeking behavior when the stationary levels are approached. An empirical analysis is run using scanner databases for three different product categories: fabric softener, saltine cracker, and catsup. Non-linear specifications provide the best fit of the data, as hybrid functional forms are found in all the product categories for most attributes and segments. These results reveal the statistical superiority of the non-linear structure and confirm the gradual trend to seek variety as the level of familiarity with the purchased items increases.