National exchange rate policies and international debt crises: how Brazil did not follow Argentina into a default in 2001-2002

This paper examines how exchange rate policies and IMF Stand-By Arrangements affect debt crises using econometrics and a comparison between Argentina and Brazil. It refines an existing diagram outlining crisis development to propose crisis prevention strategies. Flexible exchange rate policies reduce a country's probability of default by over 4%, but Stand-By Arrangements increase it by an inconsequential percentage. Unlike Argentina, Brazil avoided a default via a freely-floating exchange rate system, fiscal deficit reduction, and a cooperative and coordinated relationship with the IMF. The results provide policymakers from developing countries with lessons to manage their countries' default risks more effectively.

Produtividade do trabalho e mudança estrutural nas indústrias brasileiras extrativa e de transformação, 1970-2001

Using an indicator of labor productivity, this paper aims to assess the contribution of structural changes in the Brazilian manufacturing and mining industries to productivity growth, during the 1970-2001 period. The conclusion is that: (i) there is no evidence to sustain that the Brazilian industry has definitely reversed the productivity growth rates slowdown trend; (ii) there is no clear evidence of a positive influence of the structural bonus; and (iii) job creation seems to be concentrated in low productivity growth sectors.

Determinantes da recuperação do emprego formal no Brasil: evidências para o período 2001/2005 e hipoteses para uma agenda de pesquisa

Decisive factors affecting the recent increase in formal employment in Brazil. This paper gives a general overview of the evolution of labour market indicators between 1995 and 2005 in Brazil. It shows an overall increase in formal employment rates from 2001 to 2005, as opposite to what had happened from 1995 to 1999. It is argued that such recent trends might indicate the reconfiguration of the labour market in better terms, with potential positive consequences to the finance performance of the Social Security sector. The paper also examines some of the major factors associated with this new trend and their chances to maintain such tendency in the near future. It's important to notice that all of them may be subject to some kind of political management by the State. In other words, we suggest that there are suficient instruments and operative skills in the Brazilian State to make these and others factors work in favour of a more persistent strategy of development with social inclusion through labour.

Vulnerabilidade externa e composição da posição internacional de investimentos: Brasil 2001-2010

The aim of this paper is to indicate that there was a significant change in the composition of the Brazilian International Investment Position in the period 2001-2010: international reserves became higher than the external debt and decreased the share of foreign liabilities denominated in foreign currency, getting smaller that the participation of the external liabilities denominated in domestic currency. These tend to suffer a double devaluation (prices and exchange rates) in times of crisis, thus characterizing the reduction of the external vulnerability in the financial sphere as evidenced in the global crisis hatched in 2008.