Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet

This article designs what it calls a Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (the risk being that of default by customers), a tool which, in principle, can contribute to revealing, controlling and managing the bad debt risk arising from a company¿s commercial credit, whose amount can represent a significant proportion of both its current and total assets.To construct it, we start from the duality observed in any credit transaction of this nature, whose basic identity can be summed up as Credit = Risk. ¿Credit¿ is granted by a company to its customer, and can be ranked by quality (we suggest the credit scoring system) and ¿risk¿ can either be assumed (interiorised) by the company itself or transferred to third parties (exteriorised).What provides the approach that leads to us being able to talk with confidence of a real Credit-Risk Balance Sheet with its methodological robustness is that the dual vision of the credit transaction is not, as we demonstrate, merely a classificatory duality (a double risk-credit classification of reality) but rather a true causal relationship, that is, a risk-credit causal duality.Once said Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (which bears a certain structural similarity with the classic net asset balance sheet) has been built, and its methodological coherence demonstrated, its properties ¿static and dynamic¿ are studied.Analysis of the temporal evolution of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet and of its applications will be the object of subsequent works.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet (II). The evolution of its structure

This article has an immediate predecessor, upon which it is based and with which readers must necessarily be familiar: Towards a Theory of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (Vallverdú, Somoza and Moya, 2006). The Balance Sheet is conceptualised on the basis of the duality of a credit-based transaction; it deals with its theoretical foundations, providing evidence of a causal credit-risk duality, that is, a true causal relationship; its characteristics, properties and its static and dynamic characteristics are analyzed. This article, which provides a logical continuation to the previous one, studies the evolution of the structure of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet as a consequence of a business¿s dynamics in the credit area. Given the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet of a company at any given time, it attempts to estimate, by means of sequential analysis, its structural evolution, showing its usefulness in the management and control of credit and risk. To do this, it bases itself, with the necessary adaptations, on the by-now classic works of Palomba and Cutolo. The establishment of the corresponding transformation matrices allows one to move from an initial balance sheet structure to a final, future one, to understand its credit-risk situation trends, as well as to make possible its monitoring and control, basic elements in providing support for risk management.

Mitochondrial DNA variation along an altitudinal gradient in the greater white-toothed shrew, Crocidura russula.

The distribution of mitochondrial control region-sequence polymorphism was investigated in 15 populations of Crocidura russula along an altitudinal gradient in western Switzerland. High-altitude populations are smaller, sparser and appear to undergo frequent bottlenecks. Accordingly, they showed a loss of rare haplotypes, but unexpectedly, were less differentiated than lowland populations. Furthermore, the major haplotypes segregated significantly with altitude. The results were inconsistent with a simple model of drift and dispersal. They suggested instead a role for historical patterns of colonization, or, alternatively, present-day selective forces acting on one of the mitochondrial genes involved in metabolic pathways.

Ruin Theory with Excess of Loss Reinsurance and Reinstatements

The present paper studies the probability of ruin of an insurer, if excess of loss reinsurance with reinstatements is applied. In the setting of the classical Cramer-Lundberg risk model, piecewise deterministic Markov processes are used to describe the free surplus process in this more general situation. It is shown that the finite-time ruin probability is both the solution of a partial integro-differential equation and the fixed point of a contractive integral operator. We exploit the latter representation to develop and implement a recursive algorithm for numerical approximation of the ruin probability that involves high-dimensional integration. Furthermore we study the behavior of the finite-time ruin probability under various levels of initial surplus and security loadings and compare the efficiency of the numerical algorithm with the computational alternative of stochastic simulation of the risk process. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Intraspecific genetic variation in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and its consequences for molecular biology, ecology, and development of inoculum

It has been known for some time that different arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal (AMF) taxa confer differences in plant growth. Although genetic variation within AMF species has been given less attention, it could potentially be an ecologically important source of variation. Ongoing studies on variability in AMF genes within Glomus intraradices indicate that at least for some genes, such as the BiP gene, sequence variability can be high, even in coding regions. This suggests that genetic variation within an AMF may not be selectively neutral. This clearly needs to be investigated in more detail for other coding regions of AMF genomes. Similarly, studies on AMF population genetics indicate high genetic variation in AMF populations, and a considerable amount of variation seen in phenotypes in the population can be attributed to genetic differences among the fungi. The existence of high within-species genetic variation could have important consequences for how investigations on AMF gene expression and function are conducted. Furthermore, studies of within-species genetic variability and how it affects variation in plant growth will help to identify at what level of precision ecological studies should be conducted to identify AMF in plant roots in the field. A population genetic approach to studying AMF genetic variability can also be useful for inoculum development. By knowing the amount of genetic variability in an AMF population, the maximum and minimum numbers of spores that will contain a given amount of genetic diversity can be estimated. This could be particularly useful for developing inoculum with high adaptability to different environments.

Auction theory, sequential local service privatization, and the effects of geographical scale economies on effective competition

A sequential weakly efficient two-auction game with entry costs, interdependence between objects, two potential bidders and IPV assumption is presented here in order to give some theoretical predictions on the effects of geographical scale economies on local service privatization performance. It is shown that the first object seller takes profit of this interdependence. The interdependence externality rises effective competition for the first object, expressed as the probability of having more than one final bidder. Besides, if there is more than one final bidder in the first auction, seller extracts the entire bidder¿s expected future surplus differential between having won the first auction and having lost. Consequences for second object seller are less clear, reflecting the contradictory nature of the two main effects of object interdependence. On the one hand, first auction winner becomes ¿stronger¿, so that expected payments rise in a competitive environment. On the other hand, first auction loser becomes relatively ¿weaker¿, hence (probably) reducing effective competition for the second object. Additionally, some contributions to static auction theory with entry cost and asymmetric bidders are presented in the appendix

Modeling water movement in horizontal columns using fractal theory

Fractal mathematics has been used to characterize water and solute transport in porous media and also to characterize and simulate porous media properties. The objective of this study was to evaluate the correlation between the soil infiltration parameters sorptivity (S) and time exponent (n) and the parameters dimension (D) and the Hurst exponent (H). For this purpose, ten horizontal columns with pure (either clay or loam) and heterogeneous porous media (clay and loam distributed in layers in the column) were simulated following the distribution of a deterministic Cantor Bar with fractal dimension H" 0.63. Horizontal water infiltration experiments were then simulated using Hydrus 2D software. The sorptivity (S) and time exponent (n) parameters of the Philip equation were estimated for each simulation, using the nonlinear regression procedure of the statistical software package SAS®. Sorptivity increased in the columns with the loam content, which was attributed to the relation of S with the capillary radius. The time exponent estimated by nonlinear regression was found to be less than the traditional value of 0.5. The fractal dimension estimated from the Hurst exponent was 17.5 % lower than the fractal dimension of the Cantor Bar used to generate the columns.

Seismic reflectivity of the sediment-covered seafloor: Effects of velocity gradients and fine-scale layering

Knowledge of the reflectivity of the sediment-covered seabed is of significant importance to marine seismic data acquisition and interpretation as it governs the generation of reverberations in the water layer. In this context pertinent, but largely unresolved, questions concern the importance of the typically very prominent vertical seismic velocity gradients as well as the potential presence and magnitude of anisotropy in soft surficial seabed sediments. To address these issues, we explore the seismic properties of granulometric end-member-type clastic sedimentary seabed models consisting of sand, silt, and clay as well as scale-invariant stochastic layer sequences of these components characterized by realistic vertical gradients of the P- and S-wave velocities. Using effective media theory, we then assess the nature and magnitude of seismic anisotropy associated with these models. Our results indicate that anisotropy is rather benign for P-waves, and that the S-wave velocities in the axial directions differ only slightly. Because of the very high P- to S-wave velocity ratios in the vicinity of the seabed our models nevertheless suggest that S-wave triplications may occur at very small incidence angles. To numerically evaluate the P-wave reflection coefficient of our seabed models, we apply a frequency-slowness technique to the corresponding synthetic seismic wavefields. Comparison with analytical plane-wave reflection coefficients calculated for corresponding isotropic elastic half-space models shows that the differences tend to be most pronounced in the vicinity of the elastic equivalent of the critical angle as well as in the post-critical range. We also find that the presence of intrinsic anisotropy in the clay component of our layered models tends to dramatically reduce the overall magnitude of the P-wave reflection coefficient as well as its variation with incidence angle.

Altitudinal variation in haemosporidian parasite distribution in great tit populations.

BACKGROUND: One of the major issues concerning disease ecology and conservation is knowledge of the factors that influence the distribution of parasites and consequently disease outbreaks. This study aimed to investigate avian haemosporidian composition and the distribution of these parasites in three altitudinally separated great tit (Parus major) populations in western Switzerland over a three-year period. The objectives were to determine the lineage diversity of parasites occuring across the study populations and to investigate whether altitudinal gradients govern the distribution of haemosporidian parasites by lineage. METHODS: In this study molecular approaches (PCR and sequencing) were used to detect avian blood parasites (Plasmodium sp., Haemoproteus sp. and Leucocytozoon sp.) in populations of adult great tits caught on their nests during three consecutive breeding seasons. RESULTS: High levels of parasite prevalence (88-96%) were found across all of the study populations with no significant altitude effect. Altitude did, however, govern the distribution of parasites belonging to different genera, with Plasmodium parasites being more prevalent at lower altitudes, Leucocytozoon parasites more at high altitude and Haemoproteus parasite prevalence increasing with altitude. A total of 27 haemosporidian parasite lineages were recorded across all study sites, with diversity showing a positive correlation to altitude. Parasites belonging to lineage SGS1 (P. relictum) and PARUS4 and PARUS19 (Leucocytozoon sp.) dominated lower altitudes. SW2 (P. polare) was the second most prevalent lineage of parasite detected overall and these parasites were responsible for 68% of infections at intermediate altitude, but were only documented at this one study site. CONCLUSIONS: Avian haemosporidian parasites are not homogeneously distributed across host populations, but differ by altitude. This difference is most probably brought about by environmental factors influencing vector prevalence and distribution. The high occurrence of co-infection by different genera of parasites might have pronounced effects on host fitness and should consequently be investigated more rigorously.

Variation in soil organic carbon and thickness of soil horizons within a boreal forest stand - effect of trees and implications for sampling

Summary

Numerical modeling of the effect of variation of boundary conditions on vadose zone hydraulic properties

An accurate estimation of hydraulic fluxes in the vadose zone is essential for the prediction of water, nutrient and contaminant transport in natural systems. The objective of this study was to simulate the effect of variation of boundary conditions on the estimation of hydraulic properties (i.e. water content, effective unsaturated hydraulic conductivity and hydraulic flux) in a one-dimensional unsaturated flow model domain. Unsaturated one-dimensional vertical water flow was simulated in a pure phase clay loam profile and in clay loam interlayered with silt loam distributed according to the third iteration of the Cantor Bar fractal object Simulations were performed using the numerical model Hydrus 1D. The upper and lower pressure heads were varied around average values of -55 cm for the near-saturation range. This resulted in combinations for the upper and lower constant head boundary conditions, respectively, of -50 and -60 cm, -40 and -70 cm, -30 and -80 cm, -20 and -90 cm, and -10 and -100 cm. For the drier range the average head between the upper and lower boundary conditions was set to -550 cm, resulting in the combinations -500 and -600 cm, -400 and -700 cm, -300 and -800 cm, -200 and -900 cm, and -100 and -1,000 cm, for upper and lower boundary conditions, respectively. There was an increase in water contents, fluxes and hydraulic conductivities with the increase in head difference between boundary conditions. Variation in boundary conditions in the pure phase and interlayered one-dimensional profiles caused significant deviations in fluxes, water contents and hydraulic conductivities compared to the simplest case (a head difference between the upper and lower constant head boundaries of 10 cm in the wetter range and 100 cm in the drier range).