Predicting the extremes of Indian summer monsoon rainfall with coupled ocean-atmosphere models

An analysis of the retrospective predictions by seven coupled ocean atmosphere models from major forecasting centres of Europe and USA, aimed at assessing their ability in predicting the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), particularly the extremes (i.e. droughts and excess rainfall seasons) is presented in this article. On the whole, the skill in prediction of extremes is not bad since most of the models are able to predict the sign of the ISMR anomaly for a majority of the extremes. There is a remarkable coherence between the models in successes and failures of the predictions, with all the models generating loud false alarms for the normal monsoon season of 1997 and the excess monsoon season of 1983. It is well known that the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) play an important role in the interannual variation of ISMR and particularly the extremes. The prediction of the phases of these modes and their link with the monsoon has also been assessed. It is found that models are able to simulate ENSO-monsoon link realistically, whereas the EQUINOO-ISMR link is simulated realistically by only one model the ECMWF model. Furthermore, it is found that in most models this link is opposite to the observed, with the predicted ISMR being negatively (instead of positively) correlated with the rainfall over the western equatorial Indian Ocean and positively (instead of negatively) correlated with the rainfall over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Analysis of the seasons for which the predictions of almost all the models have large errors has suggested the facets of ENSO and EQUINOO and the links with the monsoon that need to be improved for improving monsoon predictions by these models.

Network properties of decoys and CASP predicted models: a comparison with native protein structures

Protein structure space is believed to consist of a finite set of discrete folds, unlike the protein sequence space which is astronomically large, indicating that proteins from the available sequence space are likely to adopt one of the many folds already observed. In spite of extensive sequence-structure correlation data, protein structure prediction still remains an open question with researchers having tried different approaches (experimental as well as computational). One of the challenges of protein structure prediction is to identify the native protein structures from a milieu of decoys/models. In this work, a rigorous investigation of Protein Structure Networks (PSNs) has been performed to detect native structures from decoys/ models. Ninety four parameters obtained from network studies have been optimally combined with Support Vector Machines (SVM) to derive a general metric to distinguish decoys/models from the native protein structures with an accuracy of 94.11%. Recently, for the first time in the literature we had shown that PSN has the capability to distinguish native proteins from decoys. A major difference between the present work and the previous study is to explore the transition profiles at different strengths of non-covalent interactions and SVM has indeed identified this as an important parameter. Additionally, the SVM trained algorithm is also applied to the recent CASP10 predicted models. The novelty of the network approach is that it is based on general network properties of native protein structures and that a given model can be assessed independent of any reference structure. Thus, the approach presented in this paper can be valuable in validating the predicted structures. A web-server has been developed for this purpose and is freely available at http://vishgraph.mbu.iisc.ernet.in/GraProStr/PSN-QA.html.

Implications of Higgs boson to diphoton decay rate in the bilinear R-parity violating supersymmetric model

The Large Hadron Collider has recently discovered a Higgs-like particle having a mass around 125 GeVand also indicated that there is an enhancement in the Higgs to diphoton decay rate as compared to that in the standard model. We have studied implications of these discoveries in the bilinear R-parity violating supersymmetric model, whose main motivation is to explain the nonzero masses for neutrinos. The R-parity violating parameters in this model are epsilon and b(epsilon), and these parameters determine the scale of neutrino masses. If the enhancement in the Higgs to diphoton decay rate is true, then we have found epsilon greater than or similar to 0.01 GeV and b epsilon similar to 1 GeV2 in order to be compatible with the neutrino oscillation data. Also, in the above mentioned analysis, we can determine the soft masses of sleptons (m(L)) and CP-odd Higgs boson mass (mA). We have estimated that m(L) greater than or similar to 300 GeV and m(A) greater than or similar to 700 GeV. We have also commented on the allowed values of epsilon and b(epsilon), in case there is no enhancement in the Higgs to diphoton decay rate. Finally, we present a model to explain the smallness of epsilon and b(epsilon).

GYROSONICS: SIGNATURE ANALYSIS AND REDUCED-ORDER MODELS

In this paper, the authors study the structure of a novel binaural sound with a certain phase and amplitude modulation and the response to this excitation when it is applied to natural rewarding circuit of human brain through auditory neural pathways. This novel excitation, also referred to as gyrosonic excitation in this work, has been found to have interesting effects such as stabilization effects on the left and right hemispheric brain signaling as captured by Galvanic Skin Resistance (GSR) measurements, control of cardiac rhythms (observed from ECG signals), mitigation of psychosomatic syndrome, and mitigation of migraine pain. Experimental data collected from human subjects are presented, and these data are examined to categorize the extent of systems disorder and reinforcement reward due to the gyrosonic stimulus. A multi-path reduced-order model has been developed to analyze the GSR signals. The filtered results are indicative of complicated reinforcing reward patterns due to the gyrosonic stimulation when it is used as a control input for patients with psychosomatic and cardiac disorders.

Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.

Experimental determination and activity coefficient based models for mixture solubilities of nitrophenol isomers in supercritical carbon dioxide

The experimental solubilities of the mixture of nitrophenol (m- and p-) isomers were determined at 308, 318 and 328 K over a pressure range of 10-17.55 MPa. Compared to the binary solubilities, the ternary solubilities of m-nitrophenol increased at 308, 318 and 328 K. The ternary solubilities of p-nitrophenol increased at 308 K, while the ternary solubilities decreased at lower pressures and increased at higher pressure at 318 and 328 K. The solubilities of the solid mixtures in supercritical carbon dioxide (SCCO2) were correlated with solution models by incorporating the non-idealities using activity coefficient based models. The Wilson and NRTL activity coefficient models were applied to determine the nature of the interactions between the molecules. The equation developed by using the NRTL model has three parameters and correlates mixture solubilities of solid solutes in terms of temperature and cosolute composition. The equation derived from the Wilson model contains five parameters and correlates solubilities in terms of temperature, density and cosolute composition. These two new equations developed in this work were used to correlate the solubilities of 25 binary solid mixtures including the current data. The average AARDs of the model equations derived using the NRTL and Wilson models for the solid mixtures were found to be 7% and 4%, respectively. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing resilience and state-transition models with historical records of cheatgrass Bromus tectorum invasion in North American sagebrush-steppe

1. Resilience-based approaches are increasingly being called upon to inform ecosystem management, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. This requires management frameworks that can assess ecosystem dynamics, both within and between alternative states, at relevant time scales. 2. We analysed long-term vegetation records from two representative sites in the North American sagebrush-steppe ecosystem, spanning nine decades, to determine if empirical patterns were consistent with resilience theory, and to determine if cheatgrass Bromus tectorum invasion led to thresholds as currently envisioned by expert-based state-and-transition models (STM). These data span the entire history of cheatgrass invasion at these sites and provide a unique opportunity to assess the impacts of biotic invasion on ecosystem resilience. 3. We used univariate and multivariate statistical tools to identify unique plant communities and document the magnitude, frequency and directionality of community transitions through time. Community transitions were characterized by 37-47% dissimilarity in species composition, they were not evenly distributed through time, their frequency was not correlated with precipitation, and they could not be readily attributed to fire or grazing. Instead, at both sites, the majority of community transitions occurred within an 8-10year period of increasing cheatgrass density, became infrequent after cheatgrass density peaked, and thereafter transition frequency declined. 4. Greater cheatgrass density, replacement of native species and indication of asymmetry in community transitions suggest that thresholds may have been exceeded in response to cheatgrass invasion at one site (more arid), but not at the other site (less arid). Asymmetry in the direction of community transitions also identified communities that were at-risk' of cheatgrass invasion, as well as potential restoration pathways for recovery of pre-invasion states. 5. Synthesis and applications. These results illustrate the complexities associated with threshold identification, and indicate that criteria describing the frequency, magnitude, directionality and temporal scale of community transitions may provide greater insight into resilience theory and its application for ecosystem management. These criteria are likely to vary across biogeographic regions that are susceptible to cheatgrass invasion, and necessitate more in-depth assessments of thresholds and alternative states, than currently available.

Membership models and the design of authentication protocols for MANETs

Authentication protocols are very much essential for secure communication in mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs). A number of authentication protocols for MANETs have been proposed in the literature which provide the basic authentication service while trying to optimize their performance and resource consumption parameters. A problem with most of these protocols is that the underlying networking environment on which they are applicable have been left unspecified. As a result, lack of specifications about the networking environments applicable to an authentication protocol for MANETs can mislead about the performance and the applicability of the protocol. In this paper, we first characterize networking environment for a MANET as its 'Membership Model' which is defined as a set of specifications related to the 'Membership Granting Server' (MGS) and the 'Membership Set Pattern' (MSP) of the MANET. We then identify various types of possible membership models for a MANET. In order to illustrate that while designing an authentication protocol for a MANET, it is very much necessary to consider the underlying membership model of the MANET, we study a set of six representative authentication protocols, and analyze their applicability for the membership models as enumerated in this paper. The analysis shows that the same protocol may not perform equally well in all membership models. In addition, there may be membership models which are important from the point of view of users, but for which no authentication protocol is available.

Predictability of nonstationary time series using wavelet and EMD based ARMA models

Research has been undertaken to ascertain the predictability of non-stationary time series using wavelet and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) based time series models. Methods have been developed in the past to decompose a time series into components. Forecasting of these components combined with random component could yield predictions. Using this ideology, wavelet and EMD analyses have been incorporated separately which decomposes a time series into independent orthogonal components with both time and frequency localizations. The component series are fit with specific auto-regressive models to obtain forecasts which are later combined to obtain the actual predictions. Four non-stationary streamflow sites (USGS data resources) of monthly total volumes and two non-stationary gridded rainfall sites (IMD) of monthly total rainfall are considered for the study. The predictability is checked for six and twelve months ahead forecasts across both the methodologies. Based on performance measures, it is observed that wavelet based method has better prediction capabilities over EMD based method despite some of the limitations of time series methods and the manner in which decomposition takes place. Finally, the study concludes that the wavelet based time series algorithm can be used to model events such as droughts with reasonable accuracy. Also, some modifications that can be made in the model have been discussed that could extend the scope of applicability to other areas in the field of hydrology. (C) 2013 Elesvier B.V. All rights reserved.

Experimental analysis of composite single-lap joints using digital image correlation and comparison with theoretical models

The demand for energy efficient, low weight structures has boosted the use of composite structures assembled using increased quantities of structural adhesives. Bonded structures may be subjected to severe working environments such as high temperature and moisture due to which the adhesive gets degraded over a period of time. This reduces the strength of a joint and leads to premature failure. Measurement of strains in the adhesive bondline at any point of time during service may be beneficial as an assessment can be made on the integrity of a joint and necessary preventive actions may be taken before failure. This paper presents an experimental approach of measuring peel and shear strains in the adhesive bondline of composite single-lap joints using digital image correlation. Different sets of composite adhesive joints with varied bond quality were prepared and subjected to tensile load during which digital images were taken and processed using digital image correlation software. The measured peel strain at the joint edge showed a rapid increase with the initiation of a crack till failure of the joint. The measured strains were used to compute the corresponding stresses assuming a plane strain condition and the results were compared with stresses predicted using theoretical models, namely linear and nonlinear adhesive beam models. A similar trend in stress distribution was observed. Further comparison of peel and shear strains also exhibited similar trend for both healthy and degraded joints. Maximum peel stress failure criterion was used to predict the failure load of a composite adhesive joint and a comparison was made between predicted and actual failure loads. The predicted failure loads from theoretical models were found to be higher than the actual failure load for all the joints.

Comparative Evaluation of Switching and Average Models of a DC-DC Boost Converter for Real-Time Simulation

This paper presents a comparative evaluation of the average and switching models of a dc-dc boost converter from the point of view of real-time simulation. Both the models are used to simulate the converter in real-time on a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) platform. The converter is considered to function over a wide range of operating conditions, and could do transition between continuous conduction mode (CCM) and discontinuous conduction mode (DCM). While the average model is known to be computationally efficient from the perspective of off-line simulation, the same is shown here to consume more logical resources than the switching model for real-time simulation of the dc-dc converter. Further, evaluation of the boundary condition between CCM and DCM is found to be the main reason for the increased consumption of resources by the average model.

Effects of initial height on the steady-state persistence probability of linear growth models

The effects of the initial height on the temporal persistence probability of steady-state height fluctuations in up-down symmetric linear models of surface growth are investigated. We study the (1 + 1)-dimensional Family model and the (1 + 1)-and (2 + 1)-dimensional larger curvature (LC) model. Both the Family and LC models have up-down symmetry, so the positive and negative persistence probabilities in the steady state, averaged over all values of the initial height h(0), are equal to each other. However, these two probabilities are not equal if one considers a fixed nonzero value of h(0). Plots of the positive persistence probability for negative initial height versus time exhibit power-law behavior if the magnitude of the initial height is larger than the interface width at saturation. By symmetry, the negative persistence probability for positive initial height also exhibits the same behavior. The persistence exponent that describes this power-law decay decreases as the magnitude of the initial height is increased. The dependence of the persistence probability on the initial height, the system size, and the discrete sampling time is found to exhibit scaling behavior.

LHC constraints on light neutralino dark matter in the MSSM

Light neutralino dark matter can be achieved in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model if staus are rather light, with mass around 100 GeV. We perform a detailed analysis of the relevant supersymmetric parameter space, including also the possibility of light selectons and smuons, and of light higgsino- or wino-like charginos. In addition to the latest limits from direct and indirect detection of dark matter, ATLAS and CMS constraints on electroweak-inos and on sleptons are taken into account using a ``simplified models'' framework. Measurements of the properties of the Higgs boson at 125 GeV, which constrain amongst others the invisible decay of the Higgs boson into a pair of neutralinos, are also implemented in the analysis. We show that viable neutralino dark matter can be achieved for masses as low as 15 GeV. In this case, light charginos close to the LEP bound are required in addition to light right-chiral staus. Significant deviations are observed in the couplings of the 125 GeV Higgs boson. These constitute a promising way to probe the light neutralino dark matter scenario in the next run of the LHC. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantum Phase Diagram of One-Dimensional Spin and Hubbard Models with Transitions to Bond Order Wave Phases

Similar quantum phase diagrams and transitions are found for three classes of one-dimensional models with equally spaced sites, singlet ground states (GS), inversion symmetry at sites and a bond order wave (BOW) phase in some sectors. The models are frustrated spin-1/2 chains with variable range exchange, half-filled Hubbard models with spin-independent interactions and modified Hubbard models with site energies for describing organic charge transfer salts. In some range of parameters, the models have a first order quantum transition at which the GS expectation value of the sublattice spin < S-A(2)> of odd or even-numbered sites is discontinuous. There is an intermediate BOW phase for other model parameters that lead to two continuous quantum transitions with continuous < S-A(2)>. Exact diagonalization of finite systems and symmetry arguments provide a unified picture of familiar 1D models that have appeared separately in widely different contexts.

Quantum Phase Diagram of One-Dimensional Spin and Hubbard Models with Transitions to Bond Order Wave Phases

Similar quantum phase diagrams and transitions are found for three classes of one-dimensional models with equally spaced sites, singlet ground states (GS), inversion symmetry at sites and a bond order wave (BOW) phase in some sectors. The models are frustrated spin-1/2 chains with variable range exchange, half-filled Hubbard models with spin-independent interactions and modified Hubbard models with site energies for describing organic charge transfer salts. In some range of parameters, the models have a first order quantum transition at which the GS expectation value of the sublattice spin < S-A(2)> of odd or even-numbered sites is discontinuous. There is an intermediate BOW phase for other model parameters that lead to two continuous quantum transitions with continuous < S-A(2)>. Exact diagonalization of finite systems and symmetry arguments provide a unified picture of familiar 1D models that have appeared separately in widely different contexts.