Divergent signal-to-noise ratio and stochastic resonance in monostable systems

We present a class of systems for which the signal-to-noise ratio always increases when increasing the noise and diverges at infinite noise level. This new phenomenon is a direct consequence of the existence of a scaling law for the signal-to-noise ratio and implies the appearance of stochastic resonance in some monostable systems. We outline applications of our results to a wide variety of systems pertaining to different scientific areas. Two particular examples are discussed in detail.

Stochastic multiresonance

We present a class of systems for which the signal-to-noise ratio as a function of the noise level may display a multiplicity of maxima. This phenomenon, referred to as stochastic multiresonance, indicates the possibility that periodic signals may be enhanced at multiple values of the noise level, instead of at a single value which has occurred in systems considered up to now in the framework of stochastic resonance.

Spatiotemporal stochastic resonance in the Swift-Hohenberg equation

We show the appearance of spatiotemporal stochastic resonance in the Swift-Hohenberg equation. This phenomenon emerges when a control parameter varies periodically in time around the bifurcation point. By using general scaling arguments and by taking into account the common features occurring in a bifurcation, we outline possible manifestations of the phenomenon in other pattern-forming systems.

Governor’s Office of Drug Control Policy Performance Plan, FY 2011

Agency Performance Plan, Governor’s Office of Drug Control Policy

Governor’s Office of Drug Control Policy Performance Plan, FY 2012

Agency Performance Plan, Governor’s Office of Drug Control Policy

Kernel-based mapping of orographic rainfall enhancement in the Swiss Alps as detected by weatherradar

In this paper, we develop a data-driven methodology to characterize the likelihood of orographic precipitation enhancement using sequences of weather radar images and a digital elevation model (DEM). Geographical locations with topographic characteristics favorable to enforce repeatable and persistent orographic precipitation such as stationary cells, upslope rainfall enhancement, and repeated convective initiation are detected by analyzing the spatial distribution of a set of precipitation cells extracted from radar imagery. Topographic features such as terrain convexity and gradients computed from the DEM at multiple spatial scales as well as velocity fields estimated from sequences of weather radar images are used as explanatory factors to describe the occurrence of localized precipitation enhancement. The latter is represented as a binary process by defining a threshold on the number of cell occurrences at particular locations. Both two-class and one-class support vector machine classifiers are tested to separate the presumed orographic cells from the nonorographic ones in the space of contributing topographic and flow features. Site-based validation is carried out to estimate realistic generalization skills of the obtained spatial prediction models. Due to the high class separability, the decision function of the classifiers can be interpreted as a likelihood or susceptibility of orographic precipitation enhancement. The developed approach can serve as a basis for refining radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates and short-term forecasts or for generating stochastic precipitation ensembles conditioned on the local topography.

Results from the Testing of Adulterated Anhydrous Ammonia Provided by the State of Iowa's Office of Drug Control Policy, March 15, 2004

The report of adulterated anhydrous ammonia did not completely prevent the manufacture of methamphetamine. The amount of the methamphetamine manufactured using the adulterated ammonia was consistently very low. Although clandestine laboratory "field-like" reaction conditions were mimicked for purposes of these tests it should be noted that no attempts were made to distill the adulterated anhydrous ammonia.

Policy Addressing Civil Rights/Discrimination Complaints, January 3, 2011

The Iowa Governor’s Office of Drug Control Policy (ODCP) shall comply with all applicable federal and state laws prohibiting discrimination, as well as the State of Iowa’s Equal Opportunity, Affirmative Action and Anti-Discrimination Policy for Executive Branch Employees (Section 2.40 of Iowa Department of Administrative Services Managers and Supervisors Manual). Federal law prohibits discrimination against individuals or groups, either in employment or in the delivery of services or benefits, on the basis of age, race, color, national origin, religion, sex, or disability. State law prohibits discrimination in the areas of employment, housing, credit, public accommodations and education. Under the Iowa Civil Rights Act of 1965, discrimination, or different treatment, is illegal if based on race, color, creed, national origin, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, pregnancy, physical disability, mental disability, retaliation (because of filing a previous discrimination complaint, participating in an investigation of a discrimination complaint, or having opposed discriminatory conduct), age (in employment and credit), familial status (in housing and credit) or marital status (in credit). State policy requires all employees and applicants for employment in the executive branch be afforded equal access. The intent of this policy is to ensure that employment opportunities, within the executive branch of state government, are accessible to all persons, and that executive branch agencies do not discriminate against any person because of race, creed, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, or physical or mental disability.

Absence of epidemic threshold in scale free networks with degree correlations

Random scale-free networks have the peculiar property of being prone to the spreading of infections. Here we provide for the susceptible-infected-susceptible model an exact result showing that a scale-free degree distribution with diverging second moment is a sufficient condition to have null epidemic threshold in unstructured networks with either assortative or disassortative mixing. Degree correlations result therefore irrelevant for the epidemic spreading picture in these scale-free networks. The present result is related to the divergence of the average nearest neighbors degree, enforced by the degree detailed balance condition.

On the problematic of reserving and stochastic loss models

Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.

Coherent stochastic resonance

We consider Brownian motion on a line terminated by two trapping points. A bias term in the form of a telegraph signal is applied to this system. It is shown that the first two moments of survival time exhibit a minimum at the same resonant frequency.

The Impact of Senate File 169 on Meth Abuse in Iowa A Report to the Legislature by Drug Policy, January 17, 2006

This report is respectfully submitted in satisfaction of the following Senate File 169 requirement, as approved by the 2005 Iowa Legislature: “The Drug Policy Coordinator shall report, in a joint meeting, to the Committee on Judiciary of the Senate and the Committee on Public Safety of the House of Representatives in January 2006 and in January 2007, the effects of this Act on methamphetamine abuse and related criminal activity.” (*Please note that all data contained in this document are preliminary, based on the most recent information available to the Governor’s Office of Drug Control Policy.)

Governor's Office of Drug Control Policy Five-Year Strategic Plan July 1, 2003-June 30, 2008

The Office of the Drug Policy Coordinator is established in Chapter 80E of the Code of Iowa. The Coordinator directs the Governor’s Office of Drug Control Policy; coordinates and monitors all statewide counter-drug efforts, substance abuse treatment grants and programs, and substance abuse prevention and education programs; and engages in other related activities involving the Departments of public safety, corrections, education, public health, and human services. The coordinator assists in the development of local and community strategies to fight substance abuse, including local law enforcement, education, and treatment activities. The Drug Policy Coordinator serves as chairperson to the Drug Policy Advisory Council. The council includes the directors of the departments of corrections, education, public health, public safety, human services, division of criminal and juvenile justice planning, and human rights. The Council also consists of a prosecuting attorney, substance abuse treatment specialist, substance abuse prevention specialist, substance abuse treatment program director, judge, and one representative each from the Iowa Association of Chiefs of Police and Peace Officers, the Iowa State Police Association, and the Iowa State Sheriff’s and Deputies’ Association. Council members are appointed by the Governor and confirmed by the Senate. The council makes policy recommendations related to substance abuse education, prevention, and treatment, and drug enforcement. The Council and the Coordinator oversee the development and implementation of a comprehensive State of Iowa Drug Control Strategy. The Office of Drug Control Policy administers federal grant programs to improve the criminal justice system by supporting drug enforcement, substance abuse prevention and offender treatment programs across the state. The ODCP prepares and submits the Iowa Drug and Violent Crime Control Strategy to the U.S. Department of Justice, with recommendations from the Drug Policy Advisory Council. The ODCP also provides program and fiscal technical assistance to state and local agencies, as well as program evaluation and grants management.