Solvency Capital estimation and Risk Measures

This paper examines why a financial entity’s solvency capital estimation might be underestimated if the total amount required is obtained directly from a risk measurement. Using Monte Carlo simulation we show that, in some instances, a common risk measure such as Value-at-Risk is not subadditive when certain dependence structures are considered. Higher risk evaluations are obtained for independence between random variables than those obtained in the case of comonotonicity. The paper stresses, therefore, the relationship between dependence structures and capital estimation.

Risk factors for positive tuberculin skin tests among migrant and resident children in Lausanne, Switzerland.

SETTING: Ambulatory paediatric clinic in Lausanne, Switzerland, a country with a significant proportion of tuberculosis (TB) among immigrants. AIM: To assess the factors associated with positive tuberculin skin tests (TST) among children examined during a health check-up or during TB contact tracing, notably the influence of BCG vaccination (Bacille Calmette Guérin) and history of TB contact. METHOD: A descriptive study of children who had a TST (2 Units RT23) between November 2002 and April 2004. Age, sex, history of TB contact, BCG vaccination status, country of origin and birth outside Switzerland were recorded. RESULTS: Of 234 children, 176 (75%) had a reaction equal to zero and 31 (13%) tested positive (>10 mm). In a linear regression model, the size of the TST varied significantly according to the history of TB contact, age, TB incidence in the country of origin and BCG vaccination status but not according to sex or birth in or outside Switzerland. In a logistic regression model including all the recorded variables, age (Odds Ratio = 1.21, 95% CI 1.08; 1.35), a history of TB contact (OR = 7.31, 95% CI 2.23; 24) and the incidence of TB in the country of origin (OR = 1.01, 95% CI 1.00; 1.02) were significantly associated with a positive TST but sex (OR = 1.18, 95% CI 0.50; 2.78) and BCG vaccination status (OR = 2.97, 95% CI 0.91; 9.72) were not associated. CONCLUSIONS: TB incidence in the country of origin, BCG vaccination and age influence the TSTreaction (size or proportion of TST > or = 10 mm). However the most obvious risk factor for a positive TST is a history of contact with TB.

Risk Management Induction & Awareness (PDF 324 KB)

What You Need to Know

Health-risk behaviors and quality of life among young men.

PURPOSE: To examine the associations between substance use and other health-risk behaviors and quality of life (QOL) among young men. METHODS: The analytical sample consisted of 5,306 young Swiss men who participated in the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors. Associations between seven distinct self-reported health-risk behaviors (risky single-occasion drinking; volume drinking; cigarette smoking; cannabis use; use of any other illicit drugs; sexual intercourse without a condom; low physical activity) were assessed via chi-square analysis. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to study the associations between each particular health-risk behavior and either physical or mental QOL (assessed with the SF-12v2) while adjusting for socio-demographic variables and the presence of all other health-risk behaviors. RESULTS: Most health-risk behaviors co-occurred. However, low physical activity was not or negatively related to other health-risk behaviors. Almost all health-risk behaviors were associated with a greater likelihood of compromised QOL. However, sexual intercourse without a condom (not associated with both physical and mental QOL) and frequent risky single-occasion drinking (not related to mental QOL after adjusting for the presence of other health-risk behaviors; positively associated with physical QOL) differed from this pattern. CONCLUSIONS: Health-risk behaviors are mostly associated with compromised QOL. However, sexual intercourse without a condom and frequent risky single-occasion drinking differ from this pattern and are therefore possibly particularly difficult to change relative to other health-risk behaviors.

Sexual Offending in Northern Ireland - Managing the Risk

Sexual Offending in Northern Ireland - Managing the Risk

Guidance on Discharge from Hospital and the Continuing Care in the Community of People with a Mental Disorder who could Represent a Risk of Serious Physical Harm to Themselves or Others (PDF 985 KB)

Guidance on Discharge from Hospital and the Continuing Care in the Community of People with a Mental Disorder who could Represent a Risk of Serious Physical Harm to Themselves or Others

Hepatitis C prevalence and risk factors in hemodialysis patients in Central Brazil: a survey by polymerase chain reaction and serological methods

An hemodialysis population in Central Brazil was screened by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and serological methods to assess the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and to investigate associated risk factors. All hemodialysis patients (n=428) were interviewed in eight dialysis units in Goiânia city. Blood samples were collected and serum samples screened for anti-HCV antibodies by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Positive samples were retested for confirmation with a line immunoassay (LIA). All samples were also tested for HCV RNA by the PCR. An overall prevalence of 46.7% (CI 95%: 42-51.5) was found, ranging from 20.7% (CI 95%: 8.8-38.1) to 90.4% (CI 95%: 79.9-96.4) depending on the dialysis unit. Of the 428 patients, 185 were found to be seropositive by ELISA, and 167 were confirmed positive by LIA, resulting in an anti-HCV prevalence of 39%. A total of 131 patients were HCV RNA-positive. HCV viremia was present in 63.5% of the anti-HCV-positive patients and in 10.3% of the anti-HCV-negative patients. Univariate analysis of risk factors showed that the number of previous blood transfusions, transfusion of blood before mandatory screening for anti-HCV, length of time on hemodialysis, and treatment in multiple units were associated with HCV positivity. However, multivariate analysis revealed that blood transfusion before screening for anti-HCV and length of time on hemodialysis were significantly associated with HCV infection in this population. These data suggest that nosocomial transmission may play a role in the spread of HCV in the dialysis units studied. In addition to anti-HCV screening, HCV RNA detection is necessary for the diagnosis of HCV infection in hemodialysis patients.

Suboptimal Management of Coronary Risk in Daily Clinical Practice: Results from a Mediterranean Cohort of HIV-Infected Patients With Myocardial Infarction

Background: The incidence of cardiovascular events in HIV patients has fallen. Methods: We identified 81 patients with a history of coronary events from 2 hospitals in Spain to evaluate management of CVRF before and after the event. Results: The prevalence of coronary events was 2.15%. At the time of the coronary event, CVRF were highly prevalent. Decrease in total cholesterol (P=0.025) and LDLc(P=0.004) was observed. LDLc and HDLc were determined and the percentage of patients with LDLc &100 mg/dL remained stable at the last visit. Conclusions: The prevalence of coronary disease in our cohort was low. Although CVRF were highly.

Bone mineral density (BMD), micro-architecture estimation (TBS) and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) extracted from a single DXA device in combination with clinical risk factors improve significantly the identification of women at high risk of fracture

Introduction: Osteoporosis (OP) is a systemic skeletal disease characterized by a low bone mineral density (BMD) and a micro-architectural (MA) deterioration. Clinical risk factors (CRF) are often used as a MA approximation. MA is yet evaluable in daily practice by the Trabecular Bone Score (TBS) measure. TBS is a novel grey-level texture measurement reflecting bone micro-architecture based on the use of experimental variograms of 2D projection images. TBS is very simple to obtain, by reanalyzing a lumbar DXA-scan. TBS has proven to have diagnosis and prognosis value, partially independent of CRF and BMD. The aim of the OsteoLaus cohort is to combine in daily practice the CRF and the information given by DXA (BMD, TBS and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA)) to better identify women at high fracture risk. Method: The OsteoLaus cohort (1400 women 50 to 80 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland) started in 2010. This study is derived from the cohort COLAUS who started in Lausanne in 2003. The main goals of COLAUS is to obtain information on the epidemiology and genetic determinants of cardiovascular risk in 6700 men and women. CRF for OP, bone ultrasound of the heel, lumbar spine and hip BMD, VFA by DXA and MA evaluation by TBS are recorded in OsteoLaus. Preliminary results are reported. Results: We included 631 women: mean age 67.4±6.7 y, BMI 26.1±4.6, mean lumbar spine BMD 0.943±0.168 (T-score -1.4 SD), TBS 1.271±0.103. As expected, correlation between BMD and site matched TBS is low (r2=0.16). Prevalence of VFx grade 2/3, major OP Fx and all OP Fx is 8.4%, 17.0% and 26.0% respectively. Age- and BMI-adjusted ORs (per SD decrease) are 1.8 (1.2- 2.5), 1.6 (1.2-2.1), 1.3 (1.1-1.6) for BMD for the different categories of fractures and 2.0 (1.4-3.0), 1.9 (1.4-2.5), 1.4 (1.1-1.7) for TBS respectively. Only 32 to 37% of women with OP Fx have a BMD < -2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200. If we combine a BMD < -2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200, 54 to 60% of women with an osteoporotic Fx are identified. Conclusion: As in the already published studies, these preliminary results confirm the partial independence between BMD and TBS. More importantly, a combination of TBS subsequent to BMD increases significantly the identification of women with prevalent OP Fx which would have been miss-classified by BMD alone. For the first time we are able to have complementary information about fracture (VFA), density (BMD), micro- and macro architecture (TBS & HAS) from a simple, low ionizing radiation and cheap device: DXA. Such complementary information is very useful for the patient in the daily practice and moreover will likely have an impact on cost effectiveness analysis.

Subclinical hypothyroidism and the risk of heart failure, other cardiovascular events, and death.

BACKGROUND: Subclinical hypothyroidism has been associated with systolic and diastolic cardiac dysfunction and an elevated cholesterol level, but data on cardiovascular outcomes and death are limited. METHODS: We studied 2730 men and women, aged 70 to 79 years, with baseline thyrotropin (TSH) measurements and 4-year follow-up data to determine whether subclinical hypothyroidism was associated with congestive heart failure (CHF), coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral arterial disease, and cardiovascular-related and total mortality. After the exclusion of participants with abnormal thyroxine levels, subclinical hypothyroidism was defined as a TSH level of 4.5 mIU/L or greater, and was further classified according to TSH levels (4.5-6.9, 7.0-9.9, and > or = 10.0 mIU/L). RESULTS: Subclinical hypothyroidism was present in 338 (12.4%) of the participants. Compared with euthyroid participants, CHF events occurred more frequently among those with a TSH level of 7.0 mIU/L or greater (35.0 vs 16.5 per 1000 person-years; P = .006), but not among those with TSH levels between 4.5 and 6.9 mIU/L. In multivariate analyses, the risk of CHF was higher among those with high TSH levels (TSH of 7.0-9.9 mIU/L: hazard ratio, 2.58 [95% confidence interval, 1.19-5.60]; and TSH of > or = 10.0 mIU/L: hazard ratio, 3.26 [95% confidence interval, 1.37-7.77]). Among the 2555 participants without CHF at baseline, the hazard ratio for incident CHF events was 2.33 (95% confidence interval, 1.10-4.96; P = .03) in those with a TSH of 7.0 mIU/L or greater. Subclinical hypothyroidism was not associated with increased risk for coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral arterial disease, or cardiovascular-related or total mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Subclinical hypothyroidism is associated with an increased risk of CHF among older adults with a TSH level of 7.0 mIU/L or greater, but not with other cardiovascular events and mortality. Further investigation is warranted to assess whether subclinical hypothyroidism causes or worsens preexisting heart failure.

Systematic evaluation of risk factors for diagnostic delay in inflammatory bowel

Aim: The diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), comprising Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), continues to present difficulties due to unspecific symptoms and limited test accuracies. We aimed to determine the diagnostic delay (time from first symptoms to IBD diagnosis) and to identify associated risk factors in a national cohort in Switzerland.¦Materials and Methods: A total of 1,591 IBD patients (932 CD, 625 UC, 34 indeterminate colitis) from the Swiss IBD cohort study (SIBDCS) were evaluated. The SIBDCS collects data on a large sample of IBD patients from hospitals and private practice across Switzerland through physician and patient questionnaires. The primary outcome measure was the diagnostic delay.¦Results: Diagnostic delay in CD patients was significantly longer compared to UC patients (median 9 vs. 4 months, P < 0.001). Seventy-five percent of CD patients were diagnosed within 24 months compared to 12 months for UC and 6 months for IC patients. Multivariate logistic regression identified age <40 years at diagnosis (OR 2.15, P = 0.010) and ileal disease (OR 1.69, P = 0.025) as independent risk factors for long diagnostic delay in CD (>24 months). A trend for long diagnostic delay (>12 months) was associated with NSAID intake (OR 1.75, P = 0.093) and male gender (OR 0.59, P = 0.079) in UC patients.¦Conclusions: Whereas the median delay for diagnosing CD, UC, and IC seems to be acceptable, there exists a long delay in a considerable proportion of CD patients. More public awareness work needs to be done in order to reduce patient's and doctor's delay in this target population.

Prospective evaluation of risk of vertebral fractures using quantitative ultrasound measurements and bone mineral density in a population-based sample of postmenopausal women: results of the Basel Osteoporosis Study.

OBJECTIVE: Prospective studies have shown that quantitative ultrasound (QUS) techniques predict the risk of fracture of the proximal femur with similar standardised risk ratios to dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Few studies have investigated these devices for the prediction of vertebral fractures. The Basel Osteoporosis Study (BOS) is a population-based prospective study to assess the performance of QUS devices and DXA in predicting incident vertebral fractures. METHODS: 432 women aged 60-80 years were followed-up for 3 years. Incident vertebral fractures were assessed radiologically. Bone measurements using DXA (spine and hip) and QUS measurements (calcaneus and proximal phalanges) were performed. Measurements were assessed for their value in predicting incident vertebral fractures using logistic regression. RESULTS: QUS measurements at the calcaneus and DXA measurements discriminated between women with and without incident vertebral fracture, (20% height reduction). The relative risks (RRs) for vertebral fracture, adjusted for age, were 2.3 for the Stiffness Index (SI) and 2.8 for the Quantitative Ultrasound Index (QUI) at the calcaneus and 2.0 for bone mineral density at the lumbar spine. The predictive value (AUC (95% CI)) of QUS measurements at the calcaneus remained highly significant (0.70 for SI, 0.72 for the QUI, and 0.67 for DXA at the lumbar spine) even after adjustment for other confounding variables. CONCLUSIONS: QUS of the calcaneus and bone mineral density measurements were shown to be significant predictors of incident vertebral fracture. The RRs for QUS measurements at the calcaneus are of similar magnitude as for DXA measurements.