Compositional Bayesian modelling and its application to decision support in crime investigation

J. Keppens, Q. Shen and M. Lee. Compositional Bayesian modelling and its application to decision support in crime investigation. Proceedings of the 19th International Workshop on Qualitative Reasoning, pages 138-148.

Career transitions in sport: European perspectives

Wylleman, P., Alfermann, D., Lavallee, D. (2004). Career transitions in sport: European perspectives. Psychology of Sport and Exercise, 5 (1), 7-20 RAE2008

OS Support for Portable Bulk Synchronous Parallel Programs

Predictability -- the ability to foretell that an implementation will not violate a set of specified reliability and timeliness requirements -- is a crucial, highly desirable property of responsive embedded systems. This paper overviews a development methodology for responsive systems, which enhances predictability by eliminating potential hazards resulting from physically-unsound specifications. The backbone of our methodology is the Time-constrained Reactive Automaton (TRA) formalism, which adopts a fundamental notion of space and time that restricts expressiveness in a way that allows the specification of only reactive, spontaneous, and causal computation. Using the TRA model, unrealistic systems – possessing properties such as clairvoyance, caprice, infinite capacity, or perfect timing -- cannot even be specified. We argue that this "ounce of prevention" at the specification level is likely to spare a lot of time and energy in the development cycle of responsive systems -- not to mention the elimination of potential hazards that would have gone, otherwise, unnoticed. The TRA model is presented to system developers through the Cleopatra programming language. Cleopatra features a C-like imperative syntax for the description of computation, which makes it easier to incorporate in applications already using C. It is event-driven, and thus appropriate for embedded process control applications. It is object-oriented and compositional, thus advocating modularity and reusability. Cleopatra is semantically sound; its objects can be transformed, mechanically and unambiguously, into formal TRA automata for verification purposes, which can be pursued using model-checking or theorem proving techniques. Since 1989, an ancestor of Cleopatra has been in use as a specification and simulation language for embedded time-critical robotic processes.

Angels: In Network Support for Minimum Distribution Time in P2P Overlays

This paper proposes the use of in-network caches (which we call Angels) to reduce the Minimum Distribution Time (MDT) of a file from a seeder – a node that possesses the file – to a set of leechers – nodes who are interested in downloading the file. An Angel is not a leecher in the sense that it is not interested in receiving the entire file, but rather it is interested in minimizing the MDT to all leechers, and as such uses its storage and up/down-link capacity to cache and forward parts of the file to other peers. We extend the analytical results by Kumar and Ross [1] to account for the presence of angels by deriving a new lower bound for the MDT. We show that this newly derived lower bound is tight by proposing a distribution strategy under assumptions of a fluid model. We present a GroupTree heuristic that addresses the impracticalities of the fluid model. We evaluate our designs through simulations that show that our Group-Tree heuristic outperforms other heuristics, that it scales well with the increase of the number of leechers, and that it closely approaches the optimal theoretical bounds.

Angels: In-Network Support for Minimum Distribution Time in P2P Overlays

This thesis proposes the use of in-network caches (which we call Angels) to reduce the Minimum Distribution Time (MDT) of a file from a seeder – a node that possesses the file – to a set of leechers – nodes who are interested in downloading the file. An Angel is not a leecher in the sense that it is not interested in receiving the entire file, but rather it is interested in minimizing the MDT to all leechers, and as such uses its storage and up/down-link capacity to cache and forward parts of the file to other peers. We extend the analytical results by Kumar and Ross (Kumar and Ross, 2006) to account for the presence of angels by deriving a new lower bound for the MDT. We show that this newly derived lower bound is tight by proposing a distribution strategy under assumptions of a fluid model. We present a GroupTree heuristic that addresses the impracticalities of the fluid model. We evaluate our designs through simulations that show that our GroupTree heuristic outperforms other heuristics, that it scales well with the increase of the number of leechers, and that it closely approaches the optimal theoretical bounds.

Simulations of X and Y Retinal Ganglion Cell Behavior with a Nonlinear Push-pull Model of Spatiotemporal Retinal Processing

This article describes a nonlinear model of neural processing in the vertebrate retina, comprising model photoreceptors, model push-pull bipolar cells, and model ganglion cells. Previous analyses and simulations have shown that with a choice of parameters that mimics beta cells, the model exhibits X-like linear spatial summation (null response to contrast-reversed gratings) in spite of photoreceptor nonlinearities; on the other hand, a choice of parameters that mimics alpha cells leads to Y-like frequency doubling. This article extends the previous work by showing that the model can replicate qualitatively many of the original findings on X and Y cells with a fixed choice of parameters. The results generally support the hypothesis that X and Y cells can be seen as functional variants of a single neural circuit. The model also suggests that both depolarizing and hyperpolarizing bipolar cells converge onto both ON and OFF ganglion cell types. The push-pull connectivity enables ganglion cells to remain sensitive to deviations about the mean output level of nonlinear photoreceptors. These and other properties of the push-pull model are discussed in the general context of retinal processing of spatiotemporal luminance patterns.

Synchronized Oscillations During Cooperative Feature Linking in a Cortical Model of Visual Perception

A neural network model of synchronized oscillator activity in visual cortex is presented in order to account for recent neurophysiological findings that such synchronization may reflect global properties of the stimulus. In these recent experiments, it was reported that synchronization of oscillatory firing responses to moving bar stimuli occurred not only for nearby neurons, but also occurred between neurons separated by several cortical columns (several mm of cortex) when these neurons shared some receptive field preferences specific to the stimuli. These results were obtained not only for single bar stimuli but also across two disconnected, but colinear, bars moving in the same direction. Our model and computer simulations obtain these synchrony results across both single and double bar stimuli. For the double bar case, synchronous oscillations are induced in the region between the bars, but no oscillations are induced in the regions beyond the stimuli. These results were achieved with cellular units that exhibit limit cycle oscillations for a robust range of input values, but which approach an equilibrium state when undriven. Single and double bar synchronization of these oscillators was achieved by different, but formally related, models of preattentive visual boundary segmentation and attentive visual object recognition, as well as nearest-neighbor and randomly coupled models. In preattentive visual segmentation, synchronous oscillations may reflect the binding of local feature detectors into a globally coherent grouping. In object recognition, synchronous oscillations may occur during an attentive resonant state that triggers new learning. These modelling results support earlier theoretical predictions of synchronous visual cortical oscillations and demonstrate the robustness of the mechanisms capable of generating synchrony.

Specification of optimum holistic building environmental and energy performance information to support informed decision making

Political drivers such as the Kyoto protocol, the EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive and the Energy end use and Services Directive have been implemented in response to an identified need for a reduction in human related CO2 emissions. Buildings account for a significant portion of global CO2 emissions, approximately 25-30%, and it is widely acknowledged by industry and research organisations that they operate inefficiently. In parallel, unsatisfactory indoor environmental conditions have proven to negatively impact occupant productivity. Legislative drivers and client education are seen as the key motivating factors for an improvement in the holistic environmental and energy performance of a building. A symbiotic relationship exists between building indoor environmental conditions and building energy consumption. However traditional Building Management Systems and Energy Management Systems treat these separately. Conventional performance analysis compares building energy consumption with a previously recorded value or with the consumption of a similar building and does not recognise the fact that all buildings are unique. Therefore what is required is a new framework which incorporates performance comparison against a theoretical building specific ideal benchmark. Traditionally Energy Managers, who work at the operational level of organisations with respect to building performance, do not have access to ideal performance benchmark information and as a result cannot optimally operate buildings. This thesis systematically defines Holistic Environmental and Energy Management and specifies the Scenario Modelling Technique which in turn uses an ideal performance benchmark. The holistic technique uses quantified expressions of building performance and by doing so enables the profiled Energy Manager to visualise his actions and the downstream consequences of his actions in the context of overall building operation. The Ideal Building Framework facilitates the use of this technique by acting as a Building Life Cycle (BLC) data repository through which ideal building performance benchmarks are systematically structured and stored in parallel with actual performance data. The Ideal Building Framework utilises transformed data in the form of the Ideal Set of Performance Objectives and Metrics which are capable of defining the performance of any building at any stage of the BLC. It is proposed that the union of Scenario Models for an individual building would result in a building specific Combination of Performance Metrics which would in turn be stored in the BLC data repository. The Ideal Data Set underpins the Ideal Set of Performance Objectives and Metrics and is the set of measurements required to monitor the performance of the Ideal Building. A Model View describes the unique building specific data relevant to a particular project stakeholder. The energy management data and information exchange requirements that underlie a Model View implementation are detailed and incorporate traditional and proposed energy management. This thesis also specifies the Model View Methodology which complements the Ideal Building Framework. The developed Model View and Rule Set methodology process utilises stakeholder specific rule sets to define stakeholder pertinent environmental and energy performance data. This generic process further enables each stakeholder to define the resolution of data desired. For example, basic, intermediate or detailed. The Model View methodology is applicable for all project stakeholders, each requiring its own customised rule set. Two rule sets are defined in detail, the Energy Manager rule set and the LEED Accreditor rule set. This particular measurement generation process accompanied by defined View would filter and expedite data access for all stakeholders involved in building performance. Information presentation is critical for effective use of the data provided by the Ideal Building Framework and the Energy Management View definition. The specifications for a customised Information Delivery Tool account for the established profile of Energy Managers and best practice user interface design. Components of the developed tool could also be used by Facility Managers working at the tactical and strategic levels of organisations. Informed decision making is made possible through specified decision assistance processes which incorporate the Scenario Modelling and Benchmarking techniques, the Ideal Building Framework, the Energy Manager Model View, the Information Delivery Tool and the established profile of Energy Managers. The Model View and Rule Set Methodology is effectively demonstrated on an appropriate mixed use existing ‘green’ building, the Environmental Research Institute at University College Cork, using the Energy Management and LEED rule sets. Informed Decision Making is also demonstrated using a prototype scenario for the demonstration building.