Optimizing the quality of bootstrap-based prediction intervals

The bootstrap method is one of the most widely used methods in literature for construction of confidence and prediction intervals. This paper proposes a new method for improving the quality of bootstrap-based prediction intervals. The core of the proposed method is a prediction interval-based cost function, which is used for training neural networks. A simulated annealing method is applied for minimization of the cost function and neural network parameter adjustment. The developed neural networks are then used for estimation of the target variance. Through experiments and simulations it is shown that the proposed method can be used to construct better quality bootstrap-based prediction intervals. The optimized prediction intervals have narrower widths with a greater coverage probability compared to traditional bootstrap-based prediction intervals.

Morphometric vertebral fractures of the lower thoracic and lumbar spine, physical function and quality of life in men

The epidemiology and sequelae of morphometric vertebral fracture (MVF) are poorly documented. We found that MVFs of the lower thoracic and lumbar spine were associated with poor quality of life and impaired physical function in men. We recommend that morphometric X-ray absorptiometry be included in routine requests for bone densitometry.

Changes in body mass index and health related quality of life from childhood to adolescence

Objective . To determine longitudinal relationships between body mass index (BMI) and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in an adolescent population sample.
Design. Data collected in 2000 and 2005 within the Health of Young Victorians longitudinal cohort study.
Setting. Originally a community sample of elementary school students in Victoria, Australia. Follow-up occurred in either secondary schools or individuals homes.
Participants. Cohort recruited in 1997 via a random sampling design from Victorian elementary schools. Originally comprising 1 943 children, 1 569 (80.8%) participated in 2000 (wave 2, 8 – 13 years) and 851 (54%) in 2005 (wave 3, 13 – 19 years).
Main outcome measures. In both waves participants and their parents completed the PedsQL, a 23-item child HRQoL measure, and BMI z-scores and status (non-overweight, overweight or obese) were calculated from measured height and weight. Associations were tested cross-sectionally and longitudinally (linear regression, adjusted for baseline values)
Results. A total of 81.6% remained in the same BMI category, while 11.4% and 7.0% moved to higher and lower categories, respectively. Cross-sectional inverse associations between lower PedsQL and higher BMI categories were similar to those for elementary school children. Wave 2 BMI strongly predicted wave 3 BMI and wave 2 PedsQL strongly predicted wave 3 PedsQL. Only parent-reported Total PedsQL score predicted higher subsequent BMI, though this effect was small. Wave 2 BMI did not predict wave 3 PedsQL.
Conclusions. This novel study confi rmed previous cross-sectional associations, but did not provide convincing evidence that
BMI is causally associated with falling HRQoL or vice versa across the transition from childhood to adolescence.

A study of older Australians’ volunteering and quality of life : empirical evidence and policy implications

Older Australians are confronted by dramatic changes in their physical, social, financial, and psychological well-being. There are social costs to these changes related to their productivity and increased costs associated with caring for older Australians. Greater community engagement through voluntary work practice may minimize these costs, as well as positively influence volunteers' subjective quality of life (QOL). This study investigates the motivations for older Australians to engage in formal voluntary work. It seeks to identify whether the motivational factors to volunteer are associated with individuals' subjective QOL. The results indicate a positive relationship between older people's motivations to volunteer and their subjective QOL. This association is strengthened by respondents' community orientation, positive perception of voluntary work, positive personal attitudes toward volunteering, and their self-esteem. The role of policy makers in motivating larger participation by the older groups is discussed.

A bi-directional relationship between obesity and health-related quality of life : evidence from the longitudinal AusDiab study

Objective: To assess the prospective relationship between obesity and health-related quality of life, including a novel assessment of the impact of health-related quality of life on weight gain.

Design and setting: Longitudinal, national, population-based Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study, with surveys conducted in 1999/2000 and 2004/2005.

Participants: A total of 5985 men and women aged 25 years at study entry.

Main outcome measure(s): At both time points, height, weight and waist circumference were measured and self-report data on health-related quality of life from the SF-36 questionnaire were obtained. Cross-sectional and bi-directional, prospective associations between obesity categories and health-related quality of life were assessed.

Results: Higher body mass index (BMI) at baseline was associated with deterioration in health-related quality of life over 5 years for seven of the eight health-related quality of life domains in women (all P0.01, with the exception of mental health, P>0.05), and six out of eight in men (all P<0.05, with the exception of role-emotional, P=0.055, and mental health, P>0.05). Each of the quality-of-life domains related to mental health as well as the mental component summary were inversely associated with BMI change (all P<0.0001 for women and P0.01 for men), with the exception of vitality, which was significant in women only (P=0.008). For the physical domains, change in BMI was inversely associated with baseline general health in women only (P=0.023).

Conclusions: Obesity was associated with a deterioration in health-related quality of life (including both physical and mental health domains) in this cohort of Australian adults followed over 5 years. Health-related quality of life was also a predictor of weight gain over 5 years, indicating a bi-directional association between obesity and health-related quality of life. The identification of those with poor health-related quality of life may be important in assessing the risk of future weight gain, and a focus on health-related quality of life may be beneficial in weight management strategies.

Utility-based quality of life associated with overweight and obesity : the Australian diabetes, obesity, and lifestyle study

This study aimed to estimate utility-based quality of life (UQoL) differences between healthy body weight and excess body weight categories. Cross-sectional analysis of 10,959 adults, participating in baseline data collection of the nationally representative Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle (AusDiab) Study was undertaken. Height and weight were measured by trained personnel. Body weight categories were assigned as healthy weight, overweight, and obesity subclasses I, II and III. UQoL was assessed using the SF-6D, which captures physical functioning, role limitation, social functioning, pain, mental health, and vitality on a score of 0.00–1.00 (worst-best). The relationship between body weight categories and UQoL was assessed using linear regression, adjusting for age, sex, education, and smoking. Relative to the healthy weight group (mean UQoL score 0.77), mean adjusted UQoL differences (95% confidence intervals) were 0.001 (−0.008, 0.010) for overweight, −0.012 (−0.022, −0.001) for class-I obese, −0.020 (−0.041, 0.001) for class-II obese, and −0.069 (−0.099, −0.039) for class-III obese groups. Adding metabolic syndrome markers to the covariates had little impact on these differences. Results confirmed an inverse dose–response relationship between body weight and UQoL in this study of Australian adults. This highlights the need to incorporate UQoL measures which are sensitive to the subclasses of obesity when evaluating obesity interventions.

Mothers adjust offspring sex to match the quality of the rearing environment

Theory predicts that mothers should adjust offspring sex ratios when the expected fitness gains or rearing costs differ between sons and daughters. Recent empirical work has linked biased offspring sex ratios to environmental quality via changes in relative maternal condition. It is unclear, however, whether females can manipulate offspring sex ratios in response to environmental quality alone (i.e. independent of maternal condition). We used a balanced within-female experimental design (i.e. females bred on both low- and high-quality diets) to show that female parrot finches (Erythrura trichroa) manipulate primary offspring sex ratios to the quality of the rearing environment, and not to their own body condition and health. Individual females produced an unbiased sex ratio on high-quality diets, but over-produced sons in poor dietary conditions, even though they maintained similar condition between diet treatments. Despite the lack of sexual size dimorphism, such sex ratio adjustment is in line with predictions from sex allocation theory because nutritionally stressed foster sons were healthier, grew faster and were more likely to survive than daughters. These findings suggest that mothers may adaptively adjust offspring sex ratios to optimally match their offspring to the expected quality of the rearing environment.