Statistical methods for ordered categorical data based on a constrained odds model

The proportional odds model provides a powerful tool for analysing ordered categorical data and setting sample size, although for many clinical trials its validity is questionable. The purpose of this paper is to present a new class of constrained odds models which includes the proportional odds model. The efficient score and Fisher's information are derived from the profile likelihood for the constrained odds model. These results are new even for the special case of proportional odds where the resulting statistics define the Mann-Whitney test. A strategy is described involving selecting one of these models in advance, requiring assumptions as strong as those underlying proportional odds, but allowing a choice of such models. The accuracy of the new procedure and its power are evaluated.

On the question of proportionality of the count of observed Scrapie cases and the size of holding

Background: The present paper investigates the question of a suitable basic model for the number of scrapie cases in a holding and applications of this knowledge to the estimation of scrapie-ffected holding population sizes and adequacy of control measures within holding. Is the number of scrapie cases proportional to the size of the holding in which case it should be incorporated into the parameter of the error distribution for the scrapie counts? Or, is there a different - potentially more complex - relationship between case count and holding size in which case the information about the size of the holding should be better incorporated as a covariate in the modeling? Methods: We show that this question can be appropriately addressed via a simple zero-truncated Poisson model in which the hypothesis of proportionality enters as a special offset-model. Model comparisons can be achieved by means of likelihood ratio testing. The procedure is illustrated by means of surveillance data on classical scrapie in Great Britain. Furthermore, the model with the best fit is used to estimate the size of the scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain by means of two capture-recapture estimators: the Poisson estimator and the generalized Zelterman estimator. Results: No evidence could be found for the hypothesis of proportionality. In fact, there is some evidence that this relationship follows a curved line which increases for small holdings up to a maximum after which it declines again. Furthermore, it is pointed out how crucial the correct model choice is when applied to capture-recapture estimation on the basis of zero-truncated Poisson models as well as on the basis of the generalized Zelterman estimator. Estimators based on the proportionality model return very different and unreasonable estimates for the population sizes. Conclusion: Our results stress the importance of an adequate modelling approach to the association between holding size and the number of cases of classical scrapie within holding. Reporting artefacts and speculative biological effects are hypothesized as the underlying causes of the observed curved relationship. The lack of adjustment for these artefacts might well render ineffective the current strategies for the control of the disease.

Timing and the holding periods of institutional real estate

Literature on investors' holding periods for securities suggests that high transaction costs are associated with longer holding periods. Return volatility, by contrast, is associated with shorter holding periods. In real estate, high transaction costs and illiquidity imply longer holding periods. Research on depreciation and obsolescence suggests that there might be an optimal holding period. Sales rates and holding periods for U.K. institutional real estate are analyzed, using a proportional hazards model, over an 18-year period. The results show longer holding periods than those claimed by investors, with marked differences by type of property and over time. The results shed light on investor behavior.

Intraclonal variability in Daphnia acetylcholinesterase activity: The implications for its applicability as a biomarker

The relationship between individual growth and acetylcholinesterase (AChE).activity was evaluated for Daphnia magna. Analysis on the influence of two different culture media on baseline AChE activity was performed with Daphnia similis. The results indicated an inverse relationship between D. magna body length and AChE activity. An increase in total protein, which was not proportional to an increase in the rate of the substrate hydrolysis (Delta absorbance/min), seems to be the reason for this inverse size versus AChE activity relationship. Therefore, toxicants such as phenobarbital, which affect protein and size but not AChE activity directly, have an overall affect on AChE activity. In contrast, the AChE inhibitor parathion altered AChE activity but not protein. Culture medium also had a significant affect on AChE activity in D. similis. Changes in total protein seem to be the main reason for the variations in baseline AChE activity in Daphnia observed in the different evaluations performed in this work. Therefore, AChE activity in Daphnia must be interpreted carefully, and variations related to changes in total protein must be taken into account when applying this enzyme as a biomarker in biological monitoring.

Design and analysis of climate model experiments for the efficient estimation of anthropogenic signals

Presented herein is an experimental design that allows the effects of several radiative forcing factors on climate to be estimated as precisely as possible from a limited suite of atmosphere-only general circulation model (GCM) integrations. The forcings include the combined effect of observed changes in sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, stratospheric (volcanic) aerosols, and solar output, plus the individual effects of several anthropogenic forcings. A single linear statistical model is used to estimate the forcing effects, each of which is represented by its global mean radiative forcing. The strong colinearity in time between the various anthropogenic forcings provides a technical problem that is overcome through the design of the experiment. This design uses every combination of anthropogenic forcing rather than having a few highly replicated ensembles, which is more commonly used in climate studies. Not only is this design highly efficient for a given number of integrations, but it also allows the estimation of (nonadditive) interactions between pairs of anthropogenic forcings. The simulated land surface air temperature changes since 1871 have been analyzed. The changes in natural and oceanic forcing, which itself contains some forcing from anthropogenic and natural influences, have the most influence. For the global mean, increasing greenhouse gases and the indirect aerosol effect had the largest anthropogenic effects. It was also found that an interaction between these two anthropogenic effects in the atmosphere-only GCM exists. This interaction is similar in magnitude to the individual effects of changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone concentrations or to the direct (sulfate) aerosol effect. Various diagnostics are used to evaluate the fit of the statistical model. For the global mean, this shows that the land temperature response is proportional to the global mean radiative forcing, reinforcing the use of radiative forcing as a measure of climate change. The diagnostic tests also show that the linear model was suitable for analyses of land surface air temperature at each GCM grid point. Therefore, the linear model provides precise estimates of the space time signals for all forcing factors under consideration. For simulated 50-hPa temperatures, results show that tropospheric ozone increases have contributed to stratospheric cooling over the twentieth century almost as much as changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases.

Simulating the formation of secondary organic aerosol from the photooxidation of aromatic hydrocarbons

The formation and composition of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from the photooxidation of benzene, p-xylene, and 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene has been simulated using the Master Chemical Mechanism version 3.1 (MCM v3.1) coupled to a representation of the transfer of organic material from the gas to particle phase. The combined mechanism was tested against data obtained from a series of experiments conducted at the European Photoreactor (EUPHORE) outdoor smog chamber in Valencia, Spain. Simulated aerosol mass concentrations compared reasonably well with the measured SOA data only after absorptive partitioning coefficients were increased by a factor of between 5 and 30. The requirement of such scaling was interpreted in terms of the occurrence of unaccounted-for association reactions in the condensed organic phase leading to the production of relatively more nonvolatile species. Comparisons were made between the relative aerosol forming efficiencies of benzene, toluene, p-xylene, and 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene, and differences in the OH-initiated degradation mechanisms of these aromatic hydrocarbons. A strong, nonlinear relationship was observed between measured (reference) yields of SOA and (proportional) yields of unsaturated dicarbonyl aldehyde species resulting from ring-fragmenting pathways. This observation, and the results of the simulations, is strongly suggestive of the involvement of reactive aldehyde species in association reactions occurring in the aerosol phase, thus promoting SOA formation and growth. The effect of NO, concentrations on SOA formation efficiencies (and formation mechanisms) is discussed.

Quartz crystal microbalance monitoring of density changes in mesoporous TiO2 phytate films during redox and ion exchange processes

Nanofilm deposits of TiO2 nanoparticle phytates are formed on gold electrode surfaces by 'directed assembly' methods. Alternate exposure of a 3-mercapto-propionic acid modified gold surface to (i) a TiO2 sol and (ii) an aqueous phytic acid solution (pH 3) results in layer-by-layer formation of a mesoporous film. Ru(NH3)(6)(3+) is shown to strongly adsorb/accumulate into the mesoporous structure whilst remaining electrochemically active. Scanning the electrode potential into a sufficiently negative potential range allows the Ru(NH3)(6)(3+) complex to be reduced to Ru(NH3)(6)(2+) which undergoes immediate desorption. When applied to a gold coated quartz crystal microbalance (QCM) sensor, electrochemically driven adsorption and desorption processes in the mesoporous structure become directly detectable as a frequency response, which corresponds directly to a mass or density change in the membrane. The frequency response (at least for thin films) is proportional to the thickness of the mass-responsive film, which suggests good mechanical coupling between electrode and film. Based on this observation, a method for the amplified QCM detection of small mass/density changes is proposed by conducting measurements in rigid mesoporous structures. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Dihydrogen in cation-substituted zeolites X - an inelastic neutron scattering study

An inelastic neutron scattering (INS) study of the rotational - vibrational spectrum of dihydrogen sorbed by zeolite X having substituted sodium, calcium and zinc cations is reported. The rotational - vibrational spectrum of H-2 was observed at low energy transfer ( below ca. 25 meV, 202 cm(-1)); the vibration was that of the H-2 molecule against the binding site (H-2 - X, not H - H). The vibration frequency was proportional to the polarising power of the cation (Na+ < Ca2+ < Zn2+). Polarisation of the H-2 molecule dominated the interaction of H-2 with this binding site. The total scattering intensity was proportional to the dihydrogen dose. However the vibrational intensities became constant at ca. 0.3 wt% showing that the H-2 binding sites had saturated. Additional dihydrogen appeared as unbound or weakly bound dihydrogen exhibiting recoil.

Influence of environmental stress on distributions of times to first division in Escherichia coli populations, as determined by digital-image analysis of individual cells

The distributions of times to first cell division were determined for populations of Escherichia coli stationary-phase cells inoculated onto agar media. This was accomplished by using automated analysis of digital images of individual cells growing on agar and calculation of the "box area ratio." Using approximately 300 cells per experiment, the mean time to first division and standard deviation for cells grown in liquid medium at 37 degrees C and inoculated on agar and incubated at 20 degrees C were determined as 3.0 h and 0.7 h, respectively. Distributions were observed to tail toward the higher values, but no definitive model distribution was identified. Both preinoculation stress by heating cultures at 50 degrees C and postinoculation stress by growth in the presence of higher concentrations of NaCl increased mean times to first division. Both stresses also resulted in an increase in the spread of the distributions that was proportional to the mean division time, the coefficient of variation being constant at approximately 0.2 in all cases. The "relative division time," which is the time to first division for individual cells expressed in terms of the cell size doubling time, was used as measure of the "work to be done" to prepare for cell division. Relative division times were greater for heat-stressed cells than for those growing under osmotic stress.