Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Exact evaluation of Gaussian path integrals involving non-local potentials

An exact expression for the calculation of gaussian path integrals involving non-local potentials is given. Its utility is demonstrated by using it to evaluate a path integral arising in the study of an electron gas in a random potential.

Identification and characterization of non-pathogenic Fusarium oxysporum capable of increasing and decreasing Fusarium wilt severity

Fusarium wilt of banana is a potentially devastating disease throughout the world. Options for control of the causal organism, Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. cubense (Foc) are limited. Suppressive soil sites have previously been identified where, despite the presence of Foc, Fusarium wilt does not develop. In order to understand some aspects of this disease suppression, endophytic Fusarium oxysporum isolates were obtained from banana roots. These isolates were genetically characterized and compared with an isolate of Fusarium oxysporum previously identified as being capable of suppressing Fusarium wilt of banana in glasshouse trials. Three additional isolates were selected for glasshouse trials to assess suppression of Fusarium wilt in two different cultivars of banana, Cavendish and Lady Finger. One isolate (BRIP 29089) was identified as a potential biocontrol organism, reducing the disease severity of Fusarium wilt in Lady Finger and Cavendish cultivars. Interestingly, one isolate (BRIP 45952) increased Fusarium wilt disease severity on Cavendish. The implications of an isolate of Fusarium oxysporum, non-pathogenic on banana, increasing disease severity and the potential role of non-pathogenic isolates of Fusarium oxysporum in disease complexes are discussed.

Multidisciplinary review of teaching and assessing competency attainment by non-medical prescribers

Background Prescribing is a complex task, requiring specific knowledge and skills, and the execution of effective, context-specific clinical reasoning. Systematic reviews indicate medical prescribing errors have a median rate of 7% [IQR 2%-14%] of medication orders [1-3]. For podiatrists pursuing prescribing rights, a clear need exists to ensure practitioners develop a well-defined set of prescribing skills, which will contribute to competent, safe and appropriate practice. Aim To investigate the methods employed to teach and assess the principles of effective prescribing in the undergraduate podiatry program and compare and contrast these findings with four other non-medical professions who undertake prescribing after training at Queensland University of Technology. Method The NPS National Prescribing Competency Standards were employed as the prescribing standard. A curriculum mapping exercise was undertaken to determine whether the prescribing principles articulated in the competency standards were addressed by each profession. Results A range of methods are currently utilised to teach prescribing across disciplines. Application of prescribing competencies to the context of each profession appears to influence the teaching methods used. Most competencies were taught using a multimodal format, including interactive lectures, self-directed learning, tutorial sessions and clinical placement. In particular clinical training was identified as the most consistent form of educating safe prescribers across all five disciplines. Assessment of prescribing competency utilised multiple techniques including written and oral examinations and research tasks, case studies, objective structured clinical examination exercises and the assessment of clinical practice. Effective and reliable assessment of prescribing undertaken by students in diverse settings remains challenging e.g. that occurring in the clinical practice environment. Conclusion Recommendations were made to refine curricula and to promote efficient cross-discipline teaching by staff from the disciplines of podiatry, pharmacy, nurse practitioner, optometry and paramedic science. Students now experience a sophisticated level of multidisciplinary learning in the clinical setting which integrates the expertise and skills of experience prescribers combined with innovative information technology platforms (CCTV and live patient assessments). Further work is required to establish a practical, effective approach to the assessment of prescribing competence especially between the university and clinical settings.

Identification of viral and non-viral reverse transcribing elements in pineapple ( Ananas comosus ), including members of two new badnavirus species

A previously published partial sequence of pineapple bacilliform virus was shown to be from a retrotransposon (family Metaviridae) and not from a badnavirus as previously thought. Two newly discovered sequence groups isolated from pineapple were associated with bacilliform virions and were transmitted by mealybugs. Phylogenetic analyses indicated that they were members of new badnavirus species. A third caulimovirid sequence was also amplified from pineapple, but available evidence suggests that this DNA is not encapsidated, but more likely derived from an endogenous virus.

Non-target impacts of poison baiting for predator control in Australia

1. Mammalian predators are controlled by poison baiting in many parts of the world, often to alleviate their impacts on agriculture or the environment. Although predator control can have substantial benefits, the poisons used may also be potentially harmful to other wildlife. 2. Impacts on non-target species must be minimized, but can be difficult to predict or quantify. Species and individuals vary in their sensitivity to toxins and their propensity to consume poison baits, while populations vary in their resilience. Wildlife populations can accrue benefits from predator control, which outweigh the occasional deaths of non-target animals. We review recent advances in Australia, providing a framework for assessing non-target effects of poisoning operations and for developing techniques to minimize such effects. We also emphasize that weak or circumstantial evidence of non-target effects can be misleading. 3. Weak evidence that poison baiting presents a potential risk to non-target species comes from measuring the sensitivity of species to the toxin in the laboratory. More convincing evidence may be obtained by quantifying susceptibility in the field. This requires detailed information on the propensity of animals to locate and consume poison baits, as well as the likelihood of mortality if baits are consumed. Still stronger evidence may be obtained if predator baiting causes non-target mortality in the field (with toxin detected by post-mortem examination). Conclusive proof of a negative impact on populations of non-target species can be obtained only if any observed non-target mortality is followed by sustained reductions in population density. 4. Such proof is difficult to obtain and the possibility of a population-level impact cannot be reliably confirmed or dismissed without rigorous trials. In the absence of conclusive evidence, wildlife managers should adopt a precautionary approach which seeks to minimize potential risk to non-target individuals, while clarifying population-level effects through continued research.

Fusion transcript loci share many genomic features with non-fusion loci

Background Fusion transcripts are found in many tissues and have the potential to create novel functional products. Here, we investigate the genomic sequences around fusion junctions to better understand the transcriptional mechanisms mediating fusion transcription/splicing. We analyzed data from prostate (cancer) cells as previous studies have shown extensively that these cells readily undergo fusion transcription. Results We used the FusionMap program to identify high-confidence fusion transcripts from RNAseq data. The RNAseq datasets were from our (N = 8) and other (N = 14) clinical prostate tumors with adjacent non-cancer cells, and from the LNCaP prostate cancer cell line that were mock-, androgen- (DHT), and anti-androgen- (bicalutamide, enzalutamide) treated. In total, 185 fusion transcripts were identified from all RNAseq datasets. The majority (76 %) of these fusion transcripts were ‘read-through chimeras’ derived from adjacent genes in the genome. Characterization of sequences at fusion loci were carried out using a combination of the FusionMap program, custom Perl scripts, and the RNAfold program. Our computational analysis indicated that most fusion junctions (76 %) use the consensus GT-AG intron donor-acceptor splice site, and most fusion transcripts (85 %) maintained the open reading frame. We assessed whether parental genes of fusion transcripts have the potential to form complementary base pairing between parental genes which might bring them into physical proximity. Our computational analysis of sequences flanking fusion junctions at parental loci indicate that these loci have a similar propensity as non-fusion loci to hybridize. The abundance of repetitive sequences at fusion and non-fusion loci was also investigated given that SINE repeats are involved in aberrant gene transcription. We found few instances of repetitive sequences at both fusion and non-fusion junctions. Finally, RT-qPCR was performed on RNA from both clinical prostate tumors and adjacent non-cancer cells (N = 7), and LNCaP cells treated as above to validate the expression of seven fusion transcripts and their respective parental genes. We reveal that fusion transcript expression is similar to the expression of parental genes. Conclusions Fusion transcripts maintain the open reading frame, and likely use the same transcriptional machinery as non-fusion transcripts as they share many genomic features at splice/fusion junctions.