Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions

Using a sequence of nested multivariate models that are VAR-based, we discuss different layers of restrictions imposed by present-value models (PVM hereafter) on the VAR in levels for series that are subject to present-value restrictions. Our focus is novel - we are interested in the short-run restrictions entailed by PVMs (Vahid and Engle, 1993, 1997) and their implications for forecasting. Using a well-known database, kept by Robert Shiller, we implement a forecasting competition that imposes different layers of PVM restrictions. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to the unrestricted VAR. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produces forecast winners 70% of the time for the target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

An investigation of Hebbian phase sequences as assembly graphs

Hebb proposed that synapses between neurons that fire synchronously are strengthened, forming cell assemblies and phase sequences. The former, on a shorter scale, are ensembles of synchronized cells that function transiently as a closed processing system; the latter, on a larger scale, correspond to the sequential activation of cell assemblies able to represent percepts and behaviors. Nowadays, the recording of large neuronal populations allows for the detection of multiple cell assemblies. Within Hebb's theory, the next logical step is the analysis of phase sequences. Here we detected phase sequences as consecutive assembly activation patterns, and then analyzed their graph attributes in relation to behavior. We investigated action potentials recorded from the adult rat hippocampus and neocortex before, during and after novel object exploration (experimental periods). Within assembly graphs, each assembly corresponded to a node, and each edge corresponded to the temporal sequence of consecutive node activations. The sum of all assembly activations was proportional to firing rates, but the activity of individual assemblies was not. Assembly repertoire was stable across experimental periods, suggesting that novel experience does not create new assemblies in the adult rat. Assembly graph attributes, on the other hand, varied significantly across behavioral states and experimental periods, and were separable enough to correctly classify experimental periods (Naïve Bayes classifier; maximum AUROCs ranging from 0.55 to 0.99) and behavioral states (waking, slow wave sleep, and rapid eye movement sleep; maximum AUROCs ranging from 0.64 to 0.98). Our findings agree with Hebb's view that assemblies correspond to primitive building blocks of representation, nearly unchanged in the adult, while phase sequences are labile across behavioral states and change after novel experience. The results are compatible with a role for phase sequences in behavior and cognition.

Movement of Spodoptera frugiperda Adults (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Maize in Brazil

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith), is one of the most important maize pests in the Americas and particularly in South America. With the adoption of genetically modified plants expressing Bacillus thuringiensis toxins for lepidopterous pest control, there is a need for establishing strategies to delay the development of insect resistance (e.g. refuge areas). Thus, information on target insects' dispersal is essential to improve pest management techniques. The objective of this work was to evaluate the dispersal capacity of S. frugiperda adults using mark-release-recapture techniques. Insects were marked using red oil-soluble dye in the larval artificial diet. Marked adults were released twice in each growing season (dry and wet) in southeastern Brazil in 2006 and 2007. Recapture of marked insects was performed using light and pheromone traps. Males are more attracted to light traps than females and the recapture rate was higher in the dry season than in the rainy season. The most adequate model to explain the relationship between flight distance and number of recaptured insects is y = a(2)/ (1+ (2a(1.8)+ bx))((2.6)), where y is the distance and x is the number captured. The maximum recapture distances were 806 m for males and 608 m for females. Therefore, strategies for establishment of refuges should take such distances into consideration.

Trajetória profissional e rupturas epistemológicas na educação física e na atuação do professor

This dissertation is the result of concerns with the theoretical-methodological and pedagogical learning processes occurred in the practice of physical education in school, which accompany me since the initial training, when I experienced learning in a piecemeal fashion, focused on technicality and sportivization. In order to better qualify the pedagogical interventions of physical education in school, I have always been worried on applying what I received at the University, but the routine of classes was always demanding others doings. In this sense, there were many moments of epistemological ruptures occurred in my training, in which I always sought new investment in training to account for the provision of a more humanistic and grounded in real educational precepts physical education. To that end I had to reflect on the pedagogical interventions throughout my training, in order not to carry out the activities as heavy doings, but as metamorphoses of knowledge and thus generating learning for students. Thus, this dissertation fits into this context with the overall goal of discussing my professional career, considering the epistemological ruptures of Physical Education, occurred in my training and expertise. The objective is also to identify the contributions of these formations in professional activities, centered on storytelling and reflection of significant experiences in the teaching of sports and Physical Education. We highlight the paradigm shifts, leaving the gymnastic methods, through dance-physical education method, psychomotor, reaching the contemporary critical theories experienced from the culture of movement as well as its implications for professional practice. We chose a qualitative research, using the autobiographical method, using as sources or techniques, narratives, photographic recording and video samples. In the studies within the area of education, for the most part, qualitative research came to oppose the positivist view of the quantification on analysis of social phenomena. New ideas were appearing in order to present innovative perspectives to understand the real. The survey data will be presented in narrated form (descriptive), analyzed based on the theoretical framework that guides the study, especially authors who discuss school physical education, vocational training and body conception. We believe our study may be of relevance for training in Physical Education that as from pedagogical reflections in certain historical realities, envisions being able to open new perspectives for the performance of other physical education teachers

Activity, movement and secretive behavior of a threatened arboreal folivore, the thin-spined porcupine, in the Atlantic forest of southern Bahia, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

About the Use of the HdHr Algorithm Group in Integrating the Movement Equation with Nonlinear Terms

This work summarizes the HdHr group of Hermitian integration algorithms for dynamic structural analysis applications. It proposes a procedure for their use when nonlinear terms are present in the equilibrium equation. The simple pendulum problem is solved as a first example and the numerical results are discussed. Directions to be pursued in future research are also mentioned. Copyright (C) 2009 H.M. Bottura and A. C. Rigitano.

Uso de rotas na área de uso e a relação com comportamento alimentar em Callithrix jacchus

Callithrix jacchus are small primates that live in cooperative reproductive family groups. They explore their home range in search of fruits, exudates and animal prey. In this study we investigate the existence of traveling routes and its relation with the feeding habits in a group of Callithrix jacchus. The group was followed for 6 months in an area of Atlantic secondary Forest at the FLONA-ICMBio of Nísia Floresta, Rio Grande do Norte. Two observers in alternated days collected data referring to the group s location using a GPS navigation device, plotting data in 5 minute intervals, and with a position accuracy under 9 meters. All behavioral recordings were done through focal time samplings. The recording windows were 15 minutes with 1 minute intervals. The main activity was foraging, which propelled the animals to explore the environment with inconsistent intensity through the months, and correlated with the location of fruits, exudates and sleeping sites. From another standpoint, most activities were focused in the core areas that featured most sleeping sites, exudates trees and fruit trees. Insects, mostly Orthopterans, were hunted in all areas. The greater ratio of movement was registered during the last hours of sunlight, when animals returned to the sleeping sites and ate a greater number of fruits. The spatial and seasonal distribution of fruits forced the animals to travel long routes. The capacity to remember the location and navigate efficiently through feeding sources is important to save energy and time costs. Learning and familiarizing with the environment through the use of landmarks and acquisition of new information is extremely important to increase the chances of survival in a constantly changing environment

Avaliação comparativa do ritmo de piscar em crianças normais em idade pré-escolar

OBJETIVO: Estabelecer o padrão de normalidade do ritmo de piscar em crianças normais em idade pré-escolar. MÉTODOS: Avaliaram-se 200 crianças de 4 a 6 anos, saudáveis, usando tomada de imagens digitais, nos planos frontal e lateral, em estado de vigília, em posição primária do olhar, estando o objeto de observação localizado na altura da pupila. Para a tomada das imagens foi utilizada uma filmadora Sony Lithium, sendo as mesmas gravadas em fitas 8 mm, transferidas para um computador MacIntosh G4 e processadas pelo programa iMovie, estudando-se: o tempo de abertura e o tempo de fechamento palpebral, o tempo de piscar completo e o ritmo de movimentos palpebrais por minuto, durante 3 minutos. Os resultados foram avaliados por estatística descritiva e gráfico de linhas. RESULTADOS: O piscar completo foi mais freqüente que o incompleto. O ritmo do piscar completo aumenta com o aumento da idade. Para o piscar incompleto, os valores foram semelhantes em todas as idades avaliadas. O tempo de fechamento e de abertura palpebral e o tempo de piscar completo foram semelhantes em meninos e meninas. O tempo de fechamento foi mais lento que o tempo de abertura palpebral. CONCLUSÕES: O ritmo de piscar completo aumenta com a idade. Os tempos de fechamento e de abertura palpebral e o tempo de piscar completo foram semelhantes em ambos os sexos, em todas as idades estudadas, sendo o fechamento mais lento que a abertura palpebral.

Celecoxib treatment does not alter recruitment and activation of osteoclasts in the initial phase of experimental tooth movement

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Microscopic evaluation of induced tooth movement in traumatized teeth: an experimental study in rats

The clinical management of orthodontic patients with dental trauma before or during the treatment is mainly founded on clinical experience, expert opinions, and individual case reports. It is proposed in the literature that teeth sustaining mild trauma with minor damage to the periodontium (e.g. subluxation) should be followed for a period of time before being subjected to orthodontic forces. A minimum period of 3 months has been proposed. In this study, we used an animal model to investigate whether shorter observation periods could be established in case of mild trauma. The periradicular region of rat molars was examined microscopically to determine the biological events of tooth movement started 15 and 30 days after intentional subluxation using an experimental method to induce dentoalveolar trauma. Thirty adult male Wistar rats were assigned to 6 groups (n = 5): Group 1 (control no trauma/orthodontic movement); Group 2: the animals received an orthodontic device and were sacrificed after 7 days; Groups 3 and 4: dentoalveolar trauma (subluxation) was experimentally induced by the application of an axial force of 900 cN on the occlusal surface of the maxillary right first molar, and the animals were sacrificed after 22 and 37 days, respectively; and Groups 5 and 6: 15 and 30 days, respectively, after force application, an orthodontic device was installed and the rats were sacrificed 7 days later. In G5 and G6, the periodontal ligament and pulp tissue were rich in cellular elements and blood vessels, the alveolar bone was preserved, and the root surface presented only very small areas of surface resorption (cementum), maintaining the characteristics of normality. In conclusion, the microscopic alterations in the gingival and periodontal tissues in response to an experimentally induced mild dentoalveolar trauma simulating subluxation were not sufficient to contraindicate starting the orthodontic movement 15 and 30 days after trauma.

Mandibular Movement Restoration Through Bilateral Coronoidectomy by Intraoral Approach

The present study aimed at reporting a clinical and surgical case of bilateral coronoidectomy, using an intraoral approach. The patient is a 26-year-old man, who sought attendance complaining of a gradual reduction of his oral opening in the past 3 years; however, he had an aggravation in the last 2 months. After clinical examination and imaging evaluation, the diagnosis of coronoid process hyperplasia was confirmed, and the surgical treatment was proposed. Under general anesthesia, with nasotracheal intubation guided by a nasofiberendoscope, using an intraoral approach, the bilateral coronoidectomy was performed. In the immediate postoperative period, an increase of the buccal opening measured 29 mm, representing an enhancement of 11 mm, and in the 30th postoperative day, it measured 31.12 mm. During the clinical follow-up period, a reestablishment of the mandibular movements was observed. Therefore, coronoidectomy by an intraoral approach and the physiotherapy performed in the postoperative period were efficient procedures.

Effect of Flasking and Polymerization Techniques on Tooth Movement in Complete Denture Processing

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare the artificial tooth positional changes following the flasking and polymerization of complete dentures by a combination of two flasking methods and two polymerization techniques using computer graphic measurements.Materials and Methods: Four groups of waxed complete dentures (n = 10) were invested and polymerized using the following techniques: (1) adding a second investment layer of gypsum and conventional water bath polymerization (Control), (2) adding a second investment layer of gypsum and polymerization with microwave energy (Gyp-micro), (3) adding a second investment layer of silicone (Zetalabor) and conventional polymerization (Silwater), and (4) adding a second investment layer of silicone and polymerization with microwave energy (Silmicro). For each specimen, six segments of interdental distances (A to F) were measured to determine the artificial tooth positions in the waxed and polymerized stages using software program AutoCad R14. The mean values of the changes were statistically compared by univariate ANOVA with Tukey post-hoc test at 5% significance.Results: There were no significant differences among the four groups, except for segment D of the Silmicro group (-0.004 +/- 0.032 cm) in relation to the Gypwater group (0.044 +/- 0.031 cm) (p < 0.05), which presented, repectively, expansion and shrinkage after polymerization.Conclusions: Within the limitations of this study, it was concluded that although the differences were not statistically significant, the use of a silicone investment layer when flasking complete dentures resulted in the least positional changes of the artificial teeth regardless of the polymerization technique.

Influence of Different Base Thicknesses on Maxillary Complete Denture Processing: Linear and Angular Graphic Analysis on the Movement of Artificial Teeth

Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare the dental movement that occurs during the processing of maxillary complete dentures with 3 different base thicknesses, using 2 investment methods, and microwave polymerization.Methods: A sample of 42 denture models was randomly divided into 6 groups (n = 7), with base thicknesses of 1.25, 2.50, and 3.75 mm and gypsum or silicone flask investment. Points were demarcated on the distal surface of the second molars and on the back of the gypsum cast at the alveolar ridge level to allow linear and angular measurement using AutoCAD software. The data were subjected to analysis of variance with double factor, Tukey test and Fisher (post hoc).Results: Angular analysis of the varying methods and their interactions generated a statistical difference (P = 0.023) when the magnitudes of molar inclination were compared. Tooth movement was greater for thin-based prostheses, 1.25 mm (-0.234), versus thick 3.75 mm (0.2395), with antagonistic behavior. Prosthesis investment with silicone (0.053) showed greater vertical change compared with the gypsum investment (0.032). There was a difference between the point of analysis, demonstrating that the changes were not symmetric.Conclusions: All groups evaluated showed change in the position of artificial teeth after processing. The complete denture with a thin base (1.25 mm) and silicone investment showed the worst results, whereas intermediate thickness (2.50 mm) was demonstrated to be ideal for the denture base.

Histomorphometric evaluation of periodontal compression and tension sides during orthodontic tooth movement in rats

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the thickness of the periodontal ligament of rat molars during orthodontic tooth movement (OTM). METHODS: Thirty Wistar rats were divided into three groups of 10 animals each: GI, GII and GIII and the mice were euthanized at 7, 14 and 21 days, respectively. Experimental subjects were compared to their respective controls by the Mann-Whitney test. Comparison of values between compression and tension sides were performed during the same and different time periods through Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Kruskal-Wallis test and, subsequently, Tukey's test. RESULTS: Groups GI and GII showed decreased PDL size in the apical regions of the mesiobuccal root and in the cervical region of the distobuccal root. There was also an increased PDL in the cervical regions of the mesiobuccal root, apical region of the distobuccal root and middle region of both roots. CONCLUSION: The reduction and increase in PDL size were seen in the same root, which characterizes tooth inclination. The apical, middle and cervical regions were compared with one another in each time period and at three times: 7, 14 and 21 days. They were also compared in each region, confirming a tipping movement in GI and GII and a gradual decreased intensity between GI to GII, reaching normal dimension in GIII.