Urban Growth Boundaries and their impact on land prices

Investigation of the effects of Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB) on land prices are restricted by a lack of good land market data. However, undeveloped land transactions at the urban fringe of the Melbourne metropolitan area in Australia are recorded in a data set that enables exploration of the impact of its UGB. Estimation can take account of endogeneity issues, while controlling for policy anticipation effects and other potential influences on land prices. OLS and instrumental variable estimates indicate that land prices rose substantially inside the UGB after its enactment in 2003 but did not rise much outside of it.

Fingerprints of changes in annual and seasonal precipitation from CMIP5 models over land and ocean

By comparing annual and seasonal changes in precipitation over land and ocean since 1950 simulated by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) climate models in which natural and anthropogenic forcings have been included, we find that clear global-scale and regional-scale changes due to human influence are expected to have occurred over both land and ocean. These include moistening over northern high latitude land and ocean throughout all seasons and over the northern subtropical oceans during boreal winter. However we show that this signal of human influence is less distinct when considered over the relatively small area of land for which there are adequate observations to make assessments of multi-decadal scale trends. These results imply that extensive and significant changes in precipitation over the land and ocean may have already happened, even though, inadequacies in observations in some parts of the world make it difficult to identify conclusively such a human fingerprint on the global water cycle. In some regions and seasons, due to aliasing of different kinds of variability as a result of sub sampling by the sparse and changing observational coverage, observed trends appear to have been increased, underscoring the difficulties of interpreting the apparent magnitude of observed changes in precipitation.

Transfers, contracts and regulation: a new institutional economics perspective on the changing provision of social housing in Britain

Social housing policy in the UK mirrors wider processes Associated with shifts in broad welfare regimes. Social housing has moved from dominance by state housing provision to the funding of new investment through voluntary sector housing associations to what is now a greater focus on the regulation and private financing of these not-for-profit bodies. If these trends run their course, we are likely to see a range of not-for-profit bodies providing non-market housing in a highly regulated quasi-market. This paper examines these issues through the lens of new institutional economics, which it is believed can provide important insights into the fundamental contractual and regulatory relationships that are coming to dominate social housing from the perspective of the key actors in the sector (not-for-profit housing organisations, their tenants, private lenders and the regulatory state). The paper draws on evidence recently collected from a study evaluating more than 100 stock transfer organisations that inherited ex-public housing in Scotland, including 12 detailed case studies. The paper concludes that social housing stakeholders need to be aware of the risks (and their management) faced across the sector and that the state needs to have clear objectives for social housing and coherent policy instruments to achieve those ends.

Coming to grips with 'abandoned arable' land in efforts to enhance communal grazing systems in the Eastern Cape province, South Africa

The communal lands of the Eastern Cape have been regarded as both tools and problems by policy-makers. In particular, communal lands are problematised as environmentally degraded, of suboptimum productivity and constraining economic development. The Eastern Cape Communal Lands Research Project was framed within this policy discourse with the aim of introducing legume-based pasture into ‘abandoned arable lands’. Initial results from community workshops show that the institutional arrangements for these arable lands vary widely and, with them, the capacity to utilise any new technology that may have application to them. Rather than simply draw on social capital, if a participatory research approach is to enhance the agency of the participating communites, it may need to contribute to social capital building and especially to create a dialogical space in which the matters being researched can be discussed meaningfully.

Contested institutions? Traditional leaders and land access and control in communal areas of Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

The South African government has endeavoured to strengthen property rights in communal areas and develop civil society institutions for community-led development and natural resource management. However, the effectiveness of this remains unclear as the emergence and operation of civil society institutions in these areas is potentially constrained by the persistence of traditional authorities. Focusing on the former Transkei region of Eastern Cape Province, three case study communities are used examine the extent to which local institutions overlap in issues of land access and control. Within these communities, traditional leaders (chiefs and headmen) continue to exercise complete and sole authority over land allocation and use this to entrench their own positions. However, in the absence of effective state support, traditional authorities have only limited power over how land is used and in enforcing land rights, particularly over communal resources such as rangeland. This diminishes their local legitimacy and encourages some groups to contest their authority by cutting fences, ignoring collective grazing decisions and refusing to pay ‘fees’ levied on them. They are encouraged in such activities by the presence of democratically elected local civil society institutions such as ward councillors and farmers’ organisations, which have broad appeal and are increasingly responsible for much of the agrarian development that takes place, despite having no direct mandate over land. Where it occurs at all, interaction between these different institutions is generally restricted to approval being required from traditional leaders for land allocated to development projects. On this basis it is argued that a more radical approach to land reform in communal areas is required, which transfers all powers over land to elected and accountable local institutions and integrates land allocation, land management and agrarian development more effectively.

The use of land-sea warming contrast under climate change to improve impact metrics

A favoured method of assimilating information from state-of-the-art climate models into integrated assessment models of climate impacts is to use the transient climate response (TCR) of the climate models as an input, sometimes accompanied by a pattern matching approach to provide spatial information. More recent approaches to the problem use TCR with another independent piece of climate model output: the land-sea surface warming ratio (φ). In this paper we show why the use of φ in addition to TCR has such utility. Multiple linear regressions of surface temperature change onto TCR and φ in 22 climate models from the CMIP3 multi-model database show that the inclusion of φ explains a much greater fraction of the inter-model variance than using TCR alone. The improvement is particularly pronounced in North America and Eurasia in the boreal summer season, and in the Amazon all year round. The use of φ as the second metric is beneficial for three reasons: firstly it is uncorrelated with TCR in state-of-the-art climate models and can therefore be considered as an independent metric; secondly, because of its projected time-invariance, the magnitude of φ is better constrained than TCR in the immediate future; thirdly, the use of two variables is much simpler than approaches such as pattern scaling from climate models. Finally we show how using the latest estimates of φ from climate models with a mean value of 1.6—as opposed to previously reported values of 1.4—can significantly increase the mean time-integrated discounted damage projections in a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model by about 15 %. When compared to damages calculated without the inclusion of the land-sea warming ratio, this figure rises to 65 %, equivalent to almost 200 trillion dollars over 200 years.

Land-atmosphere energy exchange in Arctic tundra and boreal forest: available data and feedbacks to climate

This paper summarizes and analyses available data on the surface energy balance of Arctic tundra and boreal forest. The complex interactions between ecosystems and their surface energy balance are also examined, including climatically induced shifts in ecosystem type that might amplify or reduce the effects of potential climatic change. High latitudes are characterized by large annual changes in solar input. Albedo decreases strongly from winter, when the surface is snow-covered, to summer, especially in nonforested regions such as Arctic tundra and boreal wetlands. Evapotranspiration (QE) of high-latitude ecosystems is less than from a freely evaporating surface and decreases late in the season, when soil moisture declines, indicating stomatal control over QE, particularly in evergreen forests. Evergreen conifer forests have a canopy conductance half that of deciduous forests and consequently lower QE and higher sensible heat flux (QH). There is a broad overlap in energy partitioning between Arctic and boreal ecosystems, although Arctic ecosystems and light taiga generally have higher ground heat flux because there is less leaf and stem area to shade the ground surface, and the thermal gradient from the surface to permafrost is steeper. Permafrost creates a strong heat sink in summer that reduces surface temperature and therefore heat flux to the atmosphere. Loss of permafrost would therefore amplify climatic warming. If warming caused an increase in productivity and leaf area, or fire caused a shift from evergreen to deciduous forest, this would increase QE and reduce QH. Potential future shifts in vegetation would have varying climate feedbacks, with largest effects caused by shifts from boreal conifer to shrubland or deciduous forest (or vice versa) and from Arctic coastal to wet tundra. An increase of logging activity in the boreal forests appears to reduce QE by roughly 50% with little change in QH, while the ground heat flux is strongly enhanced.

Cooled infrared filters and dichroics for the sea and land surface temperature radiometer (SLSTR)

The Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) is a nine channel visible and infrared high precision radiometer designed to provide climate data of global sea and land surface temperatures. The SLSTR payload is destined to fly on the Ocean and Medium-Resolution Land Mission for the ESA/EU Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) Programme Sentinel-3 mission to measure the sea and land temperature and topography for near real-time environmental and atmospheric climate monitoring of the Earth. In this paper we describe the optical layout of infrared optics in the instrument, spectral thin-film multilayer design, and system channel throughput analysis for the combined interference filter and dichroic beamsplitter coatings to discriminate wavelengths at 3.74, 10.85 & 12.0 μm. The rationale for selection of thin-film materials, deposition technique, and environmental testing, inclusive of humidity, thermal cycling and ionizing radiation testing are also described.