Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Framework for a business interoperability quotient measurement model

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova da Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial (MEGI)

Desirable role in an international duopoly model with tariffs

In this paper, we study an international market model in which the home government imposes a tariff on the imported goods. The model has two stages. In the first stage, the home government chooses an import tariff to maximize a function that cares about the home firm’s profit and the total revenue. Then, the firms engage in a Cournot or in a Stackelberg competition. We compare the results obtained in the three different ways of moving on the decision make of the firms.

Exposição de pequenos animais à hiperóxia: um modelo para estudo do papel do músculo liso na hiper reactividade brônquica = Hyperoxia - a model to syudy the role of airway smooth muscle on bronchial hyperresponsiveness

Revista Portuguesa de Pneumologia. VIII(3): 223-235.

International Stackelberg model with tariffs

This paper analyses the effects of tariffs on an international economy with a monopolistic sector with two firms, located in two countries, each one producing a homogeneous good for both home consumption and export to the other identical country. We consider a game among governments and firms. First, the government imposes a tariff on imports and then we consider the two types of moving: simultaneous (Cournot-type model) and sequential (Stackelberg-type model) decisions by the firms. We also compare the results obtained in each model.

Integrated didactics: an example of a curriculum model enhancing knowledge crossing

In this paper, we introduce an innovative course in the Portuguese Context, the Master's Course in “Integrated Didactics in Mother Tongue, Maths, Natural and Social Sciences”, taking place at the Lisbon School of Education and discussing in particular the results of the evaluation made by the students who attended the Curricular Unit - Integrated Didactics (CU-ID). This course was designed for in-service teachers of the first six years of schooling and intends to improve connections between different curriculum areas. In this paper, we start to present a few general ideas about curriculum development; to discuss the concept of integration; to present the principles and objectives of the course created as well as its structure; to describe the methodology used in the evaluation process of the above mentioned CU-ID. The results allow us to state that the students recognized, as positive features of the CU-ID, the presence in all sessions of two teachers simultaneously from different scientific areas, as well as invitations issued to specialists on the subject of integration and to other teachers that already promote forms of integration in schools. As negative features, students noted a lack of integrated purpose, applying simultaneously the four scientific areas of the course, and also indicated the need to be familiar with more models of integrated education. Consequently, the suggestions for improvement derived from these negative features. The students also considered that their evaluation process was correct, due to the fact that it was focused on the design of an integrated project for one of the school years already mentioned.

Location model for CCA-treated - wood waste remediation units

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica

Prevention of electrocardiographic and histopathologic alterations in the murine model of Chagas' disease by preinoculation of an attenuated Trypanosoma cruzi strain

The effects of infection with Trypanosoma cruzi on the electrocardiographic tracings of mice were studied in 4.groups of animals: (1) normal; (2) infected with a pathogenic T. cruzi strain (TS COB); (3) immunized with 3 intraperitoneal inocula of 10(6) attenuated T. cruzi epimastigotes (TCC) and (4) immunized-infected, which sequentially received the treatments of groups 3 and 2. Infection and protection were confirmed by xenodiagnosis and histopathology. Isolated alterations such as extrasystolia, 1st degree atrioventricular block, arrhythmia and ST elevation were observed in normal as well as infected mice. However, tracings taken repeatedly on each mouse over a 293 day period revealed a set of alterations which were more frequently seen in infected (14/22) than in normal (4/27) animals (p = 0.00048). These alterations consisted of supraventricular tachycardia, sinus bradycardia and persisting, first degree AV blocks, often associated to pacemaker changes. Inoculation of attenuated T. cruzi (group 3) did not increase these alterations (2/27 mice) but significantly prevented their development after challenge with the pathogenic strain (1/19 versus 14/22 mice, p = 0.000095). Thus, preimmunization reduced not only parasitemia but also a pathogenic consequence of T. cruzi infection. This evidence is relevant for immunoprevention studies against Chagas' disease.