Integrated Risk Management for Improving Internal Traffic Control, Work-Zone Safety, and Mobility during Major Construction, TPF-5(081), 2012

Highway construction is among the most dangerous industries in the US. Internal traffic control design, along with how construction equipment and vehicles interact with the traveling public, have a significant effect on how safe a highway construction work zone can be. An integrated approach was taken to research work-zone safety issues and mobility, including input from many personnel, ranging from roadway designers to construction laborers and equipment operators. The research team analyzed crash data from Iowa work-zone incident reports and Occupational Safety and Health Administration data for the industry in conjunction with the results of personal interviews, a targeted work-zone ingress and egress survey, and a work-zone pilot project.

The Half-Life of Election Pledges : What makes MPs change their positions?

"Thou shalt not bear false witness," as we all know. Yet changing one's mind in case of respectable reasons seems to be allowed. Which is good news for politicians, but reduces the effectiveness of prospective voting, i.e. the focus on "the commitments of candidates to take actions that citizens desire to be taken" (Powell 2000: 9). This may be bad news for voters. By comparing pre-election commitments of Swiss members of parliament (MPs) with actual voting behaviour in the lower house of parliament, the following article explores the question how much confidence voters can have in prospective voting and what factors explain (non-)fulfilment of election pledges.

Ecological-economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change

Substantial investment in climate change research has led to dire predictions of the impacts and risks to biodiversity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report(1) cites 28,586 studies demonstrating significant biological changes in terrestrial systems(2). Already high extinction rates, driven primarily by habitat loss, are predicted to increase under climate change(3-6). Yet there is little specific advice or precedent in the literature to guide climate adaptation investment for conserving biodiversity within realistic economic constraints(7). Here we present a systematic ecological and economic analysis of a climate adaptation problem in one of the world's most species-rich and threatened ecosystems: the South African fynbos. We discover a counterintuitive optimal investment strategy that switches twice between options as the available adaptation budget increases. We demonstrate that optimal investment is nonlinearly dependent on available resources, making the choice of how much to invest as important as determining where to invest and what actions to take. Our study emphasizes the importance of a sound analytical framework for prioritizing adaptation investments(4). Integrating ecological predictions in an economic decision framework will help support complex choices between adaptation options under severe uncertainty. Our prioritization method can be applied at any scale to minimize species loss and to evaluate the robustness of decisions to uncertainty about key assumptions.

Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

Acquisitions thérapeutiques en médecine ambulatoire en 2011 [2011 findings from literature on general internal ambulatory medicine].

In 2011 several articles seemed significant for the practice of general medicine. Diagnosis of hypertension needs several measurements and may need 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring. Glycosylated hemoglobin is a reliable tool to diagnose diabetes mellitus. The ABCD2 score with neurological imaging help the triage of transient ischemic attacks. Pulmonary embolism can be treated as outpatient for low risk patients. Gluten-free diet may be tried in irritable bowel syndrome. Nitrofurantoin is a reasonable alternative for simple urinary tract infection in women, but antibiotics are not needed after drainage of an uncomplicated skin abscess. Subclinical thyroid dysfunction is a risk factor of osteoporosis in older men. Sequential use of MMSE and ACE scores is a promising approach to assess medical decision-making capacity.