Alive SMC^2: Bayesian model selection for low-count time series models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a new method for performing Bayesian parameter inference and model choice for low count time series models with intractable likelihoods. The method involves incorporating an alive particle filter within a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to create a novel pseudo-marginal algorithm, which we refer to as alive SMC^2. The advantages of this approach over competing approaches is that it is naturally adaptive, it does not involve between-model proposals required in reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo and does not rely on potentially rough approximations. The algorithm is demonstrated on Markov process and integer autoregressive moving average models applied to real biological datasets of hospital-acquired pathogen incidence, animal health time series and the cumulative number of poison disease cases in mule deer.

Chirp-spread-spectrum-based real time location system for construction safety management: A case study

Observing the working procedure of construction workers is an effective means of maintaining the safety performance of a construction project. It is also difficult to achieve due to a high worker-to-safety-officer ratio. There is an imminent need for the development of a tool to assist in the real-time monitoring of workers, in order to reduce the number of construction accidents. The development and application of a real time locating system (RTLS) based on the Chirp Spread Spectrum (CSS) technique is described in this paper for tracking the real-time position of workers on construction sites. Experiments and tests were carried out both on- and off-site to verify the accuracy of static and dynamic targets by the system, indicating an average error of within one metre. Experiments were also carried out to verify the ability of the system to identify workers’ unsafe behaviours. Wireless data transfer was used to simplify the deployment of the system. The system was deployed in a public residential construction project and proved to be quick and simple to use. The cost of the developed system is also reported to be reasonable (around 1800USD) in this study and is much cheaper than the cost of other RTLS. In addition, the CCS technique is shown to provide an economical solution with reasonable accuracy compared with other positioning systems, such as ultra wideband. The study verifies the potential of the CCS technique to provide an effective and economical aid in the improvement of safety management in the construction industry.