Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The results suggest that real estate forecasts are biased, less volatile compared to market returns and inefficient in that forecast errors tend to persist. The strongest finding is that real estate forecasters display the characteristics associated with a consensus indicating herding.

Measurements and modelling of airflows in houses using passive sampling and HAM software

Passive samplers have been predominantly used to monitor environmental conditions in single volumes. However, measurements using a calibrated passive sampler- Solid Phase Microextraction (SPME) fibre, in three houses with cold pitched roof, successfully demonstrated the potential of the SPME fibre as a device for monitoring air movement in two volumes. The roofs monitored were pitched at 15° - 30° with insulation thickness varying between 200-300 mm on the ceiling. For effective analysis, two constant sources of volatile organic compounds were diffused steadily in the house. Emission rates and air movement from the house to the roof was predicted using developed algorithms. The airflow rates which were calibrated against conventional tracer gas techniques were introduced into a HAM software package to predict the effects of air movement on other varying parameters. On average it was shown from the in situ measurements that about 20-30% of air entering the three houses left through gaps and cracks in the ceiling into the roof. Although these field measurements focus on the airflows, it is associated with energy benefits such that; if these flows are reduced then significantly energy losses would also be reduced (as modelled) consequently improving the energy efficiency of the house. Other results illustrated that condensation formation risks were dependent on the airtightness of the building envelopes including configurations of their roof constructions.

Expert judgement in the processes of commercial property market forecasting

In this paper we investigate the role of judgement in the formation of forecasts in commercial real estate markets. Based on interview surveys with the majority of forecast producers, we find that real estate forecasters are using a range of inputs and data sets to form models to predict an array of variables for a range of locations. The findings suggest that forecasts need to be acceptable to their users (and purchasers) and consequently forecasters generally have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. Where extreme forecasts are generated by a model, forecasters often engage in ‘self-censorship’ or are ‘censored’ following in-house consultation. It is concluded that the forecasting process is more complex than merely carrying out econometric modelling and that the impact of the influences within this process vary considerably across different organizational contexts.

Modelling niches of arbitrary shape in genetic algorithms using Niche Linkage in the Dynamic Niche Clustering framework

We present some additions to a fuzzy variable radius niche technique called Dynamic Niche Clustering (DNC) (Gan and Warwick, 1999; 2000; 2001) that enable the identification and creation of niches of arbitrary shape through a mechanism called Niche Linkage. We show that by using this mechanism it is possible to attain better feature extraction from the underlying population.

A new approach to reduced-order modelling

An error polynomial is defined, the coefficients of which indicate the difference at any instant between a system and a model of lower order approximating the system. It is shown how Markov parameters and time series proportionals of the model can be matched with those of the system by setting error polynomial coefficients to zero. Also discussed is the way in which the error between system and model can be considered as being a filtered form of an error input function specified by means of model parameter selection.

The role of closed ecological systems in carbon cycle modelling

Acquiring a mechanistic understanding of the role of the biotic feedbacks on the links between atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature is essential for trustworthy climate predictions. Currently, computer based simulations are the only available tool to estimate the global impact of the biotic feedbacks on future atmospheric CO2 and temperatures. Here we propose an alternative and complementary approaches by using materially closed and energetically open analogue/physical models of the carbon cycle. We argue that there is potential in using a materially closed approach to improve our understanding of the magnitude and sign of many biotic feedbacks, and that recent technological advance make this feasible. We also suggest how such systems could be designed and discuss the advantages and limitations of establishing physical models of the global carbon cycle.

An ocean modelling and assimilation guide to using GOCE geoid products

We review the procedures and challenges that must be considered when using geoid data derived from the Gravity and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) mission in order to constrain the circulation and water mass representation in an ocean 5 general circulation model. It covers the combination of the geoid information with timemean sea level information derived from satellite altimeter data, to construct a mean dynamic topography (MDT), and considers how this complements the time-varying sea level anomaly, also available from the satellite altimeter. We particularly consider the compatibility of these different fields in their spatial scale content, their temporal rep10 resentation, and in their error covariances. These considerations are very important when the resulting data are to be used to estimate ocean circulation and its corresponding errors. We describe the further steps needed for assimilating the resulting dynamic topography information into an ocean circulation model using three different operational fore15 casting and data assimilation systems. We look at methods used for assimilating altimeter anomaly data in the absence of a suitable geoid, and then discuss different approaches which have been tried for assimilating the additional geoid information. We review the problems that have been encountered and the lessons learned in order the help future users. Finally we present some results from the use of GRACE geoid in20 formation in the operational oceanography community and discuss the future potential gains that may be obtained from a new GOCE geoid.

A new modelling framework for statistical cumulus dynamics

We propose a new modelling framework suitable for the description of atmospheric convective systems as a collection of distinct plumes. The literature contains many examples of models for collections of plumes in which strong simplifying assumptions are made, a diagnostic dependence of convection on the large-scale environment and the limit of many plumes often being imposed from the outset. Some recent studies have sought to remove one or the other of those assumptions. The proposed framework removes both, and is explicitly time-dependent and stochastic in its basic character. The statistical dynamics of the plume collection are defined through simple probabilistic rules applied at the level of individual plumes, and van Kampen's system size expansion is then used to construct the macroscopic limit of the microscopic model. Through suitable choices of the microscopic rules, the model is shown to encompass previous studies in the appropriate limits, and to allow their natural extensions beyond those limits.

View-based modelling of human visual navigation errors

View-based and Cartesian representations provide rival accounts of visual navigation in humans, and here we explore possible models for the view-based case. A visual “homing” experiment was undertaken by human participants in immersive virtual reality. The distributions of end-point errors on the ground plane differed significantly in shape and extent depending on visual landmark configuration and relative goal location. A model based on simple visual cues captures important characteristics of these distributions. Augmenting visual features to include 3D elements such as stereo and motion parallax result in a set of models that describe the data accurately, demonstrating the effectiveness of a view-based approach.