Application of the Hidden Markov Model for Innovative Projects "Viability" Analysis

This master thesis deals with determining of innovative projects "viability". "Viability" is the probability of innovative project being implemented. Hidden Markov Models are used for evaluation of this factor. The problem of determining parameters of model, which produce given data sequence with the highest probability, are solving in this research. Data about innovative projects contained in reports of Russian programs "UMNIK", "START" and additional data obtained during study are used as input data for determining of model parameters. The Baum-Welch algorithm which is one implementation of expectation-maximization algorithm is used at this research for calculating model parameters. At the end part of the master thesis mathematical basics for practical implementation are given (in particular mathematical description of the algorithm and implementation methods for Markov models).

Search of Method for Analyzing "Viability" of Innovative Projects

Questions of "viability" evaluation of innovation projects are considered in this article. As a method of evaluation Hidden Markov Models are used. Problem of determining model parameters, which reproduce test data with highest accuracy are solving. For training the model statistical data on the implementation of innovative projects are used. Baum-Welch algorithm is used as a training algorithm.

(Tables 1,2) Viability of Poa trivialis seeds transported to Antarctica from different locations

Antarctic ecosystems are at risk from the introduction of invasive species. The first step in the process of invasion is the transportation of alien species to Antarctic in a viable state. However, the effect of long-distance human-mediated dispersal, over different time-scales, on propagule viability is not well known. We assessed the viability of Poa trivialis seeds transported to Antarctica from the UK, South Africa and Australia by ship or by ship and aircraft. Following transportation to the Antarctic Treaty area, no reduction in seed viability was found, despite journey times lasting up to 284 days and seeds experiencing temperatures as low as -1.5°C. This work confirms that human-mediated transport may overcome the dispersal barrier for some propagules, and highlights the need for effective pre-departure biosecurity measures.