Climate Change Adaptation for Conservation in Madagascar

Madagascar's imperilled biota are now experiencing the effects of a new threat—climate change (Raxworthy et al. 2008). With more than 90% endemism among plants, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, the stakes are high. The pristine landscapes that allowed this exceptional biodiversity to survive past climate changes are largely gone. Deforestation has claimed approximately 90% of the island's natural forest (Ingram & Dawson 2005; Harper et al. 2007) and what remains is highly fragmented, providing a poor template for large-scale species range shifts. The impacts of current and future climate change may therefore be much different than past impacts, with profound implications for biodiversity.
We review evidence of past response to climate change, models of future change and projected biological response, developing insights to formulate adaptation actions for reducing extinction in Madagascar's biota. We then explore the cost of implementing actions and examine new income opportunities developing through efforts to mitigate climate change.

Real-time error detection but not error correction drives automatic visuomotor adaptation

We investigated the role of visual feedback of task performance in visuomotor adaptation. Participants produced novel two degrees of freedom movements (elbow flexion-extension, forearm pronation-supination) to move a cursor towards visual targets. Following trials with no rotation, participants were exposed to a 60A degrees visuomotor rotation, before returning to the non-rotated condition. A colour cue on each trial permitted identification of the rotated/non-rotated contexts. Participants could not see their arm but received continuous and concurrent visual feedback (CF) of a cursor representing limb position or post-trial visual feedback (PF) representing the movement trajectory. Separate groups of participants who received CF were instructed that online modifications of their movements either were, or were not, permissible as a means of improving performance. Feedforward-mediated performance improvements occurred for both CF and PF groups in the rotated environment. Furthermore, for CF participants this adaptation occurred regardless of whether feedback modifications of motor commands were permissible. Upon re-exposure to the non-rotated environment participants in the CF, but not PF, groups exhibited post-training aftereffects, manifested as greater angular deviations from a straight initial trajectory, with respect to the pre-rotation trials. Accordingly, the nature of the performance improvements that occurred was dependent upon the timing of the visual feedback of task performance. Continuous visual feedback of task performance during task execution appears critical in realising automatic visuomotor adaptation through a recalibration of the visuomotor mapping that transforms visual inputs into appropriate motor commands.

Lake restoration in terms of ecological resilience: a numerical study of biomanipulations under bistable conditions

An abstract version of the comprehensive aquatic simulation model (CASM) is found to exhibit bistability under intermediate loading of nutrient input, supporting the alternative-stable-states theory and field observations for shallow lakes. Our simulations of biomanipulations under the bistable conditions reveal that a reduction in the abundance of zooplanktivorous fish cannot switch the system from a turbid to a clear state. Rather, a direct reduction of phytoplankton and detritus was found to be most effective to make this switch in the present model. These results imply that multiple manipulations may be effective for practical restorations of lakes. We discuss the present results of biomanipulations in terms of ecological resilience in multivariable systems or natural systems.

Simplification of structured population dynamics in complex ecological communities

Goldstone's idea of slow dynamics resulting from spontaneously broken symmetries is applied to Hubbell's neutral hypothesis of community dynamics, to efficiently simplify stage-structured multi-species models-introducing the quasi-neutral approximation (QNA). Rather than assuming population-dynamical neutrality in the QNA, deviations from ideal neutrality, thought to be small, drive dynamics. The QNA is systematically derived to first and second order in a two-scale singular perturbation expansion. The total reproductive value of species, as computed from the effective life-history parameters resulting from the non-linear interactions with the surrounding community, emerges as the new dynamic variables in this aggregated description. Using a simple stage-structured community-assembly model, the QNA is demonstrated to accurately reproduce population dynamics in large, complex communities. Further, the utility of the QNA in building intuition for management problems is illustrated by estimating the responses of a fish stock to harvesting and variations in fecundity.

Protracted rainfall decreases temperature within leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) clutches in Grenada, West Indies: Ecological implications for a species displaying temperature dependent sex determination

Protracted or intense rainfall may affect the reproductive success of reptilian species on a number of levels ranging from the availability of prey, the integrity of the nesting site and the subsequent survivability of offspring. For sea turtles (a species displaying temperature sex determination) nesting throughout the tropics and subtropics, rainfall has previously been shown to influence the development environment of clutches; in its extreme resulting in high levels of egg or hatchling mortality. Yet when compared to other abiotic variables affecting clutch success, rainfall has received relatively little attention. We therefore examined how fluctuations in local rainfall at a tropical nesting site for leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) affected the nest environment. Temperature data loggers placed within clutches (n = 8) revealed that protracted rainfall had a marked cooling effect on nests, so that seasonally improbable male-producing temperatures (

Indicators of the impact of climate change on migratory species

The Bonn Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals adopted a Resolution in 2005 recognising the impacts of climate change on migratory species. It called on Contracting Parties to undertake more research to improve our understanding of these impacts and to implement adaptation measures to reduce foreseeable adverse effects. Given the large diversity of taxa and species affected by climate change, it is impossible to monitor all species and effects thereof. However, it is likely that many of the key ecological and physical processes through which climate change may impact wildlife could be monitored using a suite of indicators, each comprising parameters of species/populations or groups of species as proxies for wider assemblages, habitats and ecosystems. Herein, we identify a suite of 17 indicators whose attributes could reveal negative impacts of climate change on the global status of migratory species: 4 for birds, 4 for marine mammals, 2 for sea turtles, 1 for fish, 3 for land mammals and 3 for bats. A few of these indicators would be relatively straightforward to develop, but most would require additional data collation, and in many cases methodological development. Choosing and developing indicators of the impacts of climate change on migratory species is a challenge, particularly with endangered species, which are subject to many other pressures. To identify and implement conservation measures for these species, indicators must account for the full ensemble of pressures, and link to a system of alerts and triggers for action.

The Movebank data model for animal tracking

Studies of animal movement are rapidly increasing as tracking technologies make it possible to collect more data of a larger variety of species. Comparisons of animal movement across sites, times, or species are key to asking questions about animal adaptation, responses to climate and land-use change. Thus, great gains can be made by sharing and exchanging animal tracking data. Here we present an animal movement data model that we use within the Movebank web application to describe tracked animals. The model facilitates data comparisons across a broad range of taxa, study designs, and technologies, and is based on the scientific questions that could be addressed with the data.