A computable general equilibrium analysis of the relative price sensitivity required to induce rebound effects in response to an improvement in energy efficiency in the UK economy

In recent years there has been extensive debate in the energy economics and policy literature on the likely impacts of improvements in energy efficiency. This debate has focussed on the notion of rebound effects. Rebound effects occur when improvements in energy efficiency actually stimulate the direct and indirect demand for energy in production and/or consumption. This phenomenon occurs through the impact of the increased efficiency on the effective, or implicit, price of energy. If demand is stimulated in this way, the anticipated reduction in energy use, and the consequent environmental benefits, will be partially or possibly even more than wholly (in the case of ‘backfire’ effects) offset. A recent report published by the UK House of Lords identifies rebound effects as a plausible explanation as to why recent improvements in energy efficiency in the UK have not translated to reductions in energy demand at the macroeconomic level, but calls for empirical investigation of the factors that govern the extent of such effects. Undoubtedly the single most important conclusion of recent analysis in the UK, led by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) is that the extent of rebound and backfire effects is always and everywhere an empirical issue. It is simply not possible to determine the degree of rebound and backfire from theoretical considerations alone, notwithstanding the claims of some contributors to the debate. In particular, theoretical analysis cannot rule out backfire. Nor, strictly, can theoretical considerations alone rule out the other limiting case, of zero rebound, that a narrow engineering approach would imply. In this paper we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework to investigate the conditions under which rebound effects may occur in the Scottish regional and UK national economies. Previous work has suggested that rebound effects will occur even where key elasticities of substitution in production are set close to zero. Here, we carry out a systematic sensitivity analysis, where we gradually introduce relative price sensitivity into the system, focusing in particular on elasticities of substitution in production and trade parameters, in order to determine conditions under which rebound effects become a likely outcome. We find that, while there is positive pressure for rebound effects even where (direct and indirect) demand for energy is very price inelastic, this may be partially or wholly offset by negative income and disinvestment effects, which also occur in response to falling energy prices.

The clinical application of converting enzyme inhibitors.

Chronic blockade of the renin angiotensin system became possible when orally active inhibitors of angiotensin converting enzyme, the enzyme which catalyzes the transformation of angiotensin I into angiotensin II, were synthetized. Two compounds, captopril and enalapril, have been investigated in clinical studies. The decrease of the pressor response to exogenous angiotensin I and of the circulating levels of angiotensin II following administration of these inhibitors has been demonstrated to be directly related to the degree of suppression of plasma angiotensin converting enzyme activity. These inhibitors have been shown to normalize blood pressure alone in some hypertensive patients whereas in many others, satisfactory blood pressure control can be achieved only after the addition of a diuretic. Captopril and enalapril also markedly improve cardiac function of patients with chronic congestive heart failure. Chronic blockade of the renin angiotensin system has therefore provided an interesting new approach to the treatment of clinical hypertension and heart failure.

A theoretical and practical study on linear reforms of dual taxes

We extend the linear reforms introduced by Pf¨ahler (1984) to the case of dual taxes. We study the relative effect that linear dual tax cuts have on the inequality of income distribution -a symmetrical study can be made for dual linear tax hikes-. We also introduce measures of the degree of progressivity for dual taxes and show that they can be connected to the Lorenz dominance criterion. Additionally, we study the tax liability elasticity of each of the reforms proposed. Finally, by means of a microsimulation model and a considerably large data set of taxpayers drawn from 2004 Spanish Income Tax Return population, 1) we compare different yield-equivalent tax cuts applied to the Spanish dual income tax and 2) we investigate how much income redistribution the dual tax reform (Act ‘35/2006’) introduced with respect to the previous tax.

Work Hours, Social Value of Leisure and Globalisation

We examine how openness interacts with the coordination of consumption-leisure decisions in determining the equilibrium working hours and wage rate when there are leisure externalities (e.g., due to social interactions). The latter are modelled by allowing a worker’s marginal utility of leisure to be increasing in the leisure time taken by other workers. Coordination takes the form of internalising the leisure externality and other relevant constraints (e.g., labour demand). The extent of openness is measured by the degree of capital mobility. We find that: coordination lowers equilibrium work hours and raises the wage rate; there is a U-shaped (inverse-U-shaped) relationship between work hours (wages) and the degree of coordination; coordination is welfare improving; and, the gap between the coordinated and uncoordinated work hours (and the corresponding wage rates) is affected by the extent and nature of openness.

Who Ultimately Bears the Burden of Greater Non-Wage Labour costs?

We investigate the effect of a rise in non-wage labour costs (NWLC) on real anufacturing labour costs in OECD countries, taking into account the degree of coordination in the wage bargaining process. We find that, in countries in which wage bargaining is not highly coordinated, 55% of an increase in NWLC appears to be shifted to workers in the long run, whereas in countries operating under a highly coordinated bargaining regime, full shifting occurs. Overall, our results suggest that high NWLC can be associated with a high equilibrium unemployment rate, but only in those OECD countries that do not have highly coordinated wage bargaining.

Consequences of smoking for body weight, body fat distribution, and insulin resistance

Our aim was to critically evaluate the relations among smoking, body weight, body fat distribution, and insulin resistance as reported in the literature. In the short term, nicotine increases energy expenditure and could reduce appetite, which may explain why smokers tend to have lower body weight than do nonsmokers and why smoking cessation is frequently followed by weight gain. In contrast, heavy smokers tend to have greater body weight than do light smokers or nonsmokers, which likely reflects a clustering of risky behaviors (eg, low degree of physical activity, poor diet, and smoking) that is conducive to weight gain. Other factors, such as weight cycling, could also be involved. In addition, smoking increases insulin resistance and is associated with central fat accumulation. As a result, smoking increases the risk of metabolic syndrome and diabetes, and these factors increase risk of cardiovascular disease. In the context of the worldwide obesity epidemic and a high prevalence of smoking, the greater risk of (central) obesity and insulin resistance among smokers is a matter of major concern

A New Model Of Trend Inflation

This paper introduces a new model of trend (or underlying) inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. The bounds placed on trend inflation mean that standard econometric methods for estimating linear Gaussian state space models cannot be used and we develop a posterior simulation algorithm for estimating the bounded trend inflation model. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model.

Influence of Trypanosoma cruzi strain on the pathogenesis of chronic myocardiopathy in mice

The murine model of chronic Chaga's myocardiopathy was developed in 201 inbred and outbred mice. The experimental groups consisted of 1st: 73 inbred AKR and A/J mice inoculated with one of the following. Trypanosoma cruzi strains: Peruvian (Type I), 12 SF (Type II) or Colombian (Type III); 2nd: 128 outbred Swiss mice, chronically infected either with Type II or Type III strains isolated from human patients from different geographical areas. All T. cruzi strains were previoulsly characterized by their morphobiological behaviour in mice and by isoenzymatic patterns. For the 1st group the inoculum was 5 x 10**4 for the Peruvian strain and 1 x 10**5 for the 12 SF and Colombian strains. In the 2nd group-Swiss mice the inoculum size varied from 2 x 10**4 to 2 x 10**5. The inbred animals were killed at a 3 time-point scale (90, 180 and 240 days) post-infection. The Swiss mice were killed from 180 to 660 days after infection. The evaluation of parasitemia and serology (xeodiagnosis and indirect immunofluorescent test) was performed. The incidence of macroscopic alterations of the heart and cardiac index were evaluated. Histopathological lesions of the myocardium were graded. The influence of T. cruzi strain on the intensity of cardiac lesions was evaluated by the Chi-square test; the incidence of inflammatory lesions and its relationship to the parasite strain was evaluated by the Fisher test. The influence of the duration of infection was evaluated by using the Gamma Coefficient of Kruskal and Goodman and its measure of significance. Slight to severe microscopic alterations occurred in 85% of the chronically infected nice. There were a clear predominance on the incidence and intensity of inflammatory and fibrotic alterations for the mice infected with Type III strains. Statistical analysis has shown significant differences among the infected groups, in the inflammatory and fibrotic lesions. Macroscopic alterations (right cavities dilatation and apex aneurism of left ventricle), differed in incidence according to mice strains; in Swiss and AKR mice, significant differences were seen in mice infected with different T. cruzi strains, but the A/J mice failed to show significant differences correlated with different parasite strains. The duration of infection, from 90 to 240 days, could not be correlated with the degree of lesions in the several groups.

The Technological Specialization of Countries: An Analysis of Patent Data

New methods of analysis of patent statistics allow assessing country profiles of technological specialization for the period 1990-2006. We witness a modest decrease in levels of specialization, which we show to be negatively influenced by country size and degree of internationalization of inventive activities.