Are property prices non-linear? An investigation of the behaviour of US REITs and UK property company shares

Linear models of market performance may be misspecified if the market is subdivided into distinct regimes exhibiting different behaviour. Price movements in the US Real Estate Investment Trusts and UK Property Companies Markets are explored using a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model with regimes defined by the real rate of interest. In both US and UK markets, distinctive behaviour emerges, with the TAR model offering better predictive power than a more conventional linear autoregressive model. The research points to the possibility of developing trading rules to exploit the systematically different behaviour across regimes.

Synthesis and phase behaviour of a homologous series of polymethacrylate-based side-chain liquid crystal polymers

The homologous series of side chain liquid crystal polymers, the poly[x-(4-methoxyazobenzene- 40-oxy)alkyl methacrylate]s, has been prepared in which the length of the flexible alkyl spacer has been varied from 3 to 11 methylene units. All the polymers exhibit liquid crystalline behaviour. The propyl and butyl members show exclusively nematic behaviour. The pentyl, hexyl, octyl and decyl members show a nematic and a smectic A phase while the heptyl, nonyl and undecyl homologues exhibit only a smectic A phase. The smectic A phase has been studied using X-ray diffraction and assigned as a smectic A1 phase in which the side chains are fully overlapped and the backbones are confined to lie between the smectic layers. For the nonyl member an incommensurate smectic phase is observed. The dependence of the transition temperatures on the length of the flexible spacer is understood in terms of the average shapes of the side chains.

Formal theory building for the avalanche game: explaining counter-intuitive behaviour of a complex system using geometrical and human behavioural/physiological effects

In 'Avalanche', an object is lowered, players staying in contact throughout. Normally the task is easily accomplished. However, with larger groups counter-intuitive behaviours appear. The paper proposes a formal theory for the underlying causal mechanisms. The aim is to not only provide an explicit, testable hypothesis for the source of the observed modes of behaviour-but also to exemplify the contribution that formal theory building can make to understanding complex social phenomena. Mapping reveals the importance of geometry to the Avalanche game; each player has a pair of balancing loops, one involved in lowering the object, the other ensuring contact. For more players, sets of balancing loops interact and these can allow dominance by reinforcing loops, causing the system to chase upwards towards an ever-increasing goal. However, a series of other effects concerning human physiology and behaviour (HPB) is posited as playing a role. The hypothesis is therefore rigorously tested using simulation. For simplicity a 'One Degree of Freedom' case is examined, allowing all of the effects to be included whilst rendering the analysis more transparent. Formulation and experimentation with the model gives insight into the behaviours. Multi-dimensional rate/level analysis indicates that there is only a narrow region in which the system is able to move downwards. Model runs reproduce the single 'desired' mode of behaviour and all three of the observed 'problematic' ones. Sensitivity analysis gives further insight into the system's modes and their causes. Behaviour is seen to arise only when the geometric effects apply (number of players greater than degrees of freedom of object) in combination with a range of HPB effects. An analogy exists between the co-operative behaviour required here and various examples: conflicting strategic objectives in organizations; Prisoners' Dilemma and integrated bargaining situations. Additionally, the game may be relatable in more direct algebraic terms to situations involving companies in which the resulting behaviours are mediated by market regulations. Finally, comment is offered on the inadequacy of some forms of theory building and the case is made for formal theory building involving the use of models, analysis and plausible explanations to create deep understanding of social phenomena.

Understanding the spatial mass transfer behaviour of a pulsating jet HMV system: vortex generation and characterisation

The flow patterns generated by a pulsating jet used to study hydrodynamic modulated voltammetry (HMV) are investigated. It is shown that the pronounced edge effect reported previously is the result of the generation of a vortex ring from the pulsating jet. This vortex behaviour of the pulsating jet system is imaged using a number of visualisation techniques. These include a dye system and an electrochemically generated bubble stream. In each case a toroidal vortex ring was observed. Image analysis revealed that the velocity of this motion was of the order of 250 mm s−1 with a corresponding Reynolds number of the order of 1200. This motion, in conjunction with the electrode structure, is used to explain the strong ‘ring and halo’ features detected by electrochemical mapping of the system reported previously.

Late-Holocene changes in character and behaviour of land-terminating glaciers on James Ross Island, Antarctica

Virtually no information is available on the response of land-terminating Antarctic Peninsula glaciers to climate change on a centennial timescale. This paper analyses the topography, geomorphology and sedimentology of prominent moraines on James Ross Island, Antarctica, to determine geometric changes and to interpret glacier behaviour. The moraines are very likely due to a late-Holocene phase of advance and featured (1) shearing and thrusting within the snout, (2) shearing and deformation of basal sediment, (3) more supraglacial debris than at present and (4) short distances of sediment transport. Retreat of ∼100 m and thinning of 15–20 m has produced a loss of 0.1 km3 of ice. The pattern of surface lowering is asymmetric. These geometrical changes are suggested most simply to be due to a net negative mass balance caused by a drier climate. Comparisons of the moraines with the current glaciological surface structure of the glaciers permits speculation of a transition from a polythermal to a cold-based thermal regime. Small land-terminating glaciers in the northern Antarctic Peninsula region could be cooling despite a warming climate.

A DFT study of the structures, stabilities and redox behaviour of the major surfaces of magnetite Fe3O4

The renewed interest in magnetite (Fe3O4) as a major phase in different types of catalysts has led us to study the oxidation–reduction behaviour of its most prominent surfaces. We have employed computer modelling techniques based on the density functional theory to calculate the geometries and surface free energies of a number of surfaces at different compositions, including the stoichiometric plane, and those with a deficiency or excess of oxygen atoms. The most stable surfaces are the (001) and (111), leading to a cubic Fe3O4 crystal morphology with truncated corners under equilibrium conditions. The scanning tunnelling microscopy images of the different terminations of the (001) and (111) stoichiometric surfaces were calculated and compared with previous reports. Under reducing conditions, the creation of oxygen vacancies in the surface leads to the formation of reduced Fe species in the surface in the vicinity of the vacant oxygen. The (001) surface is slightly more prone to reduction than the (111), due to the higher stabilisation upon relaxation of the atoms around the oxygen vacancy, but molecular oxygen adsorbs preferentially at the (111) surface. In both oxidized surfaces, the oxygen atoms are located on bridge positions between two surface iron atoms, from which they attract electron density. The oxidised state is thermodynamically favourable with respect to the stoichiometric surfaces under ambient conditions, although not under the conditions when bulk Fe3O4 is thermodynamically stable with respect to Fe2O3. This finding is important in the interpretation of the catalytic properties of Fe3O4 due to the presence of oxidised species under experimental conditions.

Determinants of biosecurity behaviour of British cattle and sheep farmers: a behavioural economics analysis

The paper analyses the impact of a priori determinants of biosecurity behaviour of farmers in Great Britain. We use a dataset collected through a stratified telephone survey of 900 cattle and sheep farmers in Great Britain (400 in England and a further 250 in Wales and Scotland respectively) which took place between 25 March 2010 and 18 June 2010. The survey was stratified by farm type, farm size and region. To test the influence of a priori determinants on biosecurity behaviour we used a behavioural economics method, structural equation modelling (SEM) with observed and latent variables. SEM is a statistical technique for testing and estimating causal relationships amongst variables, some of which may be latent using a combination of statistical data and qualitative causal assumptions. Thirteen latent variables were identified and extracted, expressing the behaviour and the underlying determining factors. The variables were: experience, economic factors, organic certification of farm, membership in a cattle/sheep health scheme, perceived usefulness of biosecurity information sources, knowledge about biosecurity measures, perceived importance of specific biosecurity strategies, perceived effect (on farm business in the past five years) of welfare/health regulation, perceived effect of severe outbreaks of animal diseases, attitudes towards livestock biosecurity, attitudes towards animal welfare, influence on decision to apply biosecurity measures and biosecurity behaviour. The SEM model applied on the Great Britain sample has an adequate fit according to the measures of absolute, incremental and parsimonious fit. The results suggest that farmers’ perceived importance of specific biosecurity strategies, organic certification of farm, knowledge about biosecurity measures, attitudes towards animal welfare, perceived usefulness of biosecurity information sources, perceived effect on business during the past five years of severe outbreaks of animal diseases, membership in a cattle/sheep health scheme, attitudes towards livestock biosecurity, influence on decision to apply biosecurity measures, experience and economic factors are significantly influencing behaviour (overall explaining 64% of the variance in behaviour).

Classification of seed storage behaviour of 67 Amazonian tree species

Information was collated on the seed storage behaviour of 67 tree species native to the Amazon rainforest of Brazil; 38 appeared to show orthodox, 23 recalcitrant and six intermediate seed storage behaviour. A double-criteria key based on thousand-seed weight and seed moisture content at shedding to estimate likely seed storage behaviour, developed previously, showed good agreement with the above classifications. The key can aid seed storage behaviour identification considerably.

Protein precipitation behaviour of condensed tannins from Lotus pedunculatus and Trifolium repens with different mean degrees of polymerization

The precipitation of bovine serum albumin (BSA), lysozyme (LYS) and alfalfa leaf protein (ALF) by two large- and two medium-sized condensed tannin (CT) fractions of similar flavan-3-ol subunit composition is described. CT fractions isolated from white clover flowers and big trefoil leaves exhibited high purity profiles by 1D/2D NMR and purities >90% (determined by thiolysis). At pH 6.5, large CTs with a mean degree of polymerization (mDP) of ~18 exhibited similar protein precipitation behaviors and were significantly more effective than medium CTs (mDP ~9). Medium CTs exhibited similar capacities to precipitate ALF or BSA, but showed small but significant differences in their capacity to precipitate LYS. All CTs precipitated ALF more effectively than BSA or LYS. Aggregation of CT-protein complexes likely aided precipitation of ALF and BSA, but not LYS. This study, one of the first to use CTs of confirmed high purity, demonstrates that mDP of CTs influences protein precipitation efficacy.

Contrasting behaviour of cadmium and zinc in a soil–plant–arthropod system

This study investigates the transfer of Cd and Zn from a soil amended with sewage sludge at rates up to 100 t ha(-1) through a multi-trophic system consisting of barley, the aphid Sitobion avenae and the larvae of the lacewing Chrysoperla carnae. Results show marked differences in the transfer of the two metals. Cadmium was freely accumulated in barley roots, but accumulation in the shoot was restricted to a concentration of around 0.22 mg kg(-1) (dry weight). This limited the transfer of Cd to higher trophic levels and resulted in no significant accumulation of Cd in S. avenae or in C. carnae. Zinc transfer in the system was largely unrestricted, resulting in significant accumulation in roots and shoots, in S. avenae and in C. carnae. Cadmium biomagnification occurred in lacewing pupae, with concentrations up to 3.6 times greater than in aphids. S. avenae biomagnified Zn by a factor of ca. 2.5 at low sludge amendment rates, but biomagnification decreased to a factor of 1.4 at the highest amendment rate. Biomagnification of Zn did not occur in C. carnae, but concentrations were up to 3.5 time higher than in soil. Results are discussed in light of the mechanisms regulating transfer of the two metals in the system.

Effect of temperature and strain rate on the compressive behaviour of supramolecular polyurethane

Supramolecular polyurethanes (SPUs) possess thermoresponsive and thermoreversible properties, and those characteristics are highly desirable in both bulk commodity and value-added applications such as adhesives, shape-memory materials, healable coatings and lightweight, impact-resistant structures (e.g. protection for mobile electronics). A better understanding of the mechanical properties, especially the rate and temperature sensitivity, of these materials are required to assess their suitability for different applications. In this paper, a newly developed SPU with tuneable thermal properties was studied, and the response of this SPU to compressive loading over strain rates from 10−3 to 104 s−1 was presented. Furthermore, the effect of temperature on the mechanical response was also demonstrated. The sample was tested using an Instron mechanical testing machine for quasi-static loading, a home-made hydraulic system for moderate rates and a traditional split Hopkinson pressure bars (SHPBs) for high strain rates. Results showed that the compression stress-strain behaviour was affected significantly by the thermoresponsive nature of SPU, but that, as expected for polymeric materials, the general trends of the temperature and the rate dependence mirror each other. However, this behaviour is more complicated than observed for many other polymeric materials, as a result of the richer range of transitions that influence the behaviour over the range of temperatures and strain rates tested.

Effect of substrate on the locomotion behaviour of the South American iguanian lizard Polychrus acutirostris

Arboreal and terrestrial habitats impose different constraints on tetrapod locomotion. We studied Polychrus acutirostris, a tree-dwelling lizard that also moves on the ground, in order to evaluate the effects of support incline and diameter on locomotion parameters. Limb movements of six specimens were filmed to quantify kinematic variables (velocity, stride frequency, stride length, and limb coordination) on distinct perch diameters (4.0, 1.5, 0.8 cm) and inclines (90, 45, and on level ground). The results show a notable slowness in arboreal habitat combined with a relatively fast locomotion when using the ground as temporary habitat. These animals developed walking trots mainly using lateral sequence. Non-symmetrical trots adopted at the highest velocities on the ground indicate difficulties of ""accommodation"" to the constraints imposed by this condition. Velocity generally decreases with the decreasing diameter, and with increasing incline, of the supports. Slowness, gaits favouring the body stability, elective role of the stride frequency in the modulation of the speed, and the role of the hindlimb in the force exchange to propel the body, constitute the main features of the locomotion pattern of P. acutirostris.