Risk Factors for tuberculosis among human immunodeficiency virus-infected persons. A case-control study in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil (1985-1996)

The objective of this study was to identify tuberculosis risk factors and possible surrogate markers among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons. A retrospective case-control study was carried out at the HIV outpatient clinic of the Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais in Belo Horizonte. We reviewed the demographic, social-economical and medical data of 477 HIV-infected individuals evaluated from 1985 to 1996. The variables were submitted to an univariate and stratified analysis. Aids related complex (ARC), past history of pneumonia, past history of hospitalization, CD4 count and no antiretroviral use were identified as possible effect modifiers and confounding variables, and were submitted to logistic regression analysis by the stepwise method. ARC had an odds ratio (OR) of 3.5 (CI 95% - 1.2-10.8) for tuberculosis development. Past history of pneumonia (OR 1.7 - CI 95% 0.6-5.2) and the CD4 count (OR 0.4 - CI 0.2-1.2) had no statistical significance. These results show that ARC is an important clinical surrogate for tuberculosis in HIV-infected patients. Despite the need of confirmation in future studies, these results suggest that the ideal moment for tuberculosis chemoprophylaxis could be previous to the introduction of antiretroviral treatment or even just after the diagnosis of HIV infection.

Sylvatic vectors invading houses and the risk of emergence of cases of Chagas disease in Salvador, State of Bahia, Northeast Brazil

During the last twenty years, several adults of Triatoma tibiamaculata infected with Trypanosoma cruzi have been spontaneously caught by inhabitants, inside their houses in the new habitational district of Pituaçu of Salvador, Bahia. In this communication the authors call attention to the necessity of studies about the possibility of occurrence of new human cases of Chagas disease, to clarify the obscure origin of some positive blood donors in Salvador.

Credit risk contributions under the Vasicek one-factor model: a fast wavelet expansion approximation

To measure the contribution of individual transactions inside the total risk of a credit portfolio is a major issue in financial institutions. VaR Contributions (VaRC) and Expected Shortfall Contributions (ESC) have become two popular ways of quantifying the risks. However, the usual Monte Carlo (MC) approach is known to be a very time consuming method for computing these risk contributions. In this paper we consider the Wavelet Approximation (WA) method for Value at Risk (VaR) computation presented in [Mas10] in order to calculate the Expected Shortfall (ES) and the risk contributions under the Vasicek one-factor model framework. We decompose the VaR and the ES as a sum of sensitivities representing the marginal impact on the total portfolio risk. Moreover, we present technical improvements in the Wavelet Approximation (WA) that considerably reduce the computational effort in the approximation while, at the same time, the accuracy increases.

Relevance of biallelic versus monoallelic TNFRSF13B mutations in distinguishing disease-causing from risk-increasing TNFRSF13B variants in antibody deficiency syndromes.

TNFRSF13B encodes transmembrane activator and calcium modulator and cyclophilin ligand interactor (TACI), a B cell- specific tumor necrosis factor (TNF) receptor superfamily member. Both biallelic and monoallelic TNFRSF13B mutations were identified in patients with common variable immunodeficiency disorders. The genetic complexity and variable clinical presentation of TACI deficiency prompted us to evaluate the genetic, immunologic, and clinical condition in 50 individuals with TNFRSF13B alterations, following screening of 564 unrelated patients with hypogammaglobulinemia. We identified 13 new sequence variants. The most frequent TNFRSF13B variants (C104R and A181E; n=39; 6.9%) were also present in a heterozygous state in 2% of 675 controls. All patients with biallelic mutations had hypogammaglobulinemia and nearly all showed impaired binding to a proliferation-inducing ligand (APRIL). However, the majority (n=41; 82%) of the pa-tients carried monoallelic changes in TNFRSF13B. Presence of a heterozygous mutation was associated with antibody deficiency (P< .001, relative risk 3.6). Heterozygosity for the most common mutation, C104R, was associated with disease (P< .001, relative risk 4.2). Furthermore, heterozygosity for C104R was associated with low numbers of IgD(-)CD27(+) B cells (P= .019), benign lymphoproliferation (P< .001), and autoimmune complications (P= .001). These associations indicate that C104R heterozygosity increases the risk for common variable immunodeficiency disorders and influences clinical presentation.

Alcohol drinking and cardiovascular risk in a population with high mean alcohol consumption.

Moderate alcohol consumption has been associated with lower coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. However, data on the CAD risk associated with high alcohol consumption are conflicting. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of heavier drinking on 10-year CAD risk in a population with high mean alcohol consumption. In a population-based study of 5,769 adults (aged 35 to 75 years) without cardiovascular disease in Switzerland, 1-week alcohol consumption was categorized as 0, 1 to 6, 7 to 13, 14 to 20, 21 to 27, 28 to 34, and > or =35 drinks/week or as nondrinkers (0 drinks/week), moderate (1 to 13 drinks/week), high (14 to 34 drinks/week), and very high (> or =35 drinks/week). Blood pressure and lipids were measured, and 10-year CAD risk was calculated according to the Framingham risk score. Seventy-three percent (n = 4,214) of the participants consumed alcohol; 16% (n = 909) were high drinkers and 2% (n = 119) very high drinkers. In multivariate analysis, increasing alcohol consumption was associated with higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (from a mean +/- SE of 1.57 +/- 0.01 mmol/L in nondrinkers to 1.88 +/- 0.03 mmol/L in very high drinkers); triglycerides (1.17 +/- 1.01 to 1.32 +/- 1.05 mmol/L), and systolic and diastolic blood pressure (127.4 +/- 0.4 to 132.2 +/- 1.4 mm Hg and 78.7 +/- 0.3 to 81.7 +/- 0.9 mm Hg, respectively) (all p values for trend <0.001). Ten-year CAD risk increased from 4.31 +/- 0.10% to 4.90 +/- 0.37% (p = 0.03) with alcohol use, with a J-shaped relation. Increasing wine consumption was more related to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, whereas beer and spirits were related to increased triglyceride levels. In conclusion, as measured by 10-year CAD risk, the protective effect of alcohol consumption disappears in very high drinkers, because the beneficial increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol is offset by the increases in blood pressure levels.

Solvency Capital estimation and Risk Measures

This paper examines why a financial entity’s solvency capital estimation might be underestimated if the total amount required is obtained directly from a risk measurement. Using Monte Carlo simulation we show that, in some instances, a common risk measure such as Value-at-Risk is not subadditive when certain dependence structures are considered. Higher risk evaluations are obtained for independence between random variables than those obtained in the case of comonotonicity. The paper stresses, therefore, the relationship between dependence structures and capital estimation.