The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis

Background: The individual risk of developing psychosis after being tested for clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria (posttest risk of psychosis) depends on the underlying risk of the disease of the population from which the person is selected (pretest risk of psychosis), and thus on recruitment strategies. Yet, the impact of recruitment strategies on pretest risk of psychosis is unknown. Methods: Meta-analysis of the pretest risk of psychosis in help-seeking patients selected to undergo CHR assessment: total transitions to psychosis over the pool of patients assessed for potential risk and deemed at risk (CHR+) or not at risk (CHR−). Recruitment strategies (number of outreach activities per study, main target of outreach campaign, and proportion of self-referrals) were the moderators examined in meta-regressions. Results: 11 independent studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 2519 (CHR+: n = 1359; CHR−: n = 1160) help-seeking patients undergoing CHR assessment (mean follow-up: 38 months). The overall meta-analytical pretest risk for psychosis in help-seeking patients was 15%, with high heterogeneity (95% CI: 9%–24%, I 2 = 96, P < .001). Recruitment strategies were heterogeneous and opportunistic. Heterogeneity was largely explained by intensive (n = 11, β = −.166, Q = 9.441, P = .002) outreach campaigns primarily targeting the general public (n = 11, β = −1.15, Q = 21.35, P < .001) along with higher proportions of self-referrals (n = 10, β = −.029, Q = 4.262, P = .039), which diluted pretest risk for psychosis in patients undergoing CHR assessment. Conclusions: There is meta-analytical evidence for overall risk enrichment (pretest risk for psychosis at 38monhts = 15%) in help-seeking samples selected for CHR assessment as compared to the general population (pretest risk of psychosis at 38monhts=0.1%). Intensive outreach campaigns predominantly targeting the general population and a higher proportion of self-referrals diluted the pretest risk for psychosis.

Geochronology and isotope geochemistry of Eocene dykes intruding the Ladakh Batholith

In order to determine the extent and timing of dyke formation in the Ladakh Batholith we examined about 30 mostly andesitic dykes intruding the Ladakh batholith in a ca. 50 km wide area to the west of Leh (NW India). The dykes in the east of the area trend E-NE and those in the west trend N-NW. The difference in orientation is also evident in the petrography and isotopic signatures. The eastern dykes contain corroded quartz xenocrysts and show negative ε0(Nd) and positive ε0(Sr) values, where as the western dykes do not contain quartz xenocrysts and exhibit positive ε0(Nd) and near-zero ε0(Sr) values. The variability in Sr-Nd isotopes (ε0(Nd) = 3.6 to −9.6, ε0(Sr) = 0.4 to 143) and the quartz xenocrysts can best be explained by (differing degrees of) crustal assimilation of the parent magma of the dykes. Separated minerals from five dykes were dated by 40Ar-39Ar incremental heating: amphibole ages range between 50 and 54 Ma, and one biotite dated both by Rb-Sr and by 40Ar-39Ar gave an age of 45 Ma. One dated pseudotachylyte sample attests to brittle faulting at ca. 54 Ma. The combination of structural field evidence with petrographic, isotopic and geochronological analyses demonstrates that the dykes did not form from a single, progressively differentiating magma chamber, despite having formed in the same tectonic setting around the same time, and that processes such as crustal assimilation and magma mixing/mingling also played a significant role in magma petrogenesis.

Redox front geochemistry and weathering: theory with application to the Osamu Utsumi uranium mine, Poços de Caldas, Brazil

Numerical calculations describing weathering of the Poços de Caldas alkaline complex (Minas Gerais, Brazil) by infiltrating groundwater are carried out for time spans up to two million years in the absence of pyrite, and up to 500,000 years with pyrite present. Deposition of uranium resulting from infiltration of oxygenated, uranium bearing groundwater through the hydrothermally altered phonolitic host rock at the Osamu Utsumi uranium mine is also included in the latter calculation. The calculations are based on the quasi-stationary state approximation to mass conservation equations for pure advective transport. This approximation enables the prediction of solute concentrations, mineral abundances and porosity as functions of time and distance over geologic time spans. Mineral reactions are described by kinetic rate laws for both precipitation and dissolution. Homogeneous equilibrium is assumed to be maintained within the aqueous phase. No other constraints are imposed on the calculations other than the initial composition of the unaltered host rock and the composition of the inlet fluid, taken as rainwater modified by percolation through a soil zone. The results are in qualitative agreement with field observations at the Osamu Utsumi uranium mine. They predict a lateritic cover followed by a highly porous saprolitic zone, a zone of oxidized rock with pyrite replaced by iron-hydroxide, a sharp redox front at which uranium is deposited, and the reduced unweathered host rock. Uranium is deposited in a narrow zone located on the reduced side of the redox front in association with pyrite, in agreement with field observations. The calculations predict the formation of a broad dissolution front of primary kaolinite that penetrates deep into the host rock accompanied by the precipitation of secondary illite. Secondary kaolinite occurs in a saprolitic zone near the surface and in the vicinity of the redox front. Gibbsite forms a bi-modal distribution consisting of a maximum near the surface followed by a thin tongue extending downward into the weathered profile in agreement with field observations. The results are found to be insensitive to the kinetic rate constants used to describe mineral reactions.

The Making of Optimal and Consistent Policy: An Analytical Framework for Monetary Models

This paper shows that optimal policy and consistent policy outcomes require the use of control-theory and game-theory solution techniques. While optimal policy and consistent policy often produce different outcomes even in a one-period model, we analyze consistent policy and its outcome in a simple model, finding that the cause of the inconsistency with optimal policy traces to inconsistent targets in the social loss function. As a result, the central bank should adopt a loss function that differs from the social loss function. Carefully designing the central bank s loss function with consistent targets can harmonize optimal and consistent policy. This desirable result emerges from two observations. First, the social loss function reflects a normative process that does not necessarily prove consistent with the structure of the microeconomy. Thus, the social loss function cannot serve as a direct loss function for the central bank. Second, an optimal loss function for the central bank must depend on the structure of that microeconomy. In addition, this paper shows that control theory provides a benchmark for institution design in a game-theoretical framework.

Monte Carlo and analytical dose calculations for ocular proton therapy

Uveal melanoma is a rare but life-threatening form of ocular cancer. Contemporary treatment techniques include proton therapy, which enables conservation of the eye and its useful vision. Dose to the proximal structures is widely believed to play a role in treatment side effects, therefore, reliable dose estimates are required for properly evaluating the therapeutic value and complication risk of treatment plans. Unfortunately, current simplistic dose calculation algorithms can result in errors of up to 30% in the proximal region. In addition, they lack predictive methods for absolute dose per monitor unit (D/MU) values. ^ To facilitate more accurate dose predictions, a Monte Carlo model of an ocular proton nozzle was created and benchmarked against measured dose profiles to within ±3% or ±0.5 mm and D/MU values to within ±3%. The benchmarked Monte Carlo model was used to develop and validate a new broad beam dose algorithm that included the influence of edgescattered protons on the cross-field intensity profile, the effect of energy straggling in the distal portion of poly-energetic beams, and the proton fluence loss as a function of residual range. Generally, the analytical algorithm predicted relative dose distributions that were within ±3% or ±0.5 mm and absolute D/MU values that were within ±3% of Monte Carlo calculations. Slightly larger dose differences were observed at depths less than 7 mm, an effect attributed to the dose contributions of edge-scattered protons. Additional comparisons of Monte Carlo and broad beam dose predictions were made in a detailed eye model developed in this work, with generally similar findings. ^ Monte Carlo was shown to be an excellent predictor of the measured dose profiles and D/MU values and a valuable tool for developing and validating a broad beam dose algorithm for ocular proton therapy. The more detailed physics modeling by the Monte Carlo and broad beam dose algorithms represent an improvement in the accuracy of relative dose predictions over current techniques, and they provide absolute dose predictions. It is anticipated these improvements can be used to develop treatment strategies that reduce the incidence or severity of treatment complications by sparing normal tissue. ^

EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ANISOTROPIC ANALYTICAL ALGORITHM IN FLATTENED AND FLATTENING-FILTER-FREE BEAMS FOR HIGH ENERGY LUNG DOSE DELIVERY USING THE RADIOLOGICAL PHYSICS CENTER LUNG PHANTOM

The effectiveness of the Anisotropic Analytical Algorithm (AAA) implemented in the Eclipse treatment planning system (TPS) was evaluated using theRadiologicalPhysicsCenteranthropomorphic lung phantom using both flattened and flattening-filter-free high energy beams. Radiation treatment plans were developed following the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group and theRadiologicalPhysicsCenterguidelines for lung treatment using Stereotactic Radiation Body Therapy. The tumor was covered such that at least 95% of Planning Target Volume (PTV) received 100% of the prescribed dose while ensuring that normal tissue constraints were followed as well. Calculated doses were exported from the Eclipse TPS and compared with the experimental data as measured using thermoluminescence detectors (TLD) and radiochromic films that were placed inside the phantom. The results demonstrate that the AAA superposition-convolution algorithm is able to calculate SBRT treatment plans with all clinically used photon beams in the range from 6 MV to 18 MV. The measured dose distribution showed a good agreement with the calculated distribution using clinically acceptable criteria of ±5% dose or 3mm distance to agreement. These results show that in a heterogeneous environment a 3D pencil beam superposition-convolution algorithms with Monte Carlo pre-calculated scatter kernels, such as AAA, are able to reliably calculate dose, accounting for increased lateral scattering due to the loss of electronic equilibrium in low density medium. The data for high energy plans (15 MV and 18 MV) showed very good tumor coverage in contrast to findings by other investigators for less sophisticated dose calculation algorithms, which demonstrated less than expected tumor doses and generally worse tumor coverage for high energy plans compared to 6MV plans. This demonstrates that the modern superposition-convolution AAA algorithm is a significant improvement over previous algorithms and is able to calculate doses accurately for SBRT treatment plans in the highly heterogeneous environment of the thorax for both lower (≤12 MV) and higher (greater than 12 MV) beam energies.

Analytical frame for public policy implementation

"I don't think we truly understand how to implement. What does it mean to truly implement? Not the command center type that our culture is very good at, but a thorough planned systematic approach" (HP, 9.28.2011). This important question is asked by a clinician who works in a health care setting and who has experienced the implementation of a public policy. This case study applied the lessons learned from three generations of public policy research to a health care setting. As a result of the study an analytical frame was created as a guide to assess an organization's readiness for the implementation of a public policy.^

Sand geochemistry on sediment core CRP-3 from the Ross Sea, Antarctica

A total of 167 samples distubuted throughout the CRP-3 drillhole from 5.77 to 787.68 mbsf and representing fine to coarse sandstones have been analysed by X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF) Bulk sample geochemistry (major and trace elements) indicates a dominant provenance of detritus from the Ferrar Supergroup in the uppermost 200 mbsf of the core. A markedly increased contribution from the Beacon sandstones is recognized below 200 mbsf and down to 600 mbsf. In the lower part of CRP-3, down to 787.68 mbsf, geochemical evidence for influxes of Ferrar materials is again recorded. On the basis of preliminary magnetostratigraphic data reported for the lower 447 mbsf of the drillhole, we tentatively evaluated the main periodicities modulating the geochemical records. Our results identify a possible influence of the precession, obliquity and long-eccentricity astronomical components (21, 41, and 400 ky frequency bands) on the deposition mechanisms of the studied glaciomarine sediments.

Geochemistry of bulk samples and various minerals of sediment core CRP-1 from the Ross Sea, Antarctica

Thirty-nine medium and fine grained sandstones from between 19,26 and 147,23 mbsf in the Cape Roberts-l core (CRP-1) were analysed for 10 major and 16 trace elements. Using whole-lock compositions, 9 samples were selected for analyses of mineral and glass grains by energy dispersive electron microscope. Laser-Ablation Mass-Spectrometry was used to determine rare earth elements and 14 additional trace elements in glass shards, pyroxenes and feldspars in order to examine their contribution to the bulk rock chemistry. Geochemical data reveal the major contribution played by the Granite Harbour Intrusives to the whole rock composition, even if a significant input is supplied by McMurdo volcanics and Ferrar dolerite pyroxenes McMurdo volcanics were studied in detail; they appeal to derive from a variety of litologies, and a dominant role of wind transpoitation from exposures of volcanic rocks may be inferred from the contemporary occurrence of different compositions at all depths. Only at 116.55 mbsf was a thin layer of tephra found, linked to an explosive eruption McMurdo volcanic rocks exhibit larger abundances at depths above 62 mbsf, in correspondence with the onset of volcanic activity in the McMurdo Sound area. From 62 mbsf to the bottom of the core, McMurdo volcanics are less abundant and probably issued from some centres in the McMurdo Sound region. However, available data do not allow the exclusion of wind transport from some eruptive centres active in north Victoria Land at the beginning of the Miocene Epoch.

Petrology and geochemistry at DSDP Site 89-462

The 16 samples of Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Leg 89 basalts that we analyzed for whole rock major and trace elements and for mineralogic compositions are identical to some of the basalts recovered during Leg 61. Leg 89 samples are mostly olivine-plagioclase-clinopyroxene sparsely phyric basalts and exhibit a wide variety of textures. These basalts have lower TiO2 at a given Mg/(Mg+Fe2+)*100 than MORB (midocean ridge basalt). We recognize three major chemical types of basalts in the Nauru Basin. We believe that different degrees of partial melting, modified by fractional crystallization and possibly by magma mixing at shallow depths, can explain the chemical differences among the three groups. This petrogenetic model is consistent with the observed downhole chemical-chronostratigraphic relations of the samples. New 87Sr/86Sr and U3Nd/144Nd analyses of basalt samples from DSDP Site 462 indicate that the Nauru Basin igneous complex is within the Sr-Nd isotopic range of ocean island basalt. Thus the Nauru Basin igneous complex resembles MORB in many aspects of its chemistry, morphology, and secondary alteration patterns (Larson, Schlanger, et al., 1981), but not in its isotopic characteristics. If it were not for the unambiguous evidence that the Nauru Basin complex was erupted off-ridge, the complex could easily be interpreted as normal oceanic layer 2. For this reason, we speculate that the Nauru Basin igneous complex was produced in an oceanic riftlike environment when multiple, fast-propagating rifts were formed during the fast seafloor spreading episode in the Cretaceous.