A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Indoor air: Contemporary sources, exposures and global implications

Recent 'Global Burden of Disease' studies have provided quantitative evidence of the significant role air pollution plays as a human health risk factor (Lim et al., The Lancet, 380: 2224–2260, 2012). Tobacco smoke, including second hand smoke, household air pollution from solid fuels and ambient particulate matter are among the top risks, leading to lower life expectancy around the world. Indoor air constitutes an environment particularly rich in different types of pollutants, originating from indoor sources, as well as penetrating from outdoors, mixing, interacting or growing (when considering microbes) under the protective enclosure of the building envelope. Therefore, it is not a simple task to follow the dynamics of the processes occurring there, or to quantify the outcomes of the processes in terms of pollutant concentrations and other characteristics. This is further complicated by limitations such as building access for the purpose of air quality monitoring, or the instrumentation which can be used indoors, because of their possible interference with the occupants comfort (due to their large size, noise generated or amount of air drawn). European studies apportioned contributions of indoor versus outdoor sources of indoor air contaminants in 26 European countries and quantified IAQ associated DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) in those countries (Jantunen et al., Promoting actions for healthy indoor air (IAIAQ), European Commission Directorate General for Health and Consumers, Luxembourg, 2011). At the same time, there has been an increase in research efforts around the world to better understand the sources, composition, dynamics and impacts of indoor air pollution. Particular focus has been directed towards the contemporary sources, novel pollutants and new detection methods. The importance of exposure assessment and personal exposure, the majority of which occurs in various indoor micro¬environments, has also been realized. Overall, this emerging knowledge has been providing input for global assessments of indoor environments, the impact of indoor pollutants and their science based management and control. It was a major outcome of recent international conferences that interdisciplinarity and especially a better colla¬boration between exposure and indoor sciences would be of high benefit for the health related evaluation of environmental stress factors and pollutants. A very good example is the combination of biomonitoring and indoor air, particle and dust analysis to study the exposure routes of semi volatile organic compounds (SVOCs). We have adopted the idea of combining the forces of exposure and indoor sciences for this Special Issue, identified new and challenging topics and have attracted colleagues who are top researchers in their field to provide their inputs. The Special Issue includes papers, which collectively present advances in current research topics and in our view, build the bridge between indoor and exposure sciences.