A probabilistic approach to niche-based community models for spatial forecasts of assemblage properties and their uncertainties

Aim Conservation strategies are in need of predictions that capture spatial community composition and structure. Currently, the methods used to generate these predictions generally focus on deterministic processes and omit important stochastic processes and other unexplained variation in model outputs. Here we test a novel approach of community models that accounts for this variation and determine how well it reproduces observed properties of alpine butterfly communities. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We propose a new approach to process probabilistic predictions derived from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) in order to predict and assess the uncertainty in the predictions of community properties. We test the utility of our novel approach against a traditional threshold-based approach. We used mountain butterfly communities spanning a large elevation gradient as a case study and evaluated the ability of our approach to model species richness and phylogenetic diversity of communities. Results S-SDMs reproduced the observed decrease in phylogenetic diversity and species richness with elevation, syndromes of environmental filtering. The prediction accuracy of community properties vary along environmental gradient: variability in predictions of species richness was higher at low elevation, while it was lower for phylogenetic diversity. Our approach allowed mapping the variability in species richness and phylogenetic diversity projections. Main conclusion Using our probabilistic approach to process species distribution models outputs to reconstruct communities furnishes an improved picture of the range of possible assemblage realisations under similar environmental conditions given stochastic processes and help inform manager of the uncertainty in the modelling results

Nanomechanical properties of molecular organic thin films

Using atomic force microscopy we have studied the nanomechanical response to nanoindentations of surfaces of highly oriented molecular organic thin films (thickness¿1000¿nm). The Young¿s modulus E can be estimated from the elastic deformation using Hertzian mechanics. For the quasi-one-dimensional metal tetrathiafulvalene tetracyanoquinodimethane E~20¿GPa and for the ¿ phase of the p-nitrophenyl nitronyl nitroxide radical E~2GPa. Above a few GPa, the surfaces deform plastically as evidenced by discrete discontinuities in the indentation curves associated to molecular layers being expelled by the penetrating tip.

Electronic structure and properties of AlN

The electronic structure of the wurtzite-type phase of aluminum nitride has been investigated by means of periodic ab initio Hartree-Fock calculations. The binding energy, lattice parameters (a,c), and the internal coordinate (u) have been calculated. All structural parameters are in excellent agreement with the experimental data. The electronic structure and bonding in AlN are analyzed by means of density-of-states projections and electron-density maps. The calculated values of the bulk modulus, its pressure derivative, the optical-phonon frequencies at the center of the Brillouin zone, and the full set of elastic constants are in good agreement with the experimental data.