A Hundred Comets: The Visual-Wavelength Observations of the Survey of Ensemble Physical Properties of Cometary Nuclei (SEPPCoN)

We present new results from SEPPCoN, a Survey of Ensemble Physical Properties of Cometary Nuclei. This project is currently surveying 100 Jupiter-family comets (JFCs) to measure the mid-infrared thermal emission and visible reflected sunlight of the nuclei. The scientific goal is to determine the distributions of radius, geometric albedo, thermal inertia, axial ratio, and color among the JFC nuclei. In the past we have presented results from the completed mid-IR observations of our sample [1]; here we present preliminary results from ongoing, broadband visible-wavelength observations of nuclei obtained from a variety of ground-based facilities (Mauna Kea, Cerro Pachon, La Silla, La Palma, Apache Point, Table Mtn., and Palomar Mtn.), including contributions from the Near Earth Asteroid Telescope project (NEAT) archive. The nuclei were observed at high heliocentric distance (usually over 4 AU) and so many comets show either no or little contamination from dust coma. While several nuclei have been observed as snapshots, we have multiepoch photometry for many of our targets. With our datasets we are building a large database of photometry, and such a database is essential to the derivation of albedo and shape of a large number of nuclei, and to the understanding of biases in the survey. Support for this work was provided by NSF and the NASA Planetary Astronomy program. Reference: [1] Fernandez, Y.R., et al. 2007, BAAS 39, 827.

Game-­theoretic Resource Allocation with Real-­time Probabilistic Surveillance Information

Game-theoretic security resource allocation problems have generated significant interest in the area of designing and developing security systems. These approaches traditionally utilize the Stackelberg game model for security resource scheduling in order to improve the protection of critical assets. The basic assumption in Stackelberg games is that a defender will act first, then an attacker will choose their best response after observing the defender’s strategy commitment (e.g., protecting a specific asset). Thus, it requires an attacker’s full or partial observation of a defender’s strategy. This assumption is unrealistic in real-time threat recognition and prevention. In this paper, we propose a new solution concept (i.e., a method to predict how a game will be played) for deriving the defender’s optimal strategy based on the principle of acceptable costs of minimax regret. Moreover, we demonstrate the advantages of this solution concept by analyzing its properties.

Hui and Walter's latent-class model extended to estimate diagnostic test properties from surveillance data: a latent model for latent data

Diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity are probabilistic estimates with far reaching implications for disease control, management and genetic studies. In the absence of 'gold standard' tests, traditional Bayesian latent class models may be used to assess diagnostic test accuracies through the comparison of two or more tests performed on the same groups of individuals. The aim of this study was to extend such models to estimate diagnostic test parameters and true cohort-specific prevalence, using disease surveillance data. The traditional Hui-Walter latent class methodology was extended to allow for features seen in such data, including (i) unrecorded data (i.e. data for a second test available only on a subset of the sampled population) and (ii) cohort-specific sensitivities and specificities. The model was applied with and without the modelling of conditional dependence between tests. The utility of the extended model was demonstrated through application to bovine tuberculosis surveillance data from Northern and the Republic of Ireland. Simulation coupled with re-sampling techniques, demonstrated that the extended model has good predictive power to estimate the diagnostic parameters and true herd-level prevalence from surveillance data. Our methodology can aid in the interpretation of disease surveillance data, and the results can potentially refine disease control strategies.

Gleason Upgrading with Time in a Large Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance Cohort

PURPOSE: We report the percentage of patients on active surveillance who had disease pathologically upgraded and factors that predict for upgrading on surveillance biopsies.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients in our active surveillance database with at least 1 repeat prostate biopsy were included. Histological upgrading was defined as any increase in primary or secondary Gleason grade on repeat biopsy. Multivariate analysis was used to determine baseline and dynamic factors associated with Gleason upgrading. This information was used to develop a nomogram to predict for upgrading or treatment in patients electing for active surveillance.

RESULTS: Of 862 patients in our cohort 592 had 2 or more biopsies. Median followup was 6.4 years. Of the patients 20% were intermediate risk, 0.3% were high risk and all others were low risk. During active surveillance 31.3% of cases were upgraded. On multivariate analysis clinical stage T2, higher prostate specific antigen and higher percentage of cores involved with disease at the time of diagnosis predicted for upgrading. A total of 27 cases (15% of those upgraded) were Gleason 8 or higher at upgrading, and 62% of all 114 upgraded cases went on to have active treatment. The nomogram incorporated clinical stage, age, prostate specific antigen, core positivity and Gleason score. The concordance index was 0.61.

CONCLUSIONS: In this large re-biopsy cohort with medium-term followup, most cases have not been pathologically upgraded to date. A model predicting for upgrading or radical treatment was developed which could be useful in counseling patients considering active surveillance for prostate cancer.

Long-Term Follow-Up of a Large Active Surveillance Cohort of Patients With Prostate Cancer

PURPOSE: Active surveillance is increasingly accepted as a treatment option for favorable-risk prostate cancer. Long-term follow-up has been lacking. In this study, we report the long-term outcome of a large active surveillance protocol in men with favorable-risk prostate cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a prospective single-arm cohort study carried out at a single academic health sciences center, 993 men with favorable- or intermediate-risk prostate cancer were managed with an initial expectant approach. Intervention was offered for a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) doubling time of less than 3 years, Gleason score progression, or unequivocal clinical progression. Main outcome measures were overall and disease-specific survival, rate of treatment, and PSA failure rate in the treated patients.

RESULTS: Among the 819 survivors, the median follow-up time from the first biopsy is 6.4 years (range, 0.2 to 19.8 years). One hundred forty-nine (15%) of 993 patients died, and 844 patients are alive (censored rate, 85.0%). There were 15 deaths (1.5%) from prostate cancer. The 10- and 15-year actuarial cause-specific survival rates were 98.1% and 94.3%, respectively. An additional 13 patients (1.3%) developed metastatic disease and are alive with confirmed metastases (n = 9) or have died of other causes (n = 4). At 5, 10, and 15 years, 75.7%, 63.5%, and 55.0% of patients remained untreated and on surveillance. The cumulative hazard ratio for nonprostate-to-prostate cancer mortality was 9.2:1.

CONCLUSION: Active surveillance for favorable-risk prostate cancer is feasible and seems safe in the 15-year time frame. In our cohort, 2.8% of patients have developed metastatic disease, and 1.5% have died of prostate cancer. This mortality rate is consistent with expected mortality in favorable-risk patients managed with initial definitive intervention.

Handling Sequential Observations in Intelligent Surveillance

Demand for intelligent surveillance in public transport systems is growing due to the increased threats of terrorist attack, vandalism and litigation. The aim of intelligent surveillance is in-time reaction to information received from various monitoring devices, especially CCTV systems. However, video analytic algorithms can only provide static assertions, whilst in reality, many related events happen in sequence and hence should be modeled sequentially. Moreover, analytic algorithms are error-prone, hence how to correct the sequential analytic results based on new evidence (external information or later sensing discovery) becomes an interesting issue. In this paper, we introduce a high-level sequential observation modeling framework which can support revision and update on new evidence. This framework adapts the situation calculus to deal with uncertainty from analytic results. The output of the framework can serve as a foundation for event composition. We demonstrate the significance and usefulness of our framework with a case study of a bus surveillance project.

Virtual Thrower Versus Real Goalkeeper: The Influence of Different Visual Conditions on Performance

In order to use virtual reality as a sport analysis tool, we need to be sure that an immersed athlete reacts realistically in a virtual environment. This has been validated for a real handball goalkeeper facing a virtual thrower. However, we currently ignore which visual variables induce a realistic motor behavior of the immersed handball goalkeeper. In this study, we used virtual reality to dissociate the visual information related to the movements of the player from the visual information related to the trajectory of the ball. Thus, the aim is to evaluate the relative influence of these different visual information sources on the goalkeeper's motor behavior. We tested 10 handball goalkeepers who had to predict the final position of the virtual ball in the goal when facing the following: only the throwing action of the attacking player (TA condition), only the resulting ball trajectory (BA condition), and both the throwing action of the attacking player and the resulting ball trajectory (TB condition). Here we show that performance was better in the BA and TB conditions, but contrary to expectations, performance was substantially worse in the TA condition. A significant effect of ball landing zone does, however, suggest that the relative importance between visual information from the player and the ball depends on the targeted zone in the goal. In some cases, body-based cues embedded in the throwing actions may have a minor influence on the ball trajectory and vice versa. Kinematics analysis was then combined with these results to determine why such differences occur depending on the ball landing zone and consequently how it can clarify the role of different sources of visual information on the motor behavior of an athlete immersed in a virtual environment.

Direct Visual Indication of pH Windows: 'Off-On-Off' Fluorescent PET (Photoinduced Electron Transfer) Sensors/Switches

1–3, which contain a fluorophore and two proton receptors with opposite PET (photoinduced electron transfer) characteristics, only display strong fluorescence within a pH window whose position and width are tunable.

Deep Salience: Visual Salience Modeling via Deep Belief Propagation

Visual salience is an intriguing phenomenon observed in biological neural systems. Numerous attempts have been made to model visual salience mathematically using various feature contrasts, either locally or globally. However, these algorithmic models tend to ignore the problem’s biological solutions, in which visual salience appears to arise during the propagation of visual stimuli along the visual cortex. In this paper, inspired by the conjecture that salience arises from deep propagation along the visual cortex, we present a Deep Salience model where a multi-layer model based on successive Markov random fields (sMRF) is proposed to analyze the input image successively through its deep belief propagation. As a result, the foreground object can be automatically separated from the background in a fully unsupervised way. Experimental evaluation on the benchmark dataset validated that our Deep Salience model can consistently outperform eleven state-of-the-art salience models, yielding the higher rates in the precision-recall tests and attaining the best F-measure and mean-square error in the experiments.

Role of early visual cortex in trans-saccadic memory of object features

Early visual cortex (EVC) participates in visual feature memory and the updating of remembered locations across saccades, but its role in the trans-saccadic integration of object features is unknown. We hypothesized that if EVC is involved in updating object features relative to gaze, feature memory should be disrupted when saccades remap an object representation into a simultaneously perturbed EVC site. To test this, we applied transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) over functional magnetic resonance imaging-localized EVC clusters corresponding to the bottom left/right visual quadrants (VQs). During experiments, these VQs were probed psychophysically by briefly presenting a central object (Gabor patch) while subjects fixated gaze to the right or left (and above). After a short memory interval, participants were required to detect the relative change in orientation of a re-presented test object at the same spatial location. Participants either sustained fixation during the memory interval (fixation task) or made a horizontal saccade that either maintained or reversed the VQ of the object (saccade task). Three TMS pulses (coinciding with the pre-, peri-, and postsaccade intervals) were applied to the left or right EVC. This had no effect when (a) fixation was maintained, (b) saccades kept the object in the same VQ, or (c) the EVC quadrant corresponding to the first object was stimulated. However, as predicted, TMS reduced performance when saccades (especially larger saccades) crossed the remembered object location and brought it into the VQ corresponding to the TMS site. This suppression effect was statistically significant for leftward saccades and followed a weaker trend for rightward saccades. These causal results are consistent with the idea that EVC is involved in the gaze-centered updating of object features for trans-saccadic memory and perception.