Prehistoric Pinus woodland dynamics in an upland landscape in northern Scotland: the roles of climate change and human impact

Pollen, microscopic charcoal, palaeohydrological and dendrochronological analyses are applied to a radiocarbon and tephrochronologically dated mid Holocene (ca. 8500–3000 cal B.P.) peat sequence with abundant fossil Pinus (pine) wood. The Pinus populations on peat fluctuated considerably over the period in question. Colonisation by Pinus from ca. 7900–7600 cal B.P. appears to have had no specific environmental trigger; it was probably determined by the rate of migration from particular populations. The second phase, at ca. 5000–4400 cal B.P., was facilitated by anthropogenic interference that reduced competition from other trees. The pollen record shows two Pinus declines. The first at ca. 6200–5500 cal B.P. was caused by a series of rapid and frequent climatic shifts. The second, the so-called pine decline, was very gradual (ca. 4200–3300 cal B.P.) at Loch Farlary and may not have been related to climate change as is often supposed. Low intensity but sustained grazing pressures were more important. Throughout the mid Holocene, the frequency and intensity of burning in these open Pinus–Calluna woods were probably highly sensitive to hydrological (climatic) change. Axe marks on several trees are related to the mid to late Bronze Age, i.e., long after the trees had died.

Plankton and climate

Plankton has two roles with respect to climate: first as an indicator of climate change in present day populations and in the fossil record and second as a factor contributing to climate change through, for example, its role in the CO sub(2) cycle, in cloud formation via dimethylsulfide (DMS) production, and in altering the reflectivity of sea water as a component of suspended particulate matter. Current research on both the contribution of plankton to climate change and its role as an indicator of change are central to predicting potential scenarios that may occur in the future at a time when global mean temperatures are predicted to rise at an unprecedented rate by 1.5-6 degree C within the next 100 years.

Assessing the environmental consequences of CO2 leakage from geological CCS: Generating evidence to support environmental risk assessment

At the start of the industrial revolution (circa 1750) the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) was around 280 ppm. Since that time the burning of fossil fuel, together with other industrial processes such as cement manufacture and changing land use, has increased this value to 400 ppm, for the first time in over 3 million years. With CO2 being a potent greenhouse gas, the consequence of this rise for global temperatures has been dramatic, and not only for air temperatures. Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has warmed by 0.4–0.8 °C during the last century, although regional differences are evident (IPCC, 2007). This rise in atmospheric CO2 levels and the resulting global warming to some extent has been ameliorated by the oceanic uptake of around one quarter of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions (Sabine et al., 2004). Initially this was thought to be having little or no impact on ocean chemistry due to the capacity of the ocean’s carbonate buffering system to neutralise the acidity caused when CO2 dissolves in seawater. However, this assumption was challenged by Caldeira and Wickett (2005) who used model predictions to show that the rate at which carbonate buffering can act was far too slow to moderate significant changes to oceanic chemistry over the next few centuries. Their model predicted that since pre-industrial times, ocean surface water pH had fallen by 0.1 pH unit, indicating a 30% increase in the concentration of H+ ions. Their model also showed that the pH of surface waters could fall by up to 0.4 units before 2100, driven by continued and unabated utilisation of fossil fuels. Alongside increasing levels of dissolved CO2 and H+ (reduced pH) an increase in bicarbonate ions together with a decrease in carbonate ions occurs. These chemical changes are now collectively recognised as “ocean acidification”. Concern now stems from the knowledge that concentrations of H+, CO2, bicarbonate and carbonate ions impact upon many important physiological processes vital to maintaining health and function in marine organisms. Additionally, species have evolved under conditions where the carbonate system has remained relatively stable for millions of years, rendering them with potentially reduced capacity to adapt to this rapid change. Evidence suggests that, whilst the impact of ocean acidification is complex, when considered alongside ocean warming the net effect on the health and productivity of the oceans will be detrimental.

Latitudinal phytoplankton distribution and the neutral theory of biodiversity

Aim Recent studies have suggested that global diatom distributions are not limited by dispersal, in the case of both extant species and fossil species, but rather that environmental filtering explains their spatial patterns. Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity provides a framework in which to test these alternatives. Our aim is to test whether the structure of marine phytoplankton (diatoms, dinoflagellates and coccolithophores) assemblages across the Atlantic agrees with neutral theory predictions. We asked: (1) whether intersite variance in phytoplankton diversity is explained predominantly by dispersal limitation or by environmental conditions; and (2) whether species abundance distributions are consistent with those expected by the neutral model. Location Meridional transect of the Atlantic (50 degrees N50 degrees S). Methods We estimated the relative contributions of environmental factors and geographic distance to phytoplankton composition using similarity matrices, Mantel tests and variation partitioning of the species composition based upon canonical ordination methods. We compared the species abundance distribution of phytoplankton with the neutral model using Etienne's maximum-likelihood inference method. Results Phytoplankton communities are slightly more determined by niche segregation (24%), than by dispersal limitation and ecological drift (17%). In 60% of communities, the assumption of neutrality in species' abundance distributions could not be rejected. In tropical zones, where oceanic gyres enclose large stable water masses, most communities showed low species immigration rates; in contrast, we infer that communities in temperate areas, out of oligotrophic gyres, have higher rates of species immigration. Conclusions Phytoplankton community structure is consistent with partial niche assembly and partial dispersal and drift assembly (neutral processes). The role of dispersal limitation is almost as important as habitat filtering, a fact that has been largely overlooked in previous studies. Furthermore, the polewards increase in immigration rates of species that we have discovered is probably caused by water mixing conditions and productivity.

Biologging, Remotely-Sensed Oceanography and the Continuous Plankton Recorder Reveal the Environmental Determinants of a Seabird Wintering Hotspot

Marine environments are greatly affected by climate change, and understanding how this perturbation affects marine vertebrates is a major issue. In this context, it is essential to identify the environmental drivers of animal distribution. Here, we focused on the little auk (Alle alle), one of the world’s most numerous seabirds and a major component in Arctic food webs. Using a multidisciplinary approach, we show how little auks adopt specific migratory strategies and balance environmental constraints to optimize their energy budgets. Miniature electronic loggers indicate that after breeding, birds from East Greenland migrate .2000 km to overwinter in a restricted area off Newfoundland. Synoptic data available from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) indicate that this region harbours some of the highest densities of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus found in the North Atlantic during winter. Examination of large-scale climatic and oceanographic data suggests that little auks favour patches of high copepod abundance in areas where air temperature ranges from 0uC to 5uC. These results greatly advance our understanding of animal responses to extreme environmental constraints, and highlight that information on habitat preference is key to identifying critical areas for marine conservation.

Impacts of the Oceans on Climate Change

The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea‐level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up ∼40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean ‘carbon pumps’ (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice–ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.

Mesoscale fronts as foraging habitats: composite front mapping reveals oceanographic drivers of habitat use for a pelagic seabird

The oceanographic drivers of marine vertebrate habitat use are poorly understood yet fundamental to our knowledge of marine ecosystem functioning. Here, we use composite front mapping and high-resolution GPS tracking to determine the significance of mesoscale oceanographic fronts as physical drivers of foraging habitat selection in northern gannets Morus bassanus. We tracked 66 breeding gannets from a Celtic Sea colony over 2 years and used residence time to identify area-restricted search (ARS) behaviour. Composite front maps identified thermal and chlorophyll-a mesoscale fronts at two different temporal scales—(i) contemporaneous fronts and (ii) seasonally persistent frontal zones. Using generalized additive models (GAMs), with generalized estimating equations (GEE-GAMs) to account for serial autocorrelation in tracking data, we found that gannets do not adjust their behaviour in response to contemporaneous fronts. However, ARS was more likely to occur within spatially predictable, seasonally persistent frontal zones (GAMs). Our results provide proof of concept that composite front mapping is a useful tool for studying the influence of oceanographic features on animal movements. Moreover, we highlight that frontal persistence is a crucial element of the formation of pelagic foraging hotspots for mobile marine vertebrates.

Do oceanic loggerhead turtles Caretta caretta associate with oceanographic fronts? Evidence from the Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem

ABSTRACT: Oceanographic fronts are physical interfaces between water masses that differ in properties such as temperature, salinity, turbidity and chl a enrichment. Bio-physical coupling along fronts can lead to the development of pelagic biodiversity hotspots. A diverse range of marine vertebrates have been shown to associate with fronts, using them as foraging and migration habitats. Elucidation of the ecological significance of fronts generates a better understanding of marine ecosystem functioning, conferring opportunities to improve management of anthropogenic activities in the oceans. This study presents novel insight into the oceanographic drivers of habitat use in a population of marine turtles characterised by an oceanic-neritic foraging dichotomy. Using satellite tracking data from adult female loggerhead turtles nesting at Cape Verde (n = 12), we test the hypothesis that oceanic-foraging loggerheads associate with mesocale (10s – to 100s of km) thermal fronts. We use high-resolution (1 km) composite front mapping to characterise frontal activity in the Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem (LME) over 2 temporal scales: (1) seasonal front frequency and (2) 7-day front metrics. Our use-availability analysis indicates that oceanic loggerheads show a preference for the highly productive upwelling region between Cape Verde and mainland Africa, an area of intense frontal activity. Within the upwelling region, turtles appear to forage epipelagically around mesoscale thermal fronts, exploiting profitable foraging opportunities resulting from physical aggregation of prey.

Detection and impacts of leakage from sub-seafloor deep geological carbon dioxide storage

Fossil fuel power generation and other industrial emissions of carbon dioxide are a threat to global climate1, yet many economies will remain reliant on these technologies for several decades2. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) in deep geological formations provides an effective option to remove these emissions from the climate system3. In many regions storage reservoirs are located offshore4, 5, over a kilometre or more below societally important shelf seas6. Therefore, concerns about the possibility of leakage7, 8 and potential environmental impacts, along with economics, have contributed to delaying development of operational CCS. Here we investigate the detectability and environmental impact of leakage from a controlled sub-seabed release of CO2. We show that the biological impact and footprint of this small leak analogue (<1 tonne CO2 d−1) is confined to a few tens of metres. Migration of CO2 through the shallow seabed is influenced by near-surface sediment structure, and by dissolution and re-precipitation of calcium carbonate naturally present in sediments. Results reported here advance the understanding of environmental sensitivity to leakage and identify appropriate monitoring strategies for full-scale carbon storage operations.

Modelling large-scale CO2 leakages in the North Sea

A three dimensional hydrodynamic model with a coupled carbonate speciation sub-model is used to simulate large additions of CO2into the North Sea, representing leakages at potential carbon sequestration sites. A range of leakage scenarios are conducted at two distinct release sites, allowing an analysis of the seasonal, inter-annual and spatial variability of impacts to the marine ecosystem. Seasonally stratified regions are shown to be more vulnerable to CO2release during the summer as the added CO2remains trapped beneath the thermocline, preventing outgasing to the atmosphere. On average, CO2 injected into the northern North Sea is shown to reside within the water column twice as long as an equivalent addition in the southern North Sea before reaching the atmosphere. Short-term leakages of 5000 tonnes CO2over a single day result in substantial acidification at the release sites (up to -1.92 pH units), with significant perturbations (greater than 0.1 pH units) generally confined to a 10 km radius. Long-term CO2leakages sustained for a year may result in extensive plumes of acidified seawater, carried by major advective pathways. Whilst such scenarios could be harmful to marine biota over confined spatial scales, continued unmitigated CO2emissions from fossil fuels are predicted to result in greater and more long-lived perturbations to the carbonate system over the next few decades.

Do oceanic loggerhead turtles Caretta caretta associate with oceanographic fronts? Evidence from the Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem

ABSTRACT: Oceanographic fronts are physical interfaces between water masses that differ in properties such as temperature, salinity, turbidity and chl a enrichment. Bio-physical coupling along fronts can lead to the development of pelagic biodiversity hotspots. A diverse range of marine vertebrates have been shown to associate with fronts, using them as foraging and migration habitats. Elucidation of the ecological significance of fronts generates a better understanding of marine ecosystem functioning, conferring opportunities to improve management of anthropogenic activities in the oceans. This study presents novel insight into the oceanographic drivers of habitat use in a population of marine turtles characterised by an oceanic-neritic foraging dichotomy. Using satellite tracking data from adult female loggerhead turtles nesting at Cape Verde (n = 12), we test the hypothesis that oceanic-foraging loggerheads associate with mesocale (10s – to 100s of km) thermal fronts. We use high-resolution (1 km) composite front mapping to characterise frontal activity in the Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem (LME) over 2 temporal scales: (1) seasonal front frequency and (2) 7-day front metrics. Our use-availability analysis indicates that oceanic loggerheads show a preference for the highly productive upwelling region between Cape Verde and mainland Africa, an area of intense frontal activity. Within the upwelling region, turtles appear to forage epipelagically around mesoscale thermal fronts, exploiting profitable foraging opportunities resulting from physical aggregation of prey.

Hierarchical random walks in trace fossils and the origin of optimal search behavior

Efficient searching is crucial for timely location of food and other resources. Recent studies show diverse living animals employ a theoretically optimal scale-free random search for sparse resources known as a Lévy walk, but little is known of the origins and evolution of foraging behaviour and the search strategies of extinct organisms. Here we show using simulations of self-avoiding trace fossil trails that randomly introduced strophotaxis (U-turns) – initiated by obstructions such as ¬¬¬self-trail avoidance or innate cueing – leads to random looping patterns with clustering across increasing scales that is consistent with the presence of Lévy walks. This predicts optimal Lévy searches can emerge from simple behaviours observed in fossil trails. We then analysed fossilized trails of benthic marine organisms using a novel path analysis technique and find the first evidence of Lévy-like search strategies in extinct animals. Our results show that simple search behaviours of extinct animals in heterogeneous environments give rise to hierarchically nested Brownian walk clusters that converge to optimal Lévy patterns. Primary productivity collapse and large-scale food scarcity characterising mass extinctions evident in the fossil record may have triggered adaptation of optimal Lévy-like searches. The findings suggest Lévy-like behaviour has been employed by foragers since at least the Eocene but may have a more ancient origin, which could explain recent widespread observations of such patterns among modern taxa.

Global carbon budget 2014

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S-OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004-2013), E-FF was 8.9 +/- 0.4 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.3 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 2.9 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1). For year 2013 alone, E-FF grew to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, E-LUC was 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 5.4 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 2.5 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in E-FF and smaller and opposite changes between S-OCEAN and S-LAND compared to the past decade (2004-2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 +/- 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that E-FF will increase by 2.5% (1.3-3.5 %) to 10.1 +/- 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 +/- 2.2 GtCO(2) yr(-1)), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of E-FF and assumed constant E-LUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 +/- 55 GtC (2000 +/- 200 GtCO(2)) for 1870-2014, about 75% from E-FF and 25% from E-LUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quere et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).