Extreme events and ecological forecasting

Almost all extreme events lasting less than several weeks that significantly impact ecosystems are weather related. This review examines the response of estuarine systems to intense short-term perturbations caused by major weather events such as hurricanes. Current knowledge concerning these effects is limited to relatively few studies where hurricanes and storms impacted estuaries with established environmental monitoring programs. Freshwater inputs associated with these storms were found to initially result in increased primary productivity. When hydrographic conditions are favorable, bacterial consumption of organic matter produced by the phytoplankton blooms and deposited during the initial runoff event can contribute to significant oxygen deficits during subsequent warmer periods. Salinity stress and habitat destruction associated with freshwater inputs, as well as anoxia, adversely affect benthic populations and fish. In contrast, mobile invertebrate species such as shrimp, which have a short life cycle and the ability to migrate during the runoff event, initially benefit from the increased primary productivity and decreased abundance of fish predators. Events studied so far indicate that estuaries rebound in one to three years following major short-term perturbations. However, repeated storm events without sufficient recovery time may cause a fundamental shift in ecosystem structure (Scavia et al. 2002). This is a scenario consistent with the predicted increase in hurricanes for the east coast of the United States. More work on the response of individual species to these stresses is needed so management of commercial resources can be adjusted to allow sufficient recovery time for affected populations.

Ecological condition of coastal ocean waters along the U.S. Western Continental Shelf: 2003

Executive Summary: The western National Coastal Assessment (NCA-West) program of EPA, in conjunction with the NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS), conducted an assessment of the status of ecological condition of soft sediment habitats and overlying waters along the western U.S. continental shelf, between the target depths of 30 and 120 m, during June 2003. NCA-West and NOAA/NOS partnered with the West Coast states (Washington (WA), Oregon (OR), and California (CA)), and the Southern California Coastal Water Research Project (SCCWRP) Bight ’03 program to conduct the survey. A total of 257 stations were sampled from Cape Flattery, WA to the Mexican border using standard methods and indicators applied in previous coastal NCA projects. A key study feature was the incorporation of a stratified-random sampling design with stations stratified by state and National Marine Sanctuary (NMS) status. Each of the three states was represented by at least 50 random stations. There also were a total of 84 random stations located within NOAA’s five NMSs along the West Coast including the Olympic Coast NMS (OCNMS), Cordell Bank NMS (CBNMS), Gulf of Farallones NMS (GFNMS), Monterey Bay NMS (MBNMS), and Channel Islands NMS (CINMS). Collection of flatfish via hook-and-line for fish-tissue contaminant analysis was successful at 50 EMAP/NCA-West stations. Through a collaboration developed with the FRAM Division of the Northwest Fisheries Science Center, fish from an additional 63 stations in the same region and depth range were also analyzed for fish-tissue contaminants. Bottom depth throughout the region ranged from 28 m to 125 m for most stations. Two slightly deeper stations from the Southern California Bight (SCB) (131, 134 m) were included in the data set. About 44% of the survey area had sediments composed of sands (< 20% silt-clay), about 47% was composed of intermediate muddy sands (20-80% silt-clay), and about 9% was composed of muds (> 80% silt-clay). The majority of the survey area (97%) had relatively low percent total organic carbon (TOC) levels of < 2%, while a small portion (< 1%) had high TOC levels (> 5%), in a range potentially harmful to benthic fauna. Salinity of surface waters for 92% of the survey area were > 31 psu, with most stations < 31 psu associated with the Columbia River plume. Bottom salinities ranged only between 31.6 and 34.4 psu. There was virtually no difference in mean bottom salinities among states or between NMS and non-NMS stations. Temperatures of surface water (range 8.5 -19.9 °C) and bottom water (range 5.8 -14.7 °C) averaged several degrees higher in CA in comparison to WA and OR. The Δσt index of watercolumn stratification indicated that about 31% of the survey area had strong vertical stratification of the water column. The index was greatest for waters off WA and lowest for CA waters. Only about 2.6 % of the survey area had surface dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations ≤ 4.8 mg/L, and there were no values below the lower threshold (2.3 mg/L) considered harmful to the survival and growth of marine animals. Surface DO concentrations were higher in WA and OR waters than in CA, and higher in the OC NMS than in the CA sanctuaries. An estimated 94.3% of the area had bottom-water DO concentrations ≤ 4.8 mg/L and 6.6% had concentrations ≤ 2.3 mg/L. The high prevalence of DO from 2.3 to 4.8 mg/L (85% of survey area) is believed to be associated with the upwelling of naturally low DO water across the West Coast shelf. Mean TSS and transmissivity in surface waters (excluding OR due to sample problems) were slightly higher and lower, respectively, for stations in WA than for those in CA. There was little difference in mean TSS or transmissivity between NMS and non-NMS locations. Mean transmissivity in bottom waters, though higher in comparison to surface waters, showed little difference among geographic regions or between NMS and non-NMS locations. Concentrations of nitrate + nitrite, ammonium, total dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and orthophosphate (P) in surface waters tended to be highest in CA compared to WA and OR, and higher in the CA NMS stations compared to CA non-sanctuary stations. Measurements of silicate in surface waters were limited to WA and CA (exclusive of the SCB) and showed that concentrations were similar between the two states and approximately twice as high in CA sanctuaries compared to OCNMS or nonsanctuary locations in either state. The elevated nutrient concentrations observed at CA NMS stations are consistent with the presence of strong upwelling at these sites at the time of sampling. Approximately 93% of the area had DIN/P values ≤ 16, indicative of nitrogen limitation. Mean DIN/P ratios were similar among the three states, although the mean for the OCNMS was less than half that of the CA sanctuaries or nonsanctuary locations. Concentrations of chlorophyll a in surface waters ranged from 0 to 28 μg L-1, with 50% of the area having values < 3.9 μg L-1 and 10% having values > 14.5 μg L-1. The mean concentration of chlorophyll a for CA was less than half that of WA and OR locations, and concentrations were lowest in non-sanctuary sites in CA and highest at the OCNMS. Shelf sediments throughout the survey area were relatively uncontaminated with the exception of a group of stations within the SCB. Overall, about 99% of the total survey area was rated in good condition (<5 chemicals measured above corresponding effect range low (ERL) concentrations). Only the pesticides 4,4′-DDE and total DDT exceeded corresponding effect range-median (ERM) values, all at stations in CA near Los Angeles. Ten other contaminants including seven metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ag, Zn), 2-methylnaphthalene, low molecular weight PAHs, and total PCBs exceeded corresponding ERLs. The most prevalent in terms of area were chromium (31%), arsenic (8%), 2-methylnaphthalene (6%), cadmium (5%), and mercury (4%). The chromium contamination may be related to natural background sources common to the region. The 2-methylnaphthalene exceedances were conspicuously grouped around the CINMS. The mercury exceedances were all at non-sanctuary sites in CA, particularly in the Los Angeles area. Concentrations of cadmium in fish tissues exceeded the lower end of EPA’s non-cancer, human-health-risk range at nine of 50 EMAP/NCA-West and nine of 60 FRAM groundfish-survey stations, including a total of seven NMS stations in CA and two in the OCNMS. The human-health guidelines for all other contaminants were only exceeded for total PCBs at one station located in WA near the mouth of the Columbia River. Benthic species richness was relatively high in these offshore assemblages, ranging from 19 to 190 taxa per 0.1-m2 grab and averaging 79 taxa/grab. The high species richness was reflected over large areas of the shelf and was nearly three times greater than levels observed in estuarine samples along the West Coast (e.g NCA-West estuarine mean of 26 taxa/grab). Mean species richness was highest off CA (94 taxa/grab) and lower in OR and WA (55 and 56 taxa/grab, respectively). Mean species richness was very similar between sanctuary vs. non-sanctuary stations for both the CA and OR/WA regions. Mean diversity index H′ was highest in CA (5.36) and lowest in WA (4.27). There were no major differences in mean H′ between sanctuary vs. nonsanctuary stations for both the CA and OR/WA regions. A total of 1,482 taxa (1,108 to species) and 99,135 individuals were identified region-wide. Polychaetes, crustaceans and molluscs were the dominant taxa, both by percent abundance (59%, 17%, 12% respectively) and percent species (44%, 25%, 17%, respectively). There were no major differences in the percent composition of benthic communities among states or between NMSs and corresponding non-sanctuary sites. Densities averaged 3,788 m-2, about 30% of the average density for West Coast estuaries. Mean density of benthic fauna in the present offshore survey, averaged by state, was highest in CA (4,351 m-2) and lowest in OR (2,310 m-2). Mean densities were slightly higher at NMS stations vs. non-sanctuary stations for both the CA and OR/WA regions. The 10 most abundant taxa were the polychaetes Mediomastus spp., Magelona longicornis, Spiophanes berkeleyorum, Spiophanes bombyx, Spiophanes duplex, and Prionospio jubata; the bivalve Axinopsida serricata, the ophiuroid Amphiodia urtica, the decapod Pinnixa occidentalis, and the ostracod Euphilomedes carcharodonta. Mediomastus spp. and A. serricata were the two most abundant taxa overall. Although many of these taxa have broad geographic distributions throughout the region, the same species were not ranked among the 10 most abundant taxa consistently across states. The closest similarities among states were between OR and WA. At least half of the 10 most abundant taxa in NMSs were also dominant in corresponding nonsanctuary waters. Many of the abundant benthic species have wide latitudinal distributions along the West Coast shelf, with some species ranging from southern CA into the Gulf of Alaska or even the Aleutians. Of the 39 taxa on the list of 50 most abundant taxa that could be identified to species level, 85% have been reported at least once from estuaries of CA, OR, or WA exclusive of Puget Sound. Such broad latitudinal and estuarine distributions are suggestive of wide habitat tolerances. Thirteen (1.2%) of the 1,108 identified species are nonindigenous, with another 121 species classified as cryptogenic (of uncertain origin), and 208 species unclassified with respect to potential invasiveness. Despite uncertainties of classification, the number and densities of nonindigenous species appear to be much lower on the shelf than in the estuarine ecosystems of the Pacific Coast. Spionid polychaetes and the ampharetid polychaete Anobothrus gracilis were a major component of the nonindigenous species collected on the shelf. NOAA’s five NMSs along the West Coast of the U.S. appeared to be in good ecological condition, based on the measured indicators, with no evidence of major anthropogenic impacts or unusual environmental qualities compared to nearby nonsanctuary waters. Benthic communities in sanctuaries resembled those in corresponding non-sanctuary waters, with similarly high levels of species richness and diversity and low incidence of nonindigenous species. Most oceanographic features were also similar between sanctuary and non-sanctuary locations. Exceptions (e.g., higher concentrations of some nutrients in sanctuaries along the CA coast) appeared to be attributable to natural upwelling events in the area at the time of sampling. In addition, sediments within the sanctuaries were relatively uncontaminated, with none of the samples having any measured chemical in excess of ERM values. The ERL value for chromium was exceeded in sediments at the OCNMS, but at a much lower percentage of stations (four of 30) compared to WA and OR non-sanctuary areas (31 of 70 stations). ERL values were exceeded for arsenic, cadmium, chromium, 2- methylnaphthalene, low molecular weight PAHs, total DDT, and 4,4′-DDE at multiple sites within the CINMS. However, cases where total DDT, 4,4′-DDE, and chromium exceeded the ERL values were notably less prevalent at CINMS than in non-sanctuary waters of CA. In contrast, 2-methylnaphthalene above the ERL was much more prevalent in sediments at the CINMS compared to non-sanctuary waters off the coast of CA. While there are natural background sources of PAHs from oil seeps throughout the SCB, this does not explain the higher incidence of 2-methylnaphthalene contamination around CINMS. Two stations in CINMS also had levels of TOC (> 5%) potentially harmful to benthic fauna, though none of these sites exhibited symptoms of impaired benthic condition. This study showed no major evidence of extensive biological impacts linked to measured stressors. There were only two stations, both in CA, where low numbers of benthic species, diversity, or total faunal abundance co-occurred with high sediment contamination or low DO in bottom water. Such general lack of concordance suggests that these offshore waters are currently in good condition, with the lower-end values of the various biological attributes representing parts of a normal reference range controlled by natural factors. Results of multiple linear regression, performed using full model procedures to test for effects of combined abiotic environmental factors, suggested that latitude and depth had significant influences on benthic variables regionwide. Latitude had a significant inverse influence on all three of the above benthic variables, i.e. with values increasing as latitude decreased (p< 0.01), while depth had a significant direct influence on diversity (p < 0.001) and inverse effect on density (p <0.01). None of these variables varied significantly in relation to sediment % fines (at p< 0.1), although in general there was a tendency for muddier sediments (higher % fines) to have lower species richness and diversity and higher densities than coarser sediments. Alternatively, it is possible that for some of these sites the lower values of benthic variables reflect symptoms of disturbance induced by other unmeasured stressors. The indicators in this study included measures of stressors (e.g., chemical contaminants, eutrophication) that are often associated with adverse biological impacts in shallower estuarine and inland ecosystems. However, there may be other sources of humaninduced stress in these offshore systems (e.g., bottom trawling) that pose greater risks to ambient living resources and which have not been captured. Future monitoring efforts in these offshore areas should include indicators of such alternative sources of disturbance. (137pp.) (PDF contains 167 pages)

Spatial distribution of Chlorpyrifos and Endosulfan in USA coastal waters and the Great Lakes

Between 1994 and 1997, 258 tissue and 178 sediment samples were analyzed for chlorpyrifos throughout the coastal United States and the Great Lakes. Subsequently, 95 of the 1997 tissue samples were reanalyzed for endosulfan. Tissue chlorpyrifos concentrations, which exceeded the 90th percentile, were found in coastal regions known to have high agricultural use rates but also strongly correlated with sites near high population. The highest concentrations of endosulfans in contrast, were generally limited to agricultural regions of the country. Detections of chlorpyrifos at several Alaskan sites suggest an atmospheric transport mechanism. Many Great Lakes sites had chlorpyrifos tissue concentrations above the 90th percentile which decreased with increasing distance from the Corn Belt region (Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin) where most agriculturally applied chlorpyrifos is used. Correlation analysis suggests that fluvial discharge is the primary transport pathway on the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts for chlorpyrifos but not necessarily for endosulfans. (PDF contains 28 pages)

Guidance for benthic habitat mapping: an aerial photographic approach

This document, Guidance for Benthic Habitat Mapping: An Aerial Photographic Approach, describes proven technology that can be applied in an operational manner by state-level scientists and resource managers. This information is based on the experience gained by NOAA Coastal Services Center staff and state-level cooperators in the production of a series of benthic habitat data sets in Delaware, Florida, Maine, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, the Virgin Islands, and Washington, as well as during Center-sponsored workshops on coral remote sensing and seagrass and aquatic habitat assessment. (PDF contains 39 pages) The original benthic habitat document, NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP): Guidance for Regional Implementation (Dobson et al.), was published by the Department of Commerce in 1995. That document summarized procedures that were to be used by scientists throughout the United States to develop consistent and reliable coastal land cover and benthic habitat information. Advances in technology and new methodologies for generating these data created the need for this updated report, which builds upon the foundation of its predecessor.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Good Morning, America! The explosive U.S. awakening to the need for adaptation

Since the early years of the 21st century, and in particular since 2007, the U.S. has been awakening rapidly to the fact that climate change is underway and that even if stringent efforts are undertaken to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, adaptation to the unavoidable impacts from the existing commitment to climate change is still needed and needs to be begun now. This report provides an historical overview of the public, political, and scientific concern with adaptation in the United States. It begins by briefly distinguishing ongoing, historical adaptation to environmental circumstances from deliberate adaptation to human‐induced climate change. It then describes the shift from the early concerns with climate change and adaptation to the more recent awakening to the need for a comprehensive approach to managing the risks from climate change. Ranging from the treatment of the topic in the news media to the drafting of bills in Congress, to state and local government activities with considerable engagement of NGOs, scientists and consultants, it is apparent that adaptation has finally, and explosively, emerged on the political agenda as a legitimate and needed subject for debate. At the same time, the current policy rush is not underlain by widespread public engagement and mobilization nor does it rest on a solid research foundation. Funding for vulnerability and adaptation research, establishing adequate decision support institutions, as well as the building of the necessary capacity in science, the consulting world, and in government agencies, lags far behind the need. (PDF contains 42 pages)

Biology and Management of the American Shad and Status of the Fisheries, Atlantic Coast of the United States, 1960

This paper summarizes current information on the American shad, Alosa sapidissima, and describes the species and its fishery. Emphasis is placed on (1) life history of the fish, (2) condition of the fishery by State and water areas in 1960 compared to 1896 when the last comprehensive description was made, (3) factors responsible for decline in abundance, and (4) management measures. The shad fishery has changed little over the past three-quarters of a century, except in magnitude of yield. Types of shad-fishing gear have remained relatively unchanged, but many improvements have been made in fishing techniques, mostly to achieve economy. In 1896 the estimated catch was more than 50 million pounds. New Jersey ranked first in production with about 14 million pounds, and Virginia second with 11 million pounds. In 1960 the estimated catch was slightly more than 8 million pounds. Maryland ranked first in production with slightly more than 1.5 million pounds, Virginia second with slightly less than 1.4 million pounds, and North Carolina third with about 1.3 million pounds. Biological and economic factors blamed for the decline in shad abundance, such as physical changes in the environment, construction of dams, pollution, over-fishing, and natural cycles of abundance, are discussed. Also discussed are methods used for the rehabilitation and management of the fishery, such as artificial propagation, installation of fish-passage facilities at impoundments, and fishing regulations. With our present knowledge, we can manage individual shad populations; but, we probably cannot restore the shad to its former peak of abundance.

Growth dynamics of the spinner shark (Carcharhinus brevipinna) off the United States southeast and Gulf of Mexico coasts: a comparison of methods

The age and growth dynamics of the spinner shark (Carcharhinus brevipinna) in the northwest Atlantic Ocean off the southeast United States and in the Gulf of Mexico were examined and four growth models were used to examine variation in the ability to fit size-at-age data. The von Bertalanffy growth model, an alternative equation of the von Bertalanffy growth model with a size-at-birth intercept, the Gompertz growth model, and a logistic model were fitted to sex-specific observed size-at-age data. Considering the statistical criteria (e.g., lowest mean square error [MSE], high coefficient-of-determination, and greatest level of significance) we desired for this study, the logistic model provided the best overall fit to the size-at-age data, whereas the von Bertalanffy growth model gave the worst. For “biological validity,” the von Bertalanffy model for female sharks provided estimates similar to those reported in other studies. However, the von Bertalanffy model was deemed inappropriate for describing the growth of male spinner sharks because estimates of theoretical maximum size (L∞) indicated a size much larger than that observed in the field. However, the growth coefficient (k= 0.14/yr) from the Gompertz model provided an estimate most similar to that reported for other large coastal species. The analysis of growth for spinner shark in the present study demonstrates the importance of fitting alternative models when standard models fit the data poorly or when growth estimates do not appear to be realistic.

Cross-shelf and seasonal variation in larval fish assemblages on the southeast United States continental shelf off the coast of Georgia

Seasonal and cross-shelf patterns were investigated in larval fish assemblages on the continental shelf off the coast of Georgia. The influence of environmental factors on larval distributions also was examined, and larval transport processes on the shelf were considered. Ichthyoplankton and environmental data were collected approximately every other month from spring 2000 to winter 2002. Ten stations were repeatedly sampled along a 110-km cross-shelf transect, including four stations in the vicinity of Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary. Correspondence analysis (CA) on untransformed community data identified two seasonal (warm weather [spring, summer, and fall] and winter) and three cross-shelf larval assemblages (inner-, mid-, and outer-shelf ). Five environmental factors (temperature, salinity, density, depth of the water column, and stratification) were related to larval cross-shelf distribution. Specifically, increased water column stratification was associated with the outer-shelf assemblage in spring, summer, and fall. The inner shelf assemblage was associated with generally lower temperatures and lower salinities in the spring and summer and higher salinities in the winter. The three cross-shelf regions indicated by the three assemblages coincided with the location of three primary water masses on the shelf. However, taxa occurring together within an assemblage were transported to different parts of the shelf; thus, transport across the continental shelf off the coast of Georgia cannot be explained solely by twodimensional physical factors.

The Status of the United States Population of Night Shark, Carcharhinus signatus

Night sharks, Carcharhinus signatus, are an oceanic species generally occurring in outer continental shelf waters in the western North Atlantic Ocean including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Although not targeted, night sharks make up a segment of the shark bycatch in the pelagic longline fishery. Historically, night sharks comprised a significant proportion of the artisanal Cuban shark fishery but today they are rarely caught. Although information from some fisheries has shown a decline in catches of night sharks, it is unclear whether this decline is due to changes in fishing tactics, market, or species identification. Despite the uncertainty in the decline, the night shark is currently listed as a species of concern due to alleged declines in abundance resulting from fishing effort, i.e. overutilization. To assess their relevance to the species of concern list, we collated available information on the night shark to provide an analysis of its status. Night shark landings were likely both over- and under-reported and thus probably did not reflect all commercial and recreational catches, and overall they have limited relevance to the current status of the species. Average size information has not changed considerably since the 1980’s based on information from the pelagic longline fishery when corrected for gear bias. Analysis of biological information indicates night sharks have intrinsic rates of increase (r) about 10% yr–1 and have moderate rebound potential and an intermediate generation time compared to other sharks. An analysis of trends in relative abundance from four data sources gave conflicting results, with one series in decline, two series increasing, and one series relatively flat. Based on the analysis of all currently available information, we believe the night shark does not qualify as a species of concern but should be retained on the prohibited species list as a precautionary approach to management until a more comprehensive stock assessment can be conducted.

Annual stream flow variability over the western United States [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The variability of mean annual streamflow over the western United States is described and related to indices of large scale atmospheric circulation over the Pacific Ocean and western U.S. Principal component analysis reveal [sic] four statistically significant modes of streamflow variability across the region.

A preliminary description of climatology in the western United States

We describe the climatology of the western United States as seen from two 1-month perspectives, January and July 1988, of the National Meteorological Center large-scale global analysis, the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and various station observation sets. An advantage of the NMC analysis and the RAMS is that they provide a continuous field interpolation of the meteorological variables. It is more difficult to describe spatial meteorological fields from the available sparse station networks. We assess accuracy of the NMC analysis and RAMS by finding differences between the analysis, the model, and station values at the stations. From these comparisons, we find that RAMS has much more well-developed mesoscale circulation, especially in the surface wind field. However, RAMS climatological and transient fields do not appear to be substantially closer than the larger-scale analysis to the station observations. The RAMS model does provide other meteorological variables, such as precipitation, which are not readily available from the archives of the global analysis. Thus, RAMS could, at the least, be a tool to augment the NMC large-scale analyses.

Protocols for conducting dolphin capture-release health assessment studies

Marine mammals, such as dolphins, can serve as key indicator species in coastal areas by reflecting the effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors. As such they are often considered sentinels of environmental and ecosystem health (Bossart 2006; Wells et al. 2004; Fair and Becker 2000). The bottlenose dolphin is an apex predator and a key component of many estuarine environments in the southeastern United States (Woodward-Clyde Consultants 1994; SCDNR 2005). Health assessments of dolphins are especially critical in areas where populations are depleted, show signs of epidemic disease and/or high mortality and/or where habitat is being altered or impacted by human activities. Recent assessments of environmental conditions in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida (IRL) and the estuarine waters surrounding Charleston, South Carolina (CHS) highlight the need for studies of the health of local bottlenose dolphins. While the condition of southeastern estuaries was rated as fair in the National Coastal Condition Report (U.S. EPA 2001), it was noted that the IRL was characterized by poorer than expected benthic communities, significant sediment toxicity and increased nutrient concentrations. Similarly, portions of the CHS estuary have sediment concentrations of aliphatic aromatic hydrocarbons, select inorganic metals, and some persistent pesticides far in excess of reported bioeffect levels (Hyland et al. 1998). Long-term trends in water quality monitoring and recent scientific research suggest that waste load assimilation, non-point source runoff impacts, contaminated sediments, and toxic pollutants are key issues in the CHS estuary system. Several ‘hot spots’ with high levels of heavy metals and organic compounds have been identified (Van Dolah et al. 2004). High concentrations of anthropogenic trace metals, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB’s) and pesticides have been found in the sediments of Charleston Harbor, as well as the Ashley and Cooper Rivers (Long et al. 1998). Two superfund sites are located within the CHS estuary and the key contaminants of concern associated with these sites are: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), lead, chromium, copper, arsenic, zinc and dioxin. Concerns related to the overall health of IRL dolphins and dermatologic disease observed in many dolphins in the area (Bossart et al. 2003) initiated an investigation of potential factors which may have impacted dolphin health. From May-August 2001, 35 bottlenose dolphins died in the IRL during an unusual mortality event (MMC 2003). Many of these dolphins were diagnosed with a variety of skin lesions including proliferative ulcerative dermatitis due to protozoa and fungi, dolphin pox and a vesicular dermatopathy of unknown etiology (Bossart et al. 2003). Multiple species from fish to dolphins in the IRL system have exhibited skin lesions of various known and unknown etiologies (Kane et al. 2000; Bossart et al. 2003; Reif et al. 2006). On-going photo-identification (photo-ID) studies have documented skin diseases in IRL dolphins (Mazzoil et al. 2005). In addition, up to 70% of green sea turtles in the IRL exhibit fibropapillomas, with the highest rates of occurrence being seen in turtles from the southern IRL (Hirama 2001).

Distribution and potential bioeffects of atrazine in coastal waters

Estuaries provide critical nursery habitat for many commercially and recreationally important fish and shellfish species. These productive, diverse ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to pollution because they serve as repositories for non–point-source contaminants from upland sources, such as pesticide runoff. Atrazine, among the most widely used pesticides in the United States, has also been one of the most extensively studied. There has not, however, been a specific assessment of atrazine in marine and estuarine ecosystems. This document characterizes the presence and transformation of atrazine in coastal waters, and the effects of atrazine on marine organisms. Review of marine and estuarine monitoring data indicate that atrazine is chronically present in U.S. coastal waters at relatively low concentrations. The concentrations detected have typically been below acute biological effects levels, and below the U.S. EPA proposed water quality criteria for atrazine. While direct risk of atrazine impacts are low, uncertainty remains regarding the effects of long-term low levels of atrazine in mixture with other contaminants. It is recommended that best management practices, such as the use of vegetative buffers and public education about pesticide use, be encouraged in the coastal zone to minimize runoff of atrazine into marine and estuarine waters.