Optimal estimation of sea surface temperature from split-window observations

Optimal estimation (OE) improves sea surface temperature (SST) estimated from satellite infrared imagery in the “split-window”, in comparison to SST retrieved using the usual multi-channel (MCSST) or non-linear (NLSST) estimators. This is demonstrated using three months of observations of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the first Meteorological Operational satellite (Metop-A), matched in time and space to drifter SSTs collected on the global telecommunications system. There are 32,175 matches. The prior for the OE is forecast atmospheric fields from the Météo-France global numerical weather prediction system (ARPEGE), the forward model is RTTOV8.7, and a reduced state vector comprising SST and total column water vapour (TCWV) is used. Operational NLSST coefficients give mean and standard deviation (SD) of the difference between satellite and drifter SSTs of 0.00 and 0.72 K. The “best possible” NLSST and MCSST coefficients, empirically regressed on the data themselves, give zero mean difference and SDs of 0.66 K and 0.73 K respectively. Significant contributions to the global SD arise from regional systematic errors (biases) of several tenths of kelvin in the NLSST. With no bias corrections to either prior fields or forward model, the SSTs retrieved by OE minus drifter SSTs have mean and SD of − 0.16 and 0.49 K respectively. The reduction in SD below the “best possible” regression results shows that OE deals with structural limitations of the NLSST and MCSST algorithms. Using simple empirical bias corrections to improve the OE, retrieved minus drifter SSTs are obtained with mean and SD of − 0.06 and 0.44 K respectively. Regional biases are greatly reduced, such that the absolute bias is less than 0.1 K in 61% of 10°-latitude by 30°-longitude cells. OE also allows a statistic of the agreement between modelled and measured brightness temperatures to be calculated. We show that this measure is more efficient than the current system of confidence levels at identifying reliable retrievals, and that the best 75% of satellite SSTs by this measure have negligible bias and retrieval error of order 0.25 K.

A cross-calibration of GMS-5 thermal channels against ATSR-2

Motivated by the importance to weather and climate of the Indo-Pacific seas, we present a new calibration of the Visible Infrared Spin-Scan Radiometer (VISSR) on the geostationary meteorological satellite, GMS-5. VISSR imagery has significant potential for exploring the dynamics of the ocean and air–sea interactions in this poorly characterized region, by virtue of the VISSR's surface temperature retrieval capability and hourly sampling. However, the calibration of the thermal imagery supplied by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) is inconsistent with the spectral characteristics of the channels, and published details of the JMA calibration procedure are scant. We use the well-characterized Along-Track Scanning Radiometer 2 (ATSR-2) as a reference, and determine calibration corrections for GMS-5 VISSR. We obtain more credible VISSR brightness temperatures and demonstrate sea surface temperature (SST) retrieval that validates well against in situ measurements (bias ∼0.3 and scatter ∼0.4 K). Comparison with a widely used sea surface temperature analysis shows that the GMS-5 VISSR SST fields capture important spatial structure, absent in the analysis.

Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?

We consider forecasting with factors, variables and both, modeling in-sample using Autometrics so all principal components and variables can be included jointly, while tackling multiple breaks by impulse-indicator saturation. A forecast-error taxonomy for factor models highlights the impacts of location shifts on forecast-error biases. Forecasting US GDP over 1-, 4- and 8-step horizons using the dataset from Stock and Watson (2009) updated to 2011:2 shows factor models are more useful for nowcasting or short-term forecasting, but their relative performance declines as the forecast horizon increases. Forecasts for GDP levels highlight the need for robust strategies, such as intercept corrections or differencing, when location shifts occur as in the recent financial crisis.

Electronic charge transfer between ceria surfaces and gold adatoms: a GGA+U investigation

We use density functional theory calculations with Hubbard corrections (DFT+U) to investigate electronic aspects of the interaction between ceria surfaces and gold atoms. Our results show that Au adatoms at the (111) surface of ceria can adopt Au0, Au+ or Au� electronic configurations depending on the adsorption site. The strongest adsorption sites are on top of the surface oxygen and in a bridge position between two surface oxygen atoms, and in both cases charge transfer from the gold atom to one of the Ce cations at the surface is involved. Adsorption at other sites, including the hollow sites of the surface, and an O–Ce bridging site, is weaker and does not involve charge transfer. Adsorption at an oxygen vacancy site is very strong and involves the formation of an Au� anion. We argue that the ability of gold atoms to stabilise oxygen vacancies at the ceria surface by moving into the vacancy site and attracting the excess electrons of the defect could be responsible for the enhanced reducibility of ceria surfaces in the presence of gold. Finally, we rationalise the differences in charge transfer behaviour from site to site in terms of the electrostatic potential at the surface and the coordination of the species.

An assessment of observed vertical flux divergence in long-term eddy-covariance measurements over two Midwestern forest ecosystems

Vertical divergence of CO2 fluxes is observed over two Midwestern AmeriFlux forest sites. The differences in ensemble averaged hourly CO2 fluxes measured at two heights above canopy are relatively small (0.2–0.5 μmol m−2 s−1), but they are the major contributors to differences (76–256 g C m−2 or 41.8–50.6%) in estimated annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in 2001. A friction velocity criterion is used in these estimates but mean flow advection is not accounted for. This study examines the effects of coordinate rotation, averaging time period, sampling frequency and co-spectral correction on CO2 fluxes measured at a single height, and on vertical flux differences measured between two heights. Both the offset in measured vertical velocity and the downflow/upflow caused by supporting tower structures in upwind directions lead to systematic over- or under-estimates of fluxes measured at a single height. An offset of 1 cm s−1 and an upflow/downflow of 1° lead to 1% and 5.6% differences in momentum fluxes and nighttime sensible heat and CO2 fluxes, respectively, but only 0.5% and 2.8% differences in daytime sensible heat and CO2 fluxes. The sign and magnitude of both offset and upflow/downflow angle vary between sonic anemometers at two measurement heights. This introduces a systematic and large bias in vertical flux differences if these effects are not corrected in the coordinate rotation. A 1 h averaging time period is shown to be appropriate for the two sites. In the daytime, the absolute magnitudes of co-spectra decrease with height in the natural frequencies of 0.02–0.1 Hz but increase in the lower frequencies (<0.01 Hz). Thus, air motions in these two frequency ranges counteract each other in determining vertical flux differences, whose magnitude and sign vary with averaging time period. At night, co-spectral densities of CO2 are more positive at the higher levels of both sites in the frequency range of 0.03–0.4 Hz and this vertical increase is also shown at most frequencies lower than 0.03 Hz. Differences in co-spectral corrections at the two heights lead to a positive shift in vertical CO2 flux differences throughout the day at both sites. At night, the vertical CO2 flux differences between two measurement heights are 20–30% and 40–60% of co-spectral corrected CO2 fluxes measured at the lower levels of the two sites, respectively. Vertical differences of CO2 flux are relatively small in the daytime. Vertical differences in estimated mean vertical advection of CO2 between the two measurement heights generally do not improve the closure of the 1D (vertical) CO2 budget in the air layer between the two measurement heights. This may imply the significance of horizontal advection. However, a reliable assessment of mean advection contributions in annual NEE estimate at these two AmeriFlux sites is currently an unsolved problem.

Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July-September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: a case study.

We present a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning in the Upper Huai catchment (ca. 30 672 km2). TIGGE ensemble forecasts from 6 meteorological centres with 10-day lead time were extracted and disaggregated to drive the Xinanjiang model to forecast discharges for flood events in July-September 2008. The results demonstrated satisfactory flood forecasting skills with clear signals of floods up to 10 days in advance. The forecasts occasionally show discrepancies both in time and space. Forecasting quality could potentially be improved by using temporal and spatial corrections of the forecasted precipitation.

The role of air–sea coupling in the simulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation in the Hadley Centre model

The role of air–sea coupling in the simulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is explored using two configurations of the Hadley Centre atmospheric model (AGCM), GA3.0, which differ only in F, a parameter controlling convective entrainment and detrainment. Increasing F considerably improves deficient MJO-like variability in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, but variability in and propagation through the Maritime Continent remains weak. By coupling GA3.0 in the tropical Indo-Pacific to a boundary-layer ocean model, KPP, and employing climatological temperature corrections, well resolved air–sea interactions are simulated with limited alterations to the mean state. At default F, when GA3.0 has a poor MJO, coupling produces a stronger MJO with some eastward propagation, although both aspects remain deficient. These results agree with previous sensitivity studies using AGCMs with poor variability. At higher F, coupling does not affect MJO amplitude but enhances propagation through the Maritime Continent, resulting in an MJO that resembles observations. A sensitivity experiment with coupling in only the Indian Ocean reverses these improvements, suggesting coupling in the Maritime Continent and West Pacific is critical for propagation. We hypothesise that for AGCMs with a poor MJO, coupling provides a “crutch” to artificially augment MJO-like activity through high-frequency SST anomalies. In related experiments, we employ the KPP framework to analyse the impact of air–sea interactions in the fully coupled GA3.0, which at default F shows a similar MJO to uncoupled GA3.0. This is due to compensating effects: an improvement from coupling and a degradation from mean-state errors. Future studies on the role of coupling should carefully separate these effects.

A critical revision of the estimation of the latent heat flux from two-wavelength scintillometry

Simultaneous scintillometer measurements at multiple wavelengths (pairing visible or infrared with millimetre or radio waves) have the potential to provide estimates of path-averaged surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat. Traditionally, the equations to deduce fluxes from measurements of the refractive index structure parameter at the two wavelengths have been formulated in terms of absolute humidity. Here, it is shown that formulation in terms of specific humidity has several advantages. Specific humidity satisfies the requirement for a conserved variable in similarity theory and inherently accounts for density effects misapportioned through the use of absolute humidity. The validity and interpretation of both formulations are assessed and the analogy with open-path infrared gas analyser density corrections is discussed. Original derivations using absolute humidity to represent the influence of water vapour are shown to misrepresent the latent heat flux. The errors in the flux, which depend on the Bowen ratio (larger for drier conditions), may be of the order of 10%. The sensible heat flux is shown to remain unchanged. It is also verified that use of a single scintillometer at optical wavelengths is essentially unaffected by these new formulations. Where it may not be possible to reprocess two-wavelength results, a density correction to the latent heat flux is proposed for scintillometry, which can be applied retrospectively to reduce the error.

Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr - Part 3: improved representation of solar cycle 11

Svalgaard (2014) has recently pointed out that the calibration of the Helsinki magnetic observatory’s H component variometer was probably in error in published data for the years 1866–1874.5 and that this makes the interdiurnal variation index based on daily means, IDV(1d), (Lockwood et al., 2013a), and the interplanetary magnetic field strength derived from it (Lockwood et al., 2013b), too low around the peak of solar cycle 11. We use data from the modern Nurmijarvi station, relatively close to the site of the original Helsinki Observatory, to confirm a 30% underestimation in this interval and hence our results are fully consistent with the correction derived by Svalgaard. We show that the best method for recalibration uses the Helsinki Ak(H) and aa indices and is accurate to ±10 %. This makes it preferable to recalibration using either the sunspot number or the diurnal range of geomagnetic activity which we find to be accurate to ±20 %. In the case of Helsinki data during cycle 11, the two recalibration methods produce very similar corrections which are here confirmed using newly digitised data from the nearby St Petersburg observatory and also using declination data from Helsinki. However, we show that the IDV index is, compared to later years, too similar to sunspot number before 1872, revealing independence of the two data series has been lost; either because the geomagnetic data used to compile IDV has been corrected using sunspot numbers, or vice versa, or both. We present corrected data sequences for both the IDV(1d) index and the reconstructed IMF (interplanetary magnetic field).We also analyse the relationship between the derived near-Earth IMF and the sunspot number and point out the relevance of the prior history of solar activity, in addition to the contemporaneous value, to estimating any “floor” value of the near-Earth interplanetary field.

Visual sensor fusion for active security in robotic industrial environments

This work presents a method of information fusion involving data captured by both a standard CCD camera and a ToF camera to be used in the detection of the proximity between a manipulator robot and a human. Both cameras are assumed to be located above the work area of an industrial robot. The fusion of colour images and time of light information makes it possible to know the 3D localization of objects with respect to a world coordinate system. At the same time this allows to know their colour information. Considering that ToF information given by the range camera contains innacuracies including distance error, border error, and pixel saturation, some corrections over the ToF information are proposed and developed to improve the results. The proposed fusion method uses the calibration parameters of both cameras to reproject 3D ToF points, expressed in a common coordinate system for both cameras and a robot arm, in 2D colour images. In addition to this, using the 3D information, the motion detection in a robot industrial environment is achieved, and the fusion of information is applied to the foreground objects previously detected. This combination of information results in a matrix that links colour and 3D information, giving the possibility of characterising the object by its colour in addition to its 3D localization. Further development of these methods will make it possible to identify objects and their position in the real world, and to use this information to prevent possible collisions between the robot and such objects.

Centennial variations in sunspot number, open solar flux and streamer belt width: 2. Comparison with the geomagnetic data

We investigate the relationship between interdiurnal variation geomagnetic activity indices, IDV and IDV(1d), corrected sunspot number, R{sub}C{\sub}, and the group sunspot number R{sub}G{\sub}. R{sub}C{\sub} uses corrections for both the “Waldmeier discontinuity”, as derived in Paper 1 [Lockwood et al., 2014c], and the “Wolf discontinuity” revealed by Leussu et al. [2013]. We show that the simple correlation of the geomagnetic indices with R{sub}C{\sub}{sup}n{\sup} or R{sub}G{\sub}{sup}n{\sup} masks a considerable solar cycle variation. Using IDV(1d) or IDV to predict or evaluate the sunspot numbers, the errors are almost halved by allowing for the fact that the relationship varies over the solar cycle. The results indicate that differences between R{sub}C{\sub} and R{sub}G{\sub} have a variety of causes and are highly unlikely to be attributable to errors in either R{sub}G{\sub} alone, as has recently been assumed. Because it is not known if R{sub}C{\sub} or R{sub}G{\sub} is a better predictor of open flux emergence before 1874, a simple sunspot number composite is suggested which, like R{sub}G{\sub}, enables modelling of the open solar flux for 1610 onwards in Paper 3, but maintains the characteristics of R{sub}C{\sub}.

Visual sensor fusion for active security in robotic industrial environments

This work presents a method of information fusion involving data captured by both a standard charge-coupled device (CCD) camera and a time-of-flight (ToF) camera to be used in the detection of the proximity between a manipulator robot and a human. Both cameras are assumed to be located above the work area of an industrial robot. The fusion of colour images and time-of-flight information makes it possible to know the 3D localization of objects with respect to a world coordinate system. At the same time, this allows to know their colour information. Considering that ToF information given by the range camera contains innacuracies including distance error, border error, and pixel saturation, some corrections over the ToF information are proposed and developed to improve the results. The proposed fusion method uses the calibration parameters of both cameras to reproject 3D ToF points, expressed in a common coordinate system for both cameras and a robot arm, in 2D colour images. In addition to this, using the 3D information, the motion detection in a robot industrial environment is achieved, and the fusion of information is applied to the foreground objects previously detected. This combination of information results in a matrix that links colour and 3D information, giving the possibility of characterising the object by its colour in addition to its 3D localisation. Further development of these methods will make it possible to identify objects and their position in the real world and to use this information to prevent possible collisions between the robot and such objects.

The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data

The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set has been generated using the same methodology as the widely used WATCH Forcing Data (WFD) by making use of the ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We discuss the specifics of how changes in the reanalysis and processing have led to improvement over the WFD. We attribute improvements in precipitation and wind speed to the latest reanalysis basis data and improved downward shortwave fluxes to the changes in the aerosol corrections. Covering 1979–2012, the WFDEI will allow more thorough comparisons of hydrological and Earth System model outputs with hydrologically and phenologically relevant satellite products than using the WFD.

MetUM-GOML: a near-globally coupled atmosphere–ocean-mixed-layer model

Well-resolved air–sea interactions are simulated in a new ocean mixed-layer, coupled configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM-GOML), comprising the MetUM coupled to the Multi-Column K Profile Parameterization ocean (MC-KPP). This is the first globally coupled system which provides a vertically resolved, high near-surface resolution ocean at comparable computational cost to running in atmosphere-only mode. As well as being computationally inexpensive, this modelling framework is adaptable– the independent MC-KPP columns can be applied selectively in space and time – and controllable – by using temperature and salinity corrections the model can be constrained to any ocean state. The framework provides a powerful research tool for process-based studies of the impact of air–sea interactions in the global climate system. MetUM simulations have been performed which separate the impact of introducing inter- annual variability in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the impact of having atmosphere–ocean feedbacks. The representation of key aspects of tropical and extratropical variability are used to assess the performance of these simulations. Coupling the MetUM to MC-KPP is shown, for example, to reduce tropical precipitation biases, improve the propagation of, and spectral power associated with, the Madden–Julian Oscillation and produce closer-to-observed patterns of springtime blocking activity over the Euro-Atlantic region.

First-principles study of the inversion thermodynamics and electronic structure of FeM2X4 (thio)spinels (M = Cr, Mn, Co, Ni; X = O, S)

FeM2X4 spinels, where M is a transition metal and X is oxygen or sulfur, are candidate materials for spin filters, one of the key devices in spintronics. We present here a computational study of the inversion thermodynamics and the electronic structure of these (thio)spinels for M = Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, using calculations based on the density functional theory with on-site Hubbard corrections (DFT+U). The analysis of the configurational free energies shows that different behaviour is expected for the equilibrium cation distributions in these structures: FeCr2X4 and FeMn2S4 are fully normal, FeNi2X4 and FeCo2S4 are intermediate, and FeCo2O4 and FeMn2O4 are fully inverted. We have analyzed the role played by the size of the ions and by the crystal field stabilization effects in determining the equilibrium inversion degree. We also discuss how the electronic and magnetic structure of these spinels is modified by the degree of inversion, assuming that this could be varied from the equilibrium value. We have obtained electronic densities of states for the completely normal and completely inverse cation distribution of each compound. FeCr2X4, FeMn2X4, FeCo2O4 and FeNi2O4 are half-metals in the ferrimagnetic state when Fe is in tetrahedral positions. When M is filling the tetrahedral positions, the Cr-containing compounds and FeMn2O4 are half-metallic systems, while the Co and Ni spinels are insulators. The Co and Ni sulfide counterparts are metallic for any inversion degree together with the inverse FeMn2S4. Our calculations suggest that the spin filtering properties of the FeM2X4 (thio)spinels could be modified via the control of the cation distribution through variations in the synthesis conditions.