Tractable valuations under uncertainty

I put forward a concise and intuitive formula for the calculation of the valuation for a good in the presence of the expectation that further, related, goods will soon become available. This valuation is tractable in the sense that it does not require the explicit resolution of the consumerís life-time problem.

Dynamic Relational Contracts under Complete Information

This paper considers a long-term relationship between two agents who both undertake a costly action or investment that together produces a joint benefit. Agents have an opportunity to expropriate some of the joint benefit for their own use. Two cases are considered: (i) where agents are risk neutral and are subject to limited liability constraints and (ii) where agents are risk averse, have quasi-linear preferences in consumption and actions but where limited liability constraints do not bind. The question asked is how to structure the investments and division of the surplus over time so as to avoid expropriation. In the risk-neutral case, there may be an initial phase in which one agent overinvests and the other underinvests. However, both actions and surplus converge monotonically to a stationary state in which there is no overinvestment and surplus is at its maximum subject to the constraints. In the risk-averse case, there is no overinvestment. For this case, we establish that dynamics may or may not be monotonic depending on whether or not it is possible to sustain a first-best allocation. If the first-best allocation is not sustainable, then there is a trade-off between risk sharing and surplus maximization. In general, surplus will not be at its constrained maximum even in the long run.

Is Graduate Under-employment Persistent? Evidence from the United Kingdom

This paper examines the persistence of under-employment amongst UK higher education graduates. For the cohort of individuals who graduated in 2002/3, micro-data collected by the Higher Education Statistical Agency, are used to calculate the rates of "non-graduate job" employment 6 months and 42 months after graduation. A logic regression analysis suggests the underemployment is not a short-term phenomenon and is systematically related to a set of observable characteristics. It is also found that under-employment 42 months after graduation, which is consistent with the view that the nature of the first job after graduation is important in terms of occupational attainment later in the life-cycle.

Quantile forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods are regularly used to deal with model uncertainty in regression models. This paper shows how to introduce Bayesian model averaging methods in quantile regressions, and allow for different predictors to affect different quantiles of the dependent variable. I show that quantile regression BMA methods can help reduce uncertainty regarding outcomes of future inflation by providing superior predictive densities compared to mean regression models with and without BMA.

Reversibility of cardiac fibrosis in mice chronically infected with Trypanosoma cruzi, under specific chemotherapy

This investigation was performed to verify the effect of specific chemotherapy (Benznidazole or MK-346) on the inflammatory and fibrotic cardiac alterations in mice chronically infected with the strains 21 SF (Type II) and Colombian (Type III) of Trypanosoma cruzi. To obtain chronically infected mice, two groups of 100 Swiss mice each, were infected with either the 21 SF or the Colombian strain (2x 10 [raised to the power of] 4 and 5x 10 [raised to the power of] 4 blood forms respectively). The rate of morality in the acute phase was of 80% for both groups. Twenty surviving mice chronically infected with the 21 SF strain and 20 with the Colombian strain were then divided in treated and untreated groups. Excluding those that died during the course of treatment, 14 mice chronically infected with the 21 SF strain and 15 with the Colombian strain were evaluated in the present study. Chemotherapy was performed with Benznidazole (N-benzil-2-nitro-1-imidazolacetamide) in the dose of 100mg/k.b.w/day, for 60 days, or with the MK-436(3(1-methyl-5 nitroimidazol-2-yl) in two daily doses of 250 mg/k.b.w, for 20 days. Parasitological cure tests were performed (xenodiagnosis, haemoculture, subinovulation of the blood into newborn mice), and serological indirect immunofluorescence test. The treated and untreated mice as well as intact controls were killed at different periods after treatment and the heart were submitted to histopathological study with hematoxilineosin and picrosirius staining; ultrastructural study; collagen immunotyping, fibronectin and laminin identification by immunofluorescence tests. Results: the untreated controls either infected with 21 SF or Colombian strain, showed inflammatory and fibrotic alterations that were mild to moderate with the 21 SF strain and intense with the Colombian strain. Redpicrosirius staining showed bundles of collagen in the interstitial space and around cardiac fibers. Increased deposits of mitritial components and collagen fibers, macrophages and fibroblasts appeared at the ultra structural examination. Deposits of fibronectin, laminin, pro-III and IV collagens were seen, most intense in those infected with the Colombian strain. Treated nice, parasitologically cured, presented clear-cut regression of the inflammatory lesions and of the interstitial matrix thickening. Mice infected with the Colombian strain and treated with MK-436, was parasitologically cured in 5/6 cases and showed mild inflammatory infiltration and fibrosis. The mice treated with Benznidazole (Colombian strain) did not cure and showed moderate fibrosis and inflammation. Treatment of the nice infected with the 21 SF with Benznidazole determined parasitological cure of all animals, that showed mild inflammation and fibrosis of the myocardium. The cured mice of all groups and treated but uncured showed collagen degradation at electronmicroscopy and decrease of immunofluorescence pattern of the matrix.

Displacement of Biomfhalaria glabrata by thiara granifera under natural conditions in the Dominican Republic

After a study of the population dynamics of Biomphalaria glabrata snails in several breeding places in the Dominican Republic, the snail Thiara granifera was introduced in some B. glabrata habitats. T. granifera became established in one point in one habitat in the townof Quisqueya, in the east of the country. Around this point of establishment 6 points were selected in order to observe the population dynamics of both species of snails and the chemical and biological characteristics at each point. Four of these points already harbored B. glabrata. One control point was selected also harboring B. glabrata. After 14 months of observations, the results showed that T. granifera was competing with and displacing B. glabrata. This competition does not seem to be competition for food or vital space. Rather, B. glabrata avoids the presence of T. granifera and moves away to new areas, and this is possibly due to a chemical substance(s) secreted by T. granifera or by physical contact with the large number of individuals of T. granifera.

Potential sources of biodynamically active natural products in Brazil

In contrast to China where vegatation is predominantly herbaceous, vegetation in Brazil is commonly arboreous. This fact may explain why Chinese drugs are usually acetate derived, while actual and potential natural therapeutic agents from Brazil are mostly shikimate derived. Only relatively few compounds isolated from Brazilian plants have been submitted to adequate pharmacological testing

Marine organisms: an alternative source of potentially valuable natural products

This paper recalls the outcoming of marine natural products research and reviews a selection of marirne bioactive metabolites in current use together with promising trends in marine pharmacology.

Development of natural products as drugs acting on central nervous system

We have recenty studied several natural product constituents which have effects on the CNS. (1) Tetrahydropalmatine (THP) and its analogues were isolated from Corydalis ambigua and various species of Stephania. (+)-THP and (-)-THP posses not only analgesic activity, but also exert sedative-tranquillizing and hypnotic actions. Results of receptor binding assay and their pre-and post-synaptic effects on dopaminergic system indicate that (-)-THP and (-)-stepholidine are dopamine receptor antagonists while (+)-THP is a selective dopamine depletor. (2) 3-Acetylaconitine (AAC) is an alkaloid isolated from Aconitum flavum. The relative potency of analgesic action of AAC was 5.1-35.6 and 1250-3912 times that of morphine and aspirin, respectively. The analgesic effect of AAC was antagonized by naloxone, but was eliminated by reserpine. In monkeys, after AAC was injected for 92 days, no abstinence syndrome was seen after sudden AAC withdrawal or when challenged with nalorphine. (3) Huperzine A (Hup-A) is an alkaloid isolated from Huperzia serrata which was found to be a selective ChE inhibitor and could improve learning and retrieval process. Preliminary clinical studies showed that Hup-A improve short-and long-term memory in patients of cerebral arteriosclerosis with memory impairment. (4) Ranamargarin is a new tetradecapeptide isolated from the skin of the Chines frog Rana margaratae. This peptide may mainly act on NK-1 receptor.

Antimalarial chemotherapy with natural products and chemically defined molecules

In the present work we have described the in vivo antimalarial actrivity of six different plants. Two of them (Verninia brasiliana and Eupatorium squalidum) were tested in a randomic approach among 273 crude extracts from plants; four (Acanhospermum australe, Esenbeckia febrifuga, Lisianthus specious and Tachia guianensis) were selected after screening 22 crude extracts from different medicinal and some of them showed antimalarial activity in vitro. Some aspects of recent research with natural products aiming to produce drugs are discussed.

Evaluation of acute administration of natural products with potential diuretic effects, in humans

In order to evaluate the potential diuretic effect of two natural products, Elephantopus scaber and Alpinia speciosa, a trial administration was carried out in ten healthy volunteers and the effects compared to the those of a placebo. The substances were given on different days, with a seven day interval between doses. The amount of substance administered to the subjects was five times the usual dose i.e. 7.5 g/100 ml and 0.8 g/100 ml respectively. The following parameters parameteres were measured: urinary and plasma sodium, potassium, uric acid, calcium, phosphate, urea, creatinine. The subjects were also examined clinically and total urinary volume was assessed. The only significant finding (p < 0.05) was a slight diuresis with Alpinia speciosa, which also lowered the diastolic (p < 0.05) and systolic (p < 0.01) blood pressures. No effect on electrolytes or renal function parameters was observed, and this probably excludes any renal tubular or glomerular effect from these substances.

Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.