Quantification of physical and biological uncertainty in the simulation of the yield of a tropical crop using present-day and doubled CO2 climates

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (lambda, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966-1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of lambda near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

Seed dormancy and germination of Ficus lundellii and tropical forest restoration

We investigated seed dormancy and germination in Ficus lundellii Standl. (Moraceae), a native species of Mexico's Los Tuxtlas tropical rain forest. In an 8-h photoperiod at an alternating diurnal (16/8 h) temperature of 20/30 degrees C, germination was essentially complete (96%) within 28 days, whereas in darkness, all seeds remained dormant. Neither potassium nitrate (0.05-0.2%) applied continuously nor gibberellic acid applied either continuously (10-200 ppm) or as a 24 hour pretreatment (2000 ppm) induced germination in the dark. Germination in the light was not reduced by a 24-h hydrochloric acid (0.1-1%) pretreatment, but it was reduced both by a 24-h pretreatment with either H2O2 (0. 1-5 M) or 5% HCl, or by more than 5 days of storage at 40 degrees C (4.5% seed water content). In a study with a 2-dimensional temperature gradient plate, seeds germinated fully and rapidly in the light at a constant temperature of 30 degrees C, and fully but less rapidly in the light at alternating temperatures with low amplitudes (< 12 degrees C) about the optimal constant temperature. The base, optimal and ceiling temperatures for rate of germination were estimated as 13.8, 30.1 and 41.1 degrees C, respectively. In all temperature regimes, light was essential for the germination of F lundellii seeds.

Seed survival of four tropical tree species in response to environment

The response of seed survival to storage duration and environment (temperature and moisture content) in the four tropical tree species: Cedrela odorata L., Ceiba pentandra (L.) Gaertn., Dalbergia spruceana Benth. and Tabebuia alba (Cham.) Sandwith. from Amazonia conformed to the seed viability equation of Ellis and Roberts. Estimates of the seed viability constants to calculate seed longevity in these species are provided.

The impact of harvesting on a formerly endangered tropical bird: insights from life-history theory

1. Life-history theory assumes that trade-offs exist between an individual's life-history components, such that an increased allocation of a resource to one fitness trait might be expected to result in a cost for a conflicting fitness trait. Recent evidence from experimental manipulations of wild individuals supports this assumption. 2. The management of many bird populations involves harvesting for both commercial and conservation purposes. One frequently harvested life-history stage is the egg, but the consequences of repeated egg harvesting for the individual and the long-term dynamics of the population remain poorly understood. 3. We used a well-documented restored population of the Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus as a model system to explore the consequences of egg harvesting (and associated management practices) for an individual within the context of life-history theory. 4. Our analysis indicated that management practices enhanced both the size and number of clutches laid by managed females, and improved mid-life male and female adult survival relative to unmanaged adult kestrels. 5. Although management resulted in an increased effort in egg production, it reduced parental effort during incubation and the rearing of offspring, which could account for these observed changes. 6. Synthesis and applications. This study demonstrates how a commonly applied harvesting strategy, when examined within the context of life-history theory, can identify improvements in particular fitness traits that might alleviate some of the perceived negative impact of harvesting on the long-term dynamics of a managed population.

Antifeedant activities of crude seed extracts of tropical African spices against Spodoptera littoralis (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

The antifeedant activities of Piper guineense Schum et Thonn (Piperaceae), Aframomum melegueta (Rosk) K. Schum (Zingiberaceae), Aframomum citratum (Pareira) K. Schum (Zingiberaceae) and Afrostyrax kamerunensis Perkins and Gilg (Huaceae) seed extracts were investigated in laboratory dual- and no-choice bioassays using third-instar Spodoptera littoralis (Boisduval) larvae. In the dual-choice test, the hexane and methanol extracts of A. melegueta showed potent dose-dependent antifeedant activity at concentrations of ≥300 ppm and the water extract at ≥500 ppm, as illustrated by significantly lower leaf consumptions. Aframomum citratum methanol and water extracts exhibited antifeedant activity at ≥300 and ≥1000 ppm, respectively, but the hexane and ethanol extracts did not affect feeding at any concentration. Piper guineense ethanol and water extracts showed dose-dependent antifeedant effects at ≥300 and ≥500 ppm, respectively, and the methanol extract was active only at 1000 ppm. None of the extracts of the highly aromatic A. kamerunensis exhibited antifeedant activity at any of the tested concentrations. In the no-choice bioassays, extracts with antifeedant activity in the dual-choice tests also showed dose-dependent feeding inhibition. The hexane and methanol extracts of A. melegueta were effective in the no-choice tests at ≥100 and ≥500 ppm, respectively, and the water extract at ≥300 ppm. Similarly, the A. citratum water and methanol extracts were active at ≥500 ppm and the P. guineense water and ethanol extracts at ≥100 ppm. GC/MS chromatography of A. melegueta hexane and methanol extracts revealed volatile constituents with known anti-insect activity. The hexane and methanol extracts of A. melegueta, the methanol extract of A. citratum and the water and ethanol extracts of P. guineense may have potential for use by subsistence farmers.

The nutritive value of forage sorghum genotypes developed for the dry tropical highlands of Kenya as feed source for ruminants

in vitro studies were conducted on five sorghum genotypes developed for the dry tropical highland climate of Kenya and which can be fed to ruminants fresh or as silage. The five sorghum genotypes consisted of two normal white mid-rib (WMR) genotypes, coded E1291 and E65181, and three brown-midrib (BMR) genotypes, coded Lan-5, Lan-6 and Lan-12. Whole mature plants (herbage plus grain) and silage made from E 1291 were used in the study. An in vitro manual gas production technique was used to compare the nutritive characteristics of these genotypes for ruminants. These sorghums differed significantly in true organic matter degraded (OMDeg), which ranged from 520 to 678 g/kg after 24 h incubation and 706 to 805 g/kg after 72 h incubation. All the BMR sorghums had a higher degradability than the WMR genotype, E6518, and the silage, with Lan-5 having the highest degradability. Methane produced per g OMDeg ranged from 40.6 to 46.4 mL/g after 24 h incubation and from 53.1 to 62.6 mL/g after 72 h incubation. It was similar for all genotypes after 24 h incubation but Lan-12 had the highest methane production after 72 h incubation. After 24 h and 72 h incubation all the genotypes produced a similar total amount of gas per OMDeg (293 to 309 and 357 to 385 mL/g, respectively) with similar total short chain fatty acid concentrations in the liquid digesta (7.8 to 10.4 and 9.5 to 10.3 mmol, respectively) and acetate to propionate ratios of 2.16 to 2.49 and 2.35 to 2.87, respectively. The sorghums showed great potential as ruminant feed sources in the region.

A new species of Myosotis L. (Boraginaceae) from Cameroon, with a key to the Tropical African species of the genus

Myosotic cameroonensis Cheek & R Becker (Boraginacene) is described from Cameroon. Its conservation status and taxonomic affinities are assessed and an updated key to the Tropical African species of the genus is presented.