Dispersion of information or market behaviour : general public trading in S & P 500 index futures

This paper considers 15 minute records of trading volume and traded prices coinciding with the reporting intervals required by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Records are extracted from trade records for two way trade between market makers (CTI1) and the general public (CTI4) from January 1994 to June 2004. Futures price records are matched with S&P500 cash index price records. Simultaneous volatility models are specified and estimated to test trading volume to futures volatility lead/lag effects and also futures volatility to cash index volatility lead/lag effects. There is evidence that existing theoretical models of the general public trading behaviour do not explain such behaviour in these very actively traded markets. These effects can depend more on market conditions than what is suggested in theoretical models.

Victorian index of estuary condition : recommended themes and measures

Deakin University was engaged by the Department of Sustainability and Environment to develop an Index of Estuary Condition (IEC) for evaluating the environmental condition of Victorian estuaries. The Index will ultimately complement the existing Index of Stream Condition (ISC) by providing a consistent statewide assessment of the environmental condition of estuaries. This will better enable:

• Estuarine condition to be reported at regional, state and national levels.

• Prioritisation of resource allocation.

• Strategic evaluation of management interventions in estuaries.

Workshops involving participants with expertise in a variety of disciplines were convened to integrate learnings from assessment programs currently being developed interstate and overseas. This report synthesises and builds on the output from those workshops which:

• Identified key components (themes) of estuaries that contribute to estuarine condition.

• Contributed to development of a broad conceptual model for Victorian estuaries

• Identified possible measures of each theme

In keeping with the sub-indices of the ISC, six themes were identified for use in the IEC: Physical form, Hydrology, Water quality, Sediment, Flora and Fauna. Several measures within each theme are recommended to assess estuary condition.

Implementation of particular measures in the IEC partly depends on the investment required to both collect and interpret the required data. With regard to data collection, each measure was assessed according to whether there is an established sampling procedure, how frequently data need to be collected and the level of expertise required for collection and processing. For interpreting the data, measures were scored on whether baseline condition is established and whether descriptions and scores are developed which reflect the extent of deviation from that condition. These scores were used to indicate which measures are feasible to implement immediately and which require further investigation.

A trial of the recommended IEC measures in a selection of estuaries is recommended as it would provide an opportunity to test the measures and their suitability for application statewide. It is suggested that the trial is conducted in estuaries subject to various levels of threats within each of the four estuary classes described by Barton et al. (2008)

HOMA insulin sensitivity index and the risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease events in the general population : the Australian diabetes, obesity and lifestyle study (AusDiab) study

Aims/hypothesis We assessed whether the relationships between insulin sensitivity and all-cause mortality as well as fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) events are independent of elevated blood glucose, high blood pressure, dyslipidaemia and body composition in individuals without diagnosed diabetes.
Methods Between 1999 and 2000, baseline fasting insulin, glucose and lipids, 2 h plasma glucose, HbA1c, anthropometrics, blood pressure, medication use, smoking and history of CVD were collected from 8,533 adults aged >35 years from the population-based Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study. Insulin sensitivity was estimated by HOMA of insulin sensitivity (HOMA-%S). Deaths and fatal or non-fatal CVD events were ascertained through linkage to the National Death Index and medical records adjudication.
Results After a median of 5.0 years there were 277 deaths and 225 CVD events. HOMA-%S was not associated with all-cause mortality. Compared with the most insulin-sensitive quintile, the combined fatal or non-fatal CVD HR (95% CI) for quintiles of decreasing HOMA-%S were 1.1 (0.6–1.9), 1.4 (0.9–2.3), 1.6 (1.0–2.5) and 2.0 (1.3–3.1), adjusting for age and sex. Smoking, CVD history, hypertension, lipid-lowering medication, total cholesterol and waist-to-hip ratio moderately attenuated this relationship. However, the association was rendered non-significant by adding HDL. Fasting plasma glucose, but not HOMA-%S significantly improved the prediction of CVD, beyond that seen with other risk factors.
Conclusions/interpretation In this cohort, HOMA-%S showed no association with all-cause mortality and only a modest association with CVD events, largely explained by its association with HDL. Fasting plasma glucose was a better predictor of CVD than HOMA-%S.

An index of regional sustainability : a GIS-based multiple criteria analysis decision support system for progressing sustainability

GIS (Geographical Information Systems) based decision support tools will be useful in helping guide regions to sustainability. These tools need to be simple but effective at identifying, for regional managers, areas most in need of initiatives to progress sustainability. Multiple criteria analysis (MCA) has been used as a decision support tool for a wide number of applications, as it provides a systematic framework for evaluating various options. It has the potential to be used as a tool for sustainability assessment, because it can bring together the sustainability criteria from all pillars, social, economic and environmental, to give an integrated assessment of sustainability. Furthermore, the use of GIS and MCA together is an emerging addition to conducting sustainability assessments. This paper further develops a sustainability assessment framework developed for the Glenelg Hopkins Catchment Management Authority region of Victoria, Australia by providing a GIS-based decision support system for regional agencies. This tool uses multiple criteria analysis in a GIS framework to assess the sustainability of sub-catchments in the Glenelg Hopkins Catchment. The multiple criteria analysis based on economic, social and environmental indicators developed in previous stages of this project was used as the basis to build a model in ArcGIS1. The GIS-based multiple criteria analysis, called An Index of Regional Sustainability Spatial Decision Support System (AIRS SDSS),
produced maps showing sub-catchment sustainability, and environmental, social and economic condition. As a result, this tool is able to highlight those sub-catchments most in need of assistance with achieving sustainability. It will also be a valuable tool for evaluation and monitoring of strategies for sustainability. This paper shows the usefulness of GIS-based multiple criteria analysis to enhance the monitoring and evaluation of sustainability at the regional to sub-catchment scale.

Effect of the glycemic index of carbohydrates on day-long (10 h) profiles of plasma glucose, insulin, cholecystokinin and ghrelin

Background: Low glycemic index (GI) carbohydrates have been linked to increased satiety. The drive to eat may be mediated by postprandial changes in glucose, insulin and gut peptides.
Objective: To investigate the effect of a low and a high GI diet on day-long (10 h) blood concentrations of glucose, insulin, cholecystokinin (CCK) and ghrelin (GHR).
Design: Subjects (n¼12) consumed a high and a low GI diet in a randomized, crossover design, consisting of four meals that were matched for macronutrients and fibre, and differed only in carbohydrate quality (GI). Blood was sampled every 30–60 min and assayed for glucose, insulin, CCK and GHR.
Results: The high GI diet resulted in significantly higher glucose and insulin mean incremental areas under the curve (IAUC, P¼0.027 and P¼0.001 respectively). CCK concentration was 59% higher during the first 7 h of the low GI diet (394±95 pmol/l min) vs the high GI diet (163±38 pmol/l min, P¼0.046), but there was no difference over 10 h (P¼0.224). GHR concentration was inversely correlated with insulin concentration (Pearson correlation 0.48, P¼0.007), but did not differ significantly between the low and high GI diets.
Conclusions: Mixed meals of lower GI are associated with lower day-long concentrations of glucose and insulin, and higher CCK after breakfast, morning tea and lunch. This metabolic profile could mediate differences in satiety and hunger seen in some, but not all, studies.

A measurement framework for international entrepreneurship policy research : from impossible index to malleable matrix

The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), a multifaceted, multinational research programme now in its seventh year of field operation, currently dominates the field of international entrepreneurship policy research but faces a crisis of credibility. Despite having created and continuing to develop a very rich database capable of addressing many of the complexities requisite for understanding entrepreneurship at the national and international levels of analysis, GEM has chosen to disguise the depths of its potential research and policy utility through a misnamed quest for unobtainable simplicity at the centre of the project and a disorganised variety of report presentations at the periphery. Subsequent to a review of the entrepreneurial definitional literature and a resolution of its many themes into six components of entrepreneurial activity, based on Penrose's (1959/1995) articulation of the practical meaning of 'entrepreneurial services', this paper suggests that a 'malleable matrix' approach can provide a practical measurement framework capable of reporting national entrepreneurial activity in a structure that is comprehensive without being overwhelming.

Evaluating the triple bottom line in the implementation of photovoltaic systems in UK social housing

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warnings regarding the detrimental effects of carbon dioxide emissions and global warming have gained acceptance amongst many governments (IPCC 2001). The UK government has agreed to reduce emissions, implement a package of enabling measures (UKCCP 2000) and issued an Energy White Paper (HMSO 2003) calling for a diversification of energy supply policies which will include renewable sources.

Housing accounts for approximately 25% of UK CO2 emissions and as providers of social housing, Registered Social Landlords (RSLs) and their tenants are major contributors. RSLs are deliverers of national policy in several areas and contribute to the attainment of governmental environmental, social and economic targets and impact upon the wider demands of housing policy, healthcare, education and law & order (DETR 1999, Cole and Shayer 1998).

Photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation could deliver “free” electricity to the low income households historically housed by RSLs. PV helps address such issues as fuel poverty and could be used as a stimulus for creating interest in areas of low demand for social housing.

RSLs provide housing solutions which cross traditional economic, social and environmental divides and this lends their modus operandi to the concept of the triple bottom line. The triple bottom line enables social and environmental aspects to be considered alongside economic considerations within decision-making frameworks (Elkington 1999, Andreason 1995).

Using a qualitative research methodology, this paper assesses current commercial viability of PV installations on RSL developments and identifies key barriers to implementation. The paper also investigates whether the application of the triple bottom line can liberate RSLs from viewing PV as a non-viable option by enabling a greater emphasis to be placed on the social & environmental aspects of PV. The paper considers whether a framework for RSLs to improve their decision-making processes by embracing social & environmental factors is feasible.

Effect of low and high glycaemic index diets on developing the risk of metabolic syndrome in rats

Several observational studies have shown that the chronic consumption of high glycaemic index diet is associated with an increased risk of developing metabolic syndrome.  This study was performed to identify the direct influences on the lipid profile and the adipose tissue deposition and the subsequent development of the risk of metabolic syndrome in rats by feeding diets of low glycaemic index (LGI) and high glycaemic index (HGI). Fifty rat weanlings (three weeks old) were equally divided into two groups and fed on either low glycaemic index diet based on high amylose, or isocaloric high glycacmic index diet for 12 weeks. Postprandial blood and tissue samples were collected at the end of the 12 weeks of feeding. The total white adipose tissue weights of the HGl fed rats (24.74 ± 0.53 glrat) were significantly higher than the LGl fed rats (15.37 ± 0.36 gh·at). The HO! led rats had higher postprandial leptin concentrations (1.86 ± 0.17 ng/ml) than LGI fed rats (1.34 ± 0.12 ng/ml). The postprandial insulin, and postprandial insulin glucose ratio were higher in the HGI fed rats (7.06 ± 0.90 ng/ml and 0.67 ± 0.01 ng/mlxmM) compared to the LGl fed rats (3.91 ± 0.4 ng/ml and 0.44 ± 0.01 ng/mlxmM). Triglycerides of the l-IGI fed rats showed higher values (I .56 ± 0.10 mM) than the LO! fed rats (l.07 ± 0.08 mM). The results indicated that LGI feeding was beneficial in preventing the conditions enhancing the cardio vascular disease whereas long-term feeding of HGI diet may increase the risk of developing metabolic syndrome in rats.

Glycemic index and glycogen

INTRODUCTION : Fatigue in sports is often associated with depletion of muscle glycogen storage. Obesity is considered to be a major barrier against physical activity in sports. In order to bring the glycogen storage to a satisfactory level sports persons tend to increase consumption carbohydrates, preferred consumption of high glycemic index (HGI) than low glycemic index (LGI) diets. But HGI foods may promote postprandial carbohydrate oxidation at the expense of fat oxidation and increase body fat gain. LGI diets that produce a low and slow glycemic response may enhance higher glycogen storage instead of fat deposition.

METHODOLOGY : To test this hypothesis, 30 male Wistar rats after weaning were given either a high glycemic index (HGI) or low glycemic index (LGI) diet for until their age of 12 weeks. Then the subjects were scarified and their plasma, serum, and muscle samples were collected. RESULTS-The study revealed that HGI diets fed rats had higher plasma cholesterol and Leptin (LGI Leptin 1.34 +/- 0.13ng/ml, HGI Leptin 2.12 +/- .20ng/ml) concentrations. It also found the liver and muscle glycogen storage in LGI diets showed higher level (LGI-liver 108 +/-3.0 mg/100g, LGI-muscle 22.6+/- 2.3g/100g) than that of HGI (HGI-liver 96 +/- 2.0mg/100g, HGI-muscle 18+/- 1.5g/100g) diets.

CONCLUSION : the long term feeding of LGI carbohydrate encourages more glycogen storage while HGI increases fat deposition. Consumption of LGI diets has an advantage over HGI diets of higher physical activity while elevating glycogen storage and reducing chances of obesity.

Introduction of electronic trading in index futures : volatility and volume effects

There is continuing debate in the US over full introduction of electronic trading in those index futures contracts that are still traded at the CME via open outcry. Since the late 1990s major international exchanges trading index futures contracts have converted to full electronic trading. Recent empirical studies have focused on effects on bid/ask spreads and related price volatility following these changes. We take a different approach and investigate and test for structural change in conditional volatility and volume effects following the shift to electronic trading in the Australian Share Price Index futures contract. Multiple Switching point GARCH models are employed with the data sampled at 5, 15 and 30-minute intervals from transaction records supplied by the Sydney Futures Exchange. There is significant evidence of structural changes in both the persistence of volatility shocks and simultaneous volume effects following the change to screen trading in this futures market.