Situational awareness for critical infrastructure protection

Postgraduate seminar series with a title Situational Awareness for Critical Infrastructure Protection held at the Department of Military Technology of the National Defence University in 2015. This book is a collection of some of talks that were presented in the seminar. The papers address designing inter-organizational situation awareness system, principles of designing for situation awareness, situation awareness in distributed teams, vulnerability analysis in a critical system context, tactical Command, Control, Communications, Computers, & Intelligence (C4I) systems, and improving situational awareness in the circle of trust. This set of papers tries to give some insight to current issues of the situation awareness for critical infrastructure protection. The seminar has always made a publication of the papers but this has been an internal publication of the Finnish Defence Forces and has not hindered publication of the papers in international conferences. Publication of these papers in peer reviewed conferences has indeed been always the goal of the seminar, since it teaches writing conference level papers. We still hope that an internal publication in the department series is useful to the Finnish Defence Forces by offering an easy access to these papers.

Commerce in disguise : war and trade in the Caribbean free port of Gustavia, 1793–1815

ISBN 978-951-765-806-5Avhandlingen studerar frihamnen Gustavia på ön S:t Barthélemy, den svenska kolonin i Västindien, under de franska revolutionskrigen 1793-1815. Syftet är att kartlägga den ekonomiska aktiviteten genom Gustavia genom ett outforskat källmaterial och analysera hamnens roll i Västindien och i den atlantiska ekonomin under krigsåren. Det viktigaste resultatet av undersökningen är att den påvisar den kortvariga men exceptionella position som Gustavia fick under krigen, vilket ledde till att stora varuflöden gick genom den svenska kolonin och att sjöfart under svensk flagg i regionen tilltog. Krigskonjunkturen hämtade till ön ett stort antal nya invånare, framförallt från angränsande karibiska kolonier men också från USA och Europa. Frihamnen och ön fungerade kort under några decennier som en global marknadsplats i Västindien för handelsmän som kringgick blockader och handelsförbud. Vidare närmar sig även avhandlingen frågor om Sveriges engagemang i slavhandeln på ett systematiskt sätt, och demonstrerar att den svenska slavhandeln var mer omfattande än den tidigare forskningen visat, speciellt efter att rörelsen för slavhandelns förbud fått ett starkt fäste i Storbritannien. De tidigare stora internationella undersökningarna om slavhandeln har ofta missat det svenska inslaget. S:t Barthélemy har fått relativt lite uppmärksamhet i den svenska historieforskningen, och har ofta skildrats som ett exotiskt och ganska betydelselöst inslag i Sverige 1800-talshistoria. Mycket av den tidigare forskningen präglas av det nationalhistoriska perspektivet med kolonins länkar till Stockholm i blickfånget. Avhandlingen påvisar att länkarna mellan kolonin och Stockholm var fåtaliga och att dess ekonomiska betydelse för Sverige var ytterst liten. Däremot omvärderar avhandlingen kolonins betydelsefulla roll i ett större internationellt sammanhang. ----------------------------------------------------------- Väitöskirja käsittelee Gustavian vapaasatamaa Ruotsin Länsi-Intian siirtomaassa Saint-Barthélemyn saarella, Ranskan vallankumoussotien aikana 1793–1815. Tarkoitus on ollut kartoittaa Gustavian kautta kulkevaa taloudellista toimintaa tutkimattomien lähteiden avulla ja arvioida sataman asemaa Länsi-Intiassa sekä atlanttisessa taloudessa sotavuosina.Väitöskirjan tärkein tulos osoittaa sataman sotien aikana saavuttamaa lyhytkestoista mutta poikkeuksellista roolia, mikä johti suuren kaupankäynnin saapumiseen ruotsalaissiirtomaahan sekä siihen, että merenkulku ruotsalaisen lipun alla kiihtyi Länsi-Intian alueella. Sotatalouden nousukausi aikaansai pienelle saarelle muuttoliikkeen myötä suuren väestönkasvun, jonka lähteenä olivat pääsääntöisesti lähisaaret, mutta osa uusista asukkaista tuli myös Yhdysvalloista ja Euroopasta. Gustavian vapaasatama toimi muutaman vuosikymmenen ajan globaalina markkinapaikkana Länsi-Intian kauppamiehille, joilla oli tarve kiertää kauppasaartoja ja -kieltoja. Lisäksi väitöskirja lähestyy kysymystä Ruotsin osallistumisesta orjankauppaan ja osoittaa että ruotsalainen orjakauppa oli laajempaa kuin aiempi tutkimus on väittänyt, etenkin sen jälkeen kun kansanliike orjakauppaa vastaan oli saavuttanut vahvan tuen Iso-Britanniassa. Aiemmat laajat kansainväliset kartoitukset orjakaupasta ovat usein ohittaneet ruotsalaisten osallisuutta tässä yhteydessä. Saint-Barthélemy on aiemmin saanut suhteellisen vähän huomiota ruotsalaisessa historiankirjoituksessa, ja sitä on usein hahmoteltu eksoottisena ja melko merkityksettömänä osana Ruotsin 1800-luvun historiaa. Aiempaa tutkimusta on paljolti leimannut kansallinen historiankirjoitus, jonka keskeisenä kiinnostuksena ovat olleet saaren yhteydet Tukholmaan. Väitöskirja osoittaa kuitenkin että nämä yhteydet olivat heikkoja ja että siirtomaan taloudellinen merkitys Ruotsille oli hyvinkin pieni. Toisaalta väitöskirja arvioi siirtomaan todellista ja tärkeää roolia uudelleen sijoittamalla sen isompaan kansainväliseen asiayhteyteen.

The impact on advanced economies of north-south trade in manufacturing and services

Many types of production are being transferred from the rich economies of the North to the poorer economies of the South. Such changes began in manufacturing but are now spreading to services. This paper provides estimates of their past and future impact on employment in the North. About 5 million manufacturing jobs have been lost over the past decade because of trade with low-wage economies. A similar number of service jobs may be lost to low-wage economies over the next decade. Although small compared to total employment, such losses may seriously harm certain localities or types of worker.

Trophic cascades in boreal landscapes: top predator protection on tree seedlings and forest grouse

Changes in the abundance of top predators have brought about notable, cascading effects in ecosystems around the world. In this thesis, I examined several potential trophic cascades in boreal ecosystems, and their separate interspecific interactions. The main aim of the thesis was to investigate whether predators in the boreal forests have direct or indirect cascading effects on the lower trophic levels. First, I compared the browsing effects of different mammalian herbivores by excluding varying combinations of voles, hares and cervids from accessing the seedlings of silver birch (Betula pendula), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Norway spruce (Picea abies). Additionally, I studied the effect of simulated predation risk on vole browsing by using auditory cues of owls. Moving upwards on the trophic levels, I examined the intraguild interactions between the golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos), and its mesopredator prey, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and the pine marten (Martes martes). To look at an entire potential trophic cascade, I further studied the combined impacts of eagles and mesopredators on the black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and the hazel grouse (Tetrastes bonasia), predicting that the shared forest grouse prey would benefit from eagle presence. From the tree species studied, birch appears to be the most palatable one for the mammalian herbivores. I observed growth reductions in the presences of cervids and low survival associated with hares and voles, which suggests that they all weaken regeneration in birch stands. Furthermore, the simulated owl predation risk appeared to reduce vole browsing on birches in late summer, although the preferred grass forage is then old and less palatable. Browsing by voles and hares had a negative effect on the condition and survival of Scots pine, but in contrast, the impact of mammalian herbivores on spruce was found to be small, at least when more preferred food is available. I observed that the presence of golden eagles had a negative effect on the abundance of adult black grouse but a positive, protective effect on the proportion of juveniles in both black grouse and hazel grouse. Yet, this positive effect was not dependent on the abundance foxes or martens, nor did eagles seem to effectively decrease the abundance of these mesopredators. Conversely, the protection effect on grouse could arise from fear effects and also be mediated by other mesopredators. The results of this thesis provide important new information about trophic interactions in the boreal food webs. They highlight how different groups of mammalian herbivores vary in their effects on the growth and condition of different tree seedlings. Lowered cervid abundances could improve birch regeneration, which indirectly supports the idea that the key predators of cervids could cause cascading effects also in Fennoscandian forests. Owls seem to reduce vole browsing through an intimidation effect, which is a novel result of the cascading effects of owl vocalisation and could even have applications for protecting birch seedlings. In the third cascade examined in this thesis, I found the golden eagle to have a protective effect on the reproducing forest grouse, but it remains unclear through which smaller predators this effect is mediated. Overall, the results of this thesis further support the idea that there are cascading effects in the forests of Northern Europe, and that they are triggered by both direct and non‐lethal effects of predation.

Political economy of preferential trade agreement: the case of bilateral asymmetric negotiation

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the political economy of preferential trade agreements based on a sequential non-cooperative Stackelberg political game between a large economy and a small one, in which the political dispute of rival lobby groups defines the unilateral stance of both governments in the first stage; and the Stackelberg "coalition-proof" equilibrium defines the free trade agreement format in the second stage. Finally, a few modifications in the initial game structure are discussed in order to enhance the small economy's negotiation power. The political economy model is applied to FTAA case.

Protectionism and industrialization: a critical assessment of the Latin American industrialization period

Protectionist policies were considered one of the pivotal features of the import industrialization process in Latin America. In this paper the effects of protectionist policies are assessed in terms of the principal macroeconomic variables, productive structure and external trade composition; also, ECLAC's perspective on the import substitution process is discussed. The main conclusions are that regional protectionist policies were spontaneous, and their effects were limited due to the generalized protection that took place and the government's commitment to price stability.

Trade with China and strategy in South American recent economic development

Trade between South America and China has been an important source of the high growth shown by those economies in the 2000s. During the globalization of the 1990s, trade between the region and China had not developed so much. A rather sharp growth in China's presence in world trade since the beginning of the 2000s changed the world trade trends for MERCOSUR countries, or, at least, for many of them. The impact of the increasing trade of agrifood has been very relevant, and different per country. Strategy is another important issue, referring to bilateral relations with China. This country should be seen as a partner in the global trade, and not as a new foreign investor for the region, but this may be different in the context of different national strategies of South American countries.

Relay protection in active distribution networks

Increasingly growing share of distributed generation in the whole electrical power system’s generating system is currently a worldwide tendency, driven by several factors, encircling mainly difficulties in refinement of megalopolises’ distribution networks and its maintenance; widening environmental concerns adding to both energy efficiency approaches and installation of renewable sources based generation, inherently distributed; increased power quality and reliability needs; progress in IT field, making implementable harmonization of needs and interests of different-energy-type generators and consumers. At this stage, the volume, formed by system-interconnected distributed generation facilities, have reached the level of causing broad impact toward system operation under emergency and post-emergency conditions in several EU countries, thus previously implementable approach of their preliminary tripping in case of a fault, preventing generating equipment damage and disoperation of relay protection and automation, is not applicable any more. Adding to the preceding, withstand capability and transient electromechanical stability of generating technologies, interconnecting in proximity of load nodes, enhanced significantly since the moment Low Voltage Ride-Through regulations, followed by techniques, were introduced in Grid Codes. Both aspects leads to relay protection and auto-reclosing operation in presence of distributed generation generally connected after grid planning and construction phases. This paper proposes solutions to the emerging need to ensure correct operation of the equipment in question with least possible grid refinements, distinctively for every type of distributed generation technology achieved its technical maturity to date and network’s protection. New generating technologies are equivalented from the perspective of representation in calculation of initial steady-state short-circuit current used to dimension current-sensing relay protection, and widely adopted short-circuit calculation practices, as IEC 60909 and VDE 0102. The phenomenon of unintentional islanding, influencing auto-reclosing, is addressed, and protection schemes used to eliminate an sustained island are listed and characterized by reliability and implementation related factors, whereas also forming a crucial aspect of realization of the proposed protection operation relieving measures.