Attributing inpatient care to diabetes: The case of Medicare for the elderly in Texas, 1995

Specific aims. This study estimated the accuracy of alternative numerator methods for attributing health care utilization and associated costs to diabetes by comparing findings from those methods with findings from a benchmark denominator method. ^ Methods. Using Medicare's 1995 inpatient and enrollment databases for the elderly in Texas, the researcher developed alternative estimates of costs attributable to diabetes. Among alternative numerator methods were selection of all records having diabetes as a principal or secondary diagnosis, and a complex ICD-9-CM sorting routine as previously developed for study of diabetes costs in Texas. Findings from numerator methods were compared with those from a benchmark denominator method based on attributable risk and adapted from a study of national diabetes costs by the American Diabetes Association. This study applied age, gender and ethnicity specific estimates of diabetes prevalence taken from the 1987–94 National Health Interview Surveys to person-months of Medicare Part A, non-HMO enrollment for Texas in 1995. Outcome measures were number of persons identified as having diabetes using alternative definitions of the disease; and number of hospital stays, patient days, and costs using alternative methods for attributing care and costs to diabetes. Cost estimates were based on Medicare payments plus deductibles, co-pays and third party payments. ^ Findings. Numerator methods for attributing costs to diabetes produced findings quite different than those from the benchmark denominator method. When attribution was based on diabetes as principal or secondary diagnosis, the resulting estimates were significantly higher than those obtained from the denominator method. The more complex sorting routine produced estimates near the lower boundary for the confidence interval associated with estimates from the benchmark method. ^ Conclusions. Numerator methods employed by previous researchers poorly estimate the costs of diabetes. While crude mathematical adjustment can be made to the respective numerator approaches, a more useful strategy would be to refine the complex sorting routine to include more hospitalizations. This report recommends approaches to improving methods previously employed in study of diabetes costs. ^

Predictors of weight stability in women and men: The aerobic center longitudinal study, 1987--1995

It is estimated that more than half the U.S. adult population is overweight or obese as classified by a body mass index of 25.0–29.9 or ≥30 kg/m 2, respectively. Since the current treatment approaches for long-term maintenance of weight loss are lacking, the National Institutes of Health state that an effective approach may be to focus on weight gain prevention. There is a limited body of literature describing how adults maintain a stable weight as they age. It is hypothesized that weight stability is the result of a balance between energy consumption and energy expenditure as influenced by diet, lifestyle, behavior, genetics and environment. The purpose of this research was to examine the dietary intake and behaviors, lifestyle habits, and risk factors for weight change that predict weight stability in a cohort of 2101 men and 389 women aged 20 to 8 7 years in the Aerobic Center Longitudinal Study regardless of body weight at baseline. At baseline, participants completed a maximal exercise treadmill test to determine cardiorespiratory fitness, a medical history questionnaire, which included self-reported measures of weight, dietary behaviors, lifestyle habits, and risk factors for weight change, a three-day diet record, and a mail-back version of the medical history questionnaire in 1990 or 1995. All analyses were performed separately for men and women. Results from multivariate regression analyses indicated that the strongest predictor of follow-up weight for men and women was previous weight, accounting for 87.0% and 81.9% of the variance, respectively. Age, length of follow-up and eating habits were also significant predictors of follow-up weight in men, though these variables only explained 3% of the variance. For women, length of follow-up and currently being on a diet were significantly associated with follow-up weight but these variables explained only an additional 2% of the variance. Understanding the factors that influence weight change has tremendous public health importance for developing effective methods to prevent weight gain. Since current weight was the strongest predictor of previous weight, preventing initial weight gain by maintaining a stable weight may be the most effective method to combat the increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity. ^

Strategy and Circumstance: the Response of American Firms to Japanese Competition in Semiconductors, 1980-1995

The transistor was an American invention, and American firms led the world in semiconductor production and innovation for the first three decades of that industry's existence. In the 1980s, however, Japanese producers began to challenge American dominance. Shrill cries arose from the literature of public policy, warning that the American semiconductor industry would soon share the fate of the lamented American consumer electronics business. Few dissented from the implications: the only hope for salvation would be to adopt Japanese-style public policies and imitate the kinds of capabilities Japanese firms possessed. But the predicted extinction never occurred. Instead, American firms surged back during the 1990s, and it now seems the Japanese who are embattled. This striking American turnaround has gone largely unremarked upon in the public policy literature. And even scholarship in strategic management, which thrives on stories of success instead of stories of failure, has been comparatively silent. Drawing on a more thorough economic history of the worldwide semiconductor industry (Langlois and Steinmueller 1999), this essay attempts to collect some of the lessons for strategy research of the American resurgence. We argue that, although some of the American response did consist in changing or augmenting capabilities, most of the renewed American success is in fact the result not of imitating superior Japanese capabilities but rather of taking good advantage of a set of capabilities developed in the heyday of American dominance. Serendipity played at least as important a role as did strategy.