Bródy András gazdaságiciklus-elmélete (András Bródy's theory of economic cycles)

Bródy András kutatásainak egyik központi témaköre a gazdasági mozgás vizsgálata volt. Írásunkban Bródy elméletét kívánjuk röviden áttekinteni és összefoglalni. A termelés sokszektoros leírása egyben árelméletét (értékelméletét, méréselméletét) is keretbe foglalja. Ebben a keretben a gazdasági mozgás összetett ingadozása technológiai alapon elemezhető. Bródy megközelítésében a gazdasági ciklust nem külső megrázkódások magyarázzák, hanem a termelési rendszer belső arányai és kapcsolatai. A termelési struktúrát az árak és a volumenek egyformán alakítják, ezek között nincsen kitüntetett vagy domináns tényező. Az árak és a volumenek a köztük lévő duális kapcsolatban alakulnak ki. A gazdaság mozgásegyenleteit technológiai mérlegösszefüggések, valamint a piaci csere útján a gazdaságban újraelosztásra (újratermelésre) kerülő termékek felhasználása és az eszközlekötés változása írja le. Az így meghatározott mozgásegyenletek a gazdaság természetes mozgását ciklusmozgás alakjában írják le. A technológia vagy az értékviszonyok megváltozása (sokkok) a gazdaság ciklikus mozgásának megváltozásában tükröződik. Bródy munkáiban technológiai megalapozást nyer a történelemből ismert számos jellegzetes gazdasági ciklus. / === / Economic motion and dynamics are at the heart of Andras Brody's creative output. This paper attempts a bird's-eye view of his theory of economic cycles. Brody's multi-sector modelling of production has provided a framework for price theory (the theory of value and measurement). His theory of economic motion with cyclical characteristics is technology driven. It argues that the complex web of economic cycles is determined by the proportions and interrelationships of the system of production, not by arbitrary external shocks. The structure's behaviour are driven by prices and proportions, with the duality of prices and proportions as a dominant feature. These are features in common with the Leontief models, which Brody extended to economic cycles. Brody saw economic cycles as natural motions of economic systems with accumulated assets (time lags) and market exchange of goods (demand and supply adjustment). Changes in technology or valuations (shocks) are reflected in changing patterns of motion. His model of the economy is a fine instrument that enabled him to show how the technological parameters of its system determine the frequency and other characteristics of various economic cycles identified in economic history.

Konjunktúraingadozások az Egyesült Államokban 1970-2010 - Értelmezési nehézségek = Business cycles and recession patterns in the US economy and in the G7

Lehet-e beszélni a 2011-ig felgyülemlett empirikus tapasztalatok tükrében egy egységes válságlefolyásról, amely a fejlett ipari országok egészére általában jellemző, és a meghatározó országok esetében is megragadható? Megállapíthatók-e olyan univerzális változások a kibocsátás, a munkapiacok, a fogyasztás, valamint a beruházás tekintetében, amelyek jól illeszkednek a korábbi tapasztalatokhoz, nem kevésbé az ismert makromodellek predikcióihoz? A válasz – legalábbis jelen sorok írásakor – nemleges: sem a válság lefolyásának jellegzetességeiben és a makrogazdasági teljesítmények romlásának ütemében, sem a visszacsúszás mértékében és időbeli kiterjedésében sincsenek jól azonosítható közös jegyek, olyanok, amelyek a meglévő elméleti keretekbe jól beilleszthetők. A tanulmány áttekinti a válsággal és a makrogazdasági sokkokkal foglalkozó empirikus irodalom – a pénzügyi globalizáció értelmezései nyomán – relevánsnak tartott munkáit. Ezt követően egy 60 év távlatát átfogó vizsgálatban próbáljuk megítélni a recessziós időszakokban az amerikai gazdaság teljesítményét azzal a célkitűzéssel, hogy az elmúlt válság súlyosságának megítélése kellően objektív lehessen, legalább a fontosabb makrováltozók elmozdulásának nagyságrendje tekintetében. / === / Based on the empirical evidence accumulated until 2011, using official statistics from the OECD data bank and the US Commerce Department, the article addresses the question whether one can, or cannot, speak about generally observable recession/crisis patterns, such that were to be universally recognized in all major industrial countries (the G7). The answer to this question is a firm no. Changes and volatility in most major macroeconomic indicators such as output-gap, labor market distortions and large deviations from trend in consumption and in investment did all, respectively, exhibit wide differences in depth and width across the G7 countries. The large deviations in output-gaps and especially strong distortions in labor market inputs and hours per capita worked over the crisis months can hardly be explained by the existing model classes of DSGE and those of the real business cycle. Especially bothering are the difficulties in fitting the data into any established model whether business cycle or some other types, in which financial distress reduces economic activity. It is argued that standard business cycle models with financial market imperfections have no mechanism for generating deviation from standard theory, thus they do not shed light on the key factors underlying the 2007–2009 recession. That does not imply that the financial crisis is unimportant in understanding the recession, but it does indicate however, that we do not fully understand the channels through which financial distress reduced labor input. Long historical trends on the privately held portion of the federal debt in the US economy indicate that the standard macro proposition of public debt crowding out private investment and thus inhibiting growth, can be strongly challenged in so far as this ratio is neither a direct indicator of growth slowing down, nor for recession.

The non-linear acousto-mechanical and thermodynamic response of spherical absorbers to laser pulses of various temporal profiles

This study is to theoretically investigate shockwave and microbubble formation due to laser absorption by microparticles and nanoparticles. The initial motivation for this research was to understand the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for laser damage to the retina, as well as the predict threshold levels for damage for laser pulses with of progressively shorter durations. The strongest absorbers in the retina are micron size melanosomes, and their absorption of laser light causes them to accrue very high energy density. I theoretically investigate how this absorbed energy is transferred to the surrounding medium. For a wide range of conditions I calculate shockwave generation and bubble growth as a function of the three parameters; fluence, pulse duration and pulse shape. In order to develop a rigorous physical treatment, the governing equations for the behavior of an absorber and for the surrounding medium are derived. Shockwave theory is investigated and the conclusion is that a shock pressure explanation is likely to be the underlying physical cause of retinal damage at threshold fluences for sub-nanosecond pulses. The same effects are also expected for non-biological micro and nano absorbers. ^

Thermodynamic description and phase transformation of highly symmetrical monoatomic structures

Based on theoretical considerations an explanation for the temperature dependence of the thermal expansion and the bulk modulus is proposed. A new equation state is also derived. Additionally a physical explanation for the latent heat of fusion is presented. These theoretical predictions are tested against experiments on highly symmetrical monatomic structures. ^ The volume is not an independent variable and must be broken down into its fundamental components when the relationships to the pressure and temperature are defined. Using zero pressure and temperature reference frame, the initial parameters, volume at zero pressure and temperature[V°], bulk modulus at zero temperature [K°] and volume coefficient of thermal expansion at zero pressure[α°] are defined. ^ The new derived EoS is tested against the experiments on perovskite and epsilon iron. The Root-mean-square-deviations (RMSD) of the residuals of the molar volume, pressure, and temperature are in the range of the uncertainty of the experiments. ^ Separating the experiments into 200 K ranges, the new EoS was compared to the most widely used finite strain, interatomic potential, and empirical isothermal EoSs such as the Burch-Murnaghan, the Vinet, and the Roy-Roy respectively. Correlation coefficients, RMSD's of the residuals, and Akaike Information Criteria were used for evaluating the fitting. Based on these fitting parameters, the new p-V-T EoS is superior in every temperature range relative to the investigated conventional isothermal EoS. ^ The new EoS for epsilon iron reproduces the preliminary-reference earth-model (PREM) densities at 6100-7400 K indicating that the presence of light elements might not be necessary to explain the Earth's inner core densities. ^ It is suggested that the latent heat of fusion supplies the energy required for overcoming on the viscous drag resistance of the atoms. The calculated energies for melts formed from highly symmetrical packing arrangements correlate very well with experimentally determined latent heat values. ^ The optical investigation of carhonado-diamond is also part of the dissertation. The collected first complete infrared FTIR absorption spectra for carhonado-diamond confirm the interstellar origin for the most enigmatic diamonds known as carbonado. ^

Specific binding of the mammalian high mobility group protein AT-hook 2 to the minor groove of AT -rich DNAs: Thermodynamic and specificity studies

The mammalian high mobility group protein AT-hook 2 (HMGA2) is a small transcriptional factor involved in cell development and oncogenesis. It contains three "AT-hook" DNA binding domains, which specifically recognize the minor groove of AT-rich DNA sequences. It also has an acidic C-terminal motif. Previous studies showed that HMGA2 mediates all its biological effects through interactions with AT-rich DNA sequences in the promoter regions. In this dissertation, I used a variety of biochemical and biophysical methods to examine the physical properties of HMGA2 and to further investigate HMGA2's interactions with AT-rich DNA sequences. The following are three avenues perused in this study: (1) due to the asymmetrical charge distribution of HMGA2, I have developed a rapid procedure to purify HMGA2 in the milligram range. Preparation of large amounts of HMGA2 makes biophysical studies possible; (2) Since HMGA2 binds to different AT-rich sequences in the promoter regions, I used a combination of isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) and DNA UV melting experiment to characterize interactions of HMGA2 with poly(dA-dT) 2 and poly(dA)poly(dT). My results demonstrated that (i) each HMGA2 molecule binds to 15 AT bp; (ii) HMGA2 binds to both AT DNAs with very high affinity. However, the binding reaction of HMGA2 to poly(dA-dT) 2 is enthalpy-driven and the binding reaction of HMGA2 with poly(dA)poly(dT) is entropy-driven; (iii) the binding reactions are strongly depended on salt concentrations; (3) Previous studies showed that HMGA2 may have sequence specificity. In this study, I used a PCR-based SELEX procedure to examine the DNA binding specificity of HMGA2. Two consensus sequences for HMGA2 have been identified: 5'-ATATTCGCGAWWATT-3' and 5'-ATATTGCGCAWWATT-3', where W represents A or T. These consensus sequences have a unique feature: the first five base pairs are AT-rich, the middle four to five base pairs are GC-rich, and the last five to six base pairs are AT-rich. All three segments are critical for high affinity binding. Replacing either one of the AT-rich sequences to a non-AT-rich sequence causes at least 100-fold decrease in the binding affinity. Intriguingly, if the GC-segment is substituted by an AT-rich segment, the binding affinity of HMGA2 is reduced approximately 5-fold. Identification of the consensus sequences for HMGA2 represents an important step towards finding its binding sites within the genome.

Transportadores sólidos de oxigênio à base de níquel e cobre suportados em aluminatos para combustão do metano pela tecnologia de recirculação química

In recent years, solid carriers suitable oxygen have been developed for use in different chemical processes recirculation. The success of this technology is directly related to the chemical reactivity and the oxygen storage capacity of the carrier. Thus, research into the development of new materials that can be applied to the process becomes extremely important. Possible candidates are the carriers based on nickel and copper for presenting favorable thermodynamic properties. In this work, aluminates type MAl2O4 (M = Mg and Ca) and M0,9B0,1Al2O4 (B = Ni and Cu) that are used as supports were synthesized by combustion reactions assisted by microwave and calcined at 900°C/2h. Then, the carriers were impregnated with 10% (m/m) of nickel or copper, and subsequently calcined at 600°C/2h to obtain the solid oxygen carriers, which were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) Microscopy scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and temperature programmed reduction (TPR). Reactions simulating the combustion process by chemical recirculation were performed by cycles reduction/oxidation, in order to evaluate the reactivity of carriers. XRD analysis revealed diffraction peaks of the spinel type structures. In the doped substrates were verified the presence of secondary phases, suggesting that all the metal was incorporated into the spinel structure. In solid oxygen carriers, the NiO and CuO phases were observed after impregnation of active phases on different media. The results of evaluations of chemical cycles reduction/oxidation revealed that TSO's impregnated with nickel in various media were more active and are potential candidates for use in the chemical recirculation technology

Análise tribo-termodinâmica da aplicação de nanopartículas de Al2O3 como aditivo lubrificante em compressor hermético de refrigeração

The thermodynamic performance of a refrigeration system can be improved by reducing the compression work by a particular technique for a specific heat removal rate. This study examines the effect of small concentrations of Al2O3 (50 nm) nanoparticles dispersion in the mineral oil based lubricant on the: viscosity, thermal conductivity, and lubrication characteristics as well as the overall performance (based on the Second Law of Thermodynamics) of the refrigerating system using R134a or R600a as refrigerants. The study looked at the influences of variables: i) refrigerant charge (100, 110, 120 and 130 g), ii) rotational speed of the condenser blower (800 and 1100 RPM) and iii) nanoparticle concentration (0.1 and 0.5 g/l) on the system performance based on the Taguchi method in a matrix of L8 trials with the criterion "small irreversibility is better”. They were carried pulldown and cycling tests according to NBR 12866 and NBR 12869, respectively, to evaluate the operational parameters: on-time ratio, cycles per hour, suction and discharge pressures, oil sump temperature, evaporation and condensation temperatures, energy consumption at the set-point, total energy consumption and compressor power. In order to evaluate the nanolubricant characteristics, accelerated tests were performed in a HFRR bench. In each 60 minutes test with nanolubricants at a certain concentration (0, 0.1 and 0.5 g/l), with three replications, the sphere (diameter 6.00 ± 0.05 mm, Ra 0.05 ± 0.005 um, AISI 52100 steel, E = 210 GPa, HRC 62 ± 4) sliding on a flat plate (cast iron FC200, Ra <0.5 ± 0.005 um) in a reciprocating motion with amplitude of 1 mm, frequency 20 Hz and a normal load of 1,96 N. The friction coefficient signals were recorded by sensors coupled to the HFRR system. There was a trend commented bit in the literature: a nanolubricant viscosity reduction at the low nanoparticles concentrations. It was found the dominant trend in the literature: increased thermal conductivity with increasing nanoparticles mass fraction in the base fluid. Another fact observed is the significant thermal conductivity growth of nanolubricant with increasing temperature. The condenser fan rotational speed is the most influential parameter (46.192%) in the refrigerator performance, followed by R600a charge (38.606%). The Al2O3 nanoparticles concentration in the lubricant plays a minor influence on system performance, with 12.44%. The results of power consumption indicates that the nanoparticles addition in the lubricant (0.1 g/L), together with R600a, the refrigerator consumption is reduced of 22% with respect to R134a and POE lubricant. Only the Al2O3 nanoparticles addition in the lubricant results in a consumption reduction of about 5%.

Análise tribo-termodinâmica da aplicação de nanopartículas de Al2O3 como aditivo lubrificante em compressor hermético de refrigeração

The thermodynamic performance of a refrigeration system can be improved by reducing the compression work by a particular technique for a specific heat removal rate. This study examines the effect of small concentrations of Al2O3 (50 nm) nanoparticles dispersion in the mineral oil based lubricant on the: viscosity, thermal conductivity, and lubrication characteristics as well as the overall performance (based on the Second Law of Thermodynamics) of the refrigerating system using R134a or R600a as refrigerants. The study looked at the influences of variables: i) refrigerant charge (100, 110, 120 and 130 g), ii) rotational speed of the condenser blower (800 and 1100 RPM) and iii) nanoparticle concentration (0.1 and 0.5 g/l) on the system performance based on the Taguchi method in a matrix of L8 trials with the criterion "small irreversibility is better”. They were carried pulldown and cycling tests according to NBR 12866 and NBR 12869, respectively, to evaluate the operational parameters: on-time ratio, cycles per hour, suction and discharge pressures, oil sump temperature, evaporation and condensation temperatures, energy consumption at the set-point, total energy consumption and compressor power. In order to evaluate the nanolubricant characteristics, accelerated tests were performed in a HFRR bench. In each 60 minutes test with nanolubricants at a certain concentration (0, 0.1 and 0.5 g/l), with three replications, the sphere (diameter 6.00 ± 0.05 mm, Ra 0.05 ± 0.005 um, AISI 52100 steel, E = 210 GPa, HRC 62 ± 4) sliding on a flat plate (cast iron FC200, Ra <0.5 ± 0.005 um) in a reciprocating motion with amplitude of 1 mm, frequency 20 Hz and a normal load of 1,96 N. The friction coefficient signals were recorded by sensors coupled to the HFRR system. There was a trend commented bit in the literature: a nanolubricant viscosity reduction at the low nanoparticles concentrations. It was found the dominant trend in the literature: increased thermal conductivity with increasing nanoparticles mass fraction in the base fluid. Another fact observed is the significant thermal conductivity growth of nanolubricant with increasing temperature. The condenser fan rotational speed is the most influential parameter (46.192%) in the refrigerator performance, followed by R600a charge (38.606%). The Al2O3 nanoparticles concentration in the lubricant plays a minor influence on system performance, with 12.44%. The results of power consumption indicates that the nanoparticles addition in the lubricant (0.1 g/L), together with R600a, the refrigerator consumption is reduced of 22% with respect to R134a and POE lubricant. Only the Al2O3 nanoparticles addition in the lubricant results in a consumption reduction of about 5%.

Cumulative live birth rates after one or more complete cycles of IVF : a population-based study of linked cycle data from 178 898 women

© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Cycles of passive versus active diapirism recorded along an exposed salt wall

Acknowledgements GIA is grateful for funding from the Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland that enabled fieldwork for this project. RW was supported by the Israel Science Foundation (ISF grant No. 1245/11). SM was supported by the Israel Science Foundation (ISF grant No. 1436/14). We would like to thank Chris Talbot and Yohann Poprawski for careful and constructive reviews. The authors appreciate the help of Nicolas Waldmann in precisely locating the positons of dated unconformities.

Aspects of Motives: Finite-dimensionality, Chow-Kunneth Decompositions and Intersections of Cycles

This thesis analyzes the Chow motives of 3 types of smooth projective varieties: the desingularized elliptic self fiber product, the Fano surface of lines on a cubic threefold and an ample hypersurface of an Abelian variety. For the desingularized elliptic self fiber product, we use an isotypic decomposition of the motive to deduce the Murre conjectures. We also prove a result about the intersection product. For the Fano surface of lines, we prove the finite-dimensionality of the Chow motive. Finally, we prove that an ample hypersurface on an Abelian variety possesses a Chow-Kunneth decomposition for which a motivic version of the Lefschetz hyperplane theorem holds.

Development and Application of Covalent-Labeling Strategies for the Large-Scale Thermodynamic Analysis of Protein Folding and Ligand Binding

Thermodynamic stability measurements on proteins and protein-ligand complexes can offer insights not only into the fundamental properties of protein folding reactions and protein functions, but also into the development of protein-directed therapeutic agents to combat disease. Conventional calorimetric or spectroscopic approaches for measuring protein stability typically require large amounts of purified protein. This requirement has precluded their use in proteomic applications. Stability of Proteins from Rates of Oxidation (SPROX) is a recently developed mass spectrometry-based approach for proteome-wide thermodynamic stability analysis. Since the proteomic coverage of SPROX is fundamentally limited by the detection of methionine-containing peptides, the use of tryptophan-containing peptides was investigated in this dissertation. A new SPROX-like protocol was developed that measured protein folding free energies using the denaturant dependence of the rate at which globally protected tryptophan and methionine residues are modified with dimethyl (2-hydroxyl-5-nitrobenzyl) sulfonium bromide and hydrogen peroxide, respectively. This so-called Hybrid protocol was applied to proteins in yeast and MCF-7 cell lysates and achieved a ~50% increase in proteomic coverage compared to probing only methionine-containing peptides. Subsequently, the Hybrid protocol was successfully utilized to identify and quantify both known and novel protein-ligand interactions in cell lysates. The ligands under study included the well-known Hsp90 inhibitor geldanamycin and the less well-understood omeprazole sulfide that inhibits liver-stage malaria. In addition to protein-small molecule interactions, protein-protein interactions involving Puf6 were investigated using the SPROX technique in comparative thermodynamic analyses performed on wild-type and Puf6-deletion yeast strains. A total of 39 proteins were detected as Puf6 targets and 36 of these targets were previously unknown to interact with Puf6. Finally, to facilitate the SPROX/Hybrid data analysis process and minimize human errors, a Bayesian algorithm was developed for transition midpoint assignment. In summary, the work in this dissertation expanded the scope of SPROX and evaluated the use of SPROX/Hybrid protocols for characterizing protein-ligand interactions in complex biological mixtures.

Systematic characterization of thermodynamic and dynamical phase behavior in systems with short-ranged attraction

In this paper we demonstrate the feasibility and utility of an augmented version of the Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo method for computing the phase behavior of systems with strong, extremely short-ranged attractions. For generic potential shapes, this approach allows for the investigation of narrower attractive widths than those previously reported. Direct comparison to previous self-consistent Ornstein-Zernike approximation calculations is made. A preliminary investigation of out-of-equilibrium behavior is also performed. Our results suggest that the recent observations of stable cluster phases in systems without long-ranged repulsions are intimately related to gas-crystal and metastable gas-liquid phase separation.

(Table S1) Diatom abundance according to ice cycles in ANDRILL AND1-1B drill core

The influence of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean on Late Pliocene global climate reconstructions has remained ambiguous due to a lack of well-dated Antarctic-proximal, paleoenvironmental records. Here we present ice sheet, sea-surface temperature, and sea ice reconstructions from the ANDRILL AND-1B sediment core recovered from beneath the Ross Ice Shelf. We provide evidence for a major expansion of an ice sheet in the Ross Sea that began at ~3.3 Ma, followed by a coastal sea surface temperature cooling of ~2.5°C, a stepwise expansion of sea ice, and polynya-style deep mixing in the Ross Sea between 3.3 and 2.5 Ma. The intensification of Antarctic cooling resulted in strengthened westerly winds and invigorated ocean circulation. The associated northward migration of Southern Ocean fronts has been linked with reduced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation by restricting surface water connectivity between the ocean basins, with implications for heat transport to the high latitudes of the North Atlantic. While our results do not exclude low-latitude mechanisms as drivers for Pliocene cooling, they indicate an additional role played by southern high-latitude cooling during development of the bipolar world.

Diatom-bound N isotope records over the last two glacial cycles in sediment core PS75/072-4

In a sediment core from the Pacific sector of the Antarctic Zone (AZ) of the Southern Ocean, we report diatom-bound N isotope (d15Ndb) records for total recoverable diatoms and two distinct diatom assemblages (pennate and centric rich). These data indicate tight coupling between the degree of nitrate consumption and Antarctic climate across the last two glacial cycles, with d15Ndb (and thus the degree of nitrate consumption) increasing at each major Antarctic cooling event. Coupled with evidence from opal- and barium-based proxies for reduced export production during ice ages, the d15Ndb increases point to ice age reductions in the supply of deep ocean-sourced nitrate to the AZ surface. The two diatom assemblages and species abundance data indicate that the d15Ndb changes are not the result of changing species composition. The pennate and centric assemblage d15Ndb records indicate similar changes but with a significant decline in their difference during peak ice ages. A tentative seasonality-based interpretation of the centric-to-pennate d15Ndb difference suggests that late summer surface waters became nitrate free during the peak glacials.