An ultra-short-term wind power prediction method using “offline classification and optimization, online model matching” based on time series features

The applicability of ultra-short-term wind power prediction (USTWPP) models is reviewed. The USTWPP method proposed extracts featrues from historical data of wind power time series (WPTS), and classifies every short WPTS into one of several different subsets well defined by stationary patterns. All the WPTS that cannot match any one of the stationary patterns are sorted into the subset of nonstationary pattern. Every above WPTS subset needs a USTWPP model specially optimized for it offline. For on-line application, the pattern of the last short WPTS is recognized, then the corresponding prediction model is called for USTWPP. The validity of the proposed method is verified by simulations.

Short-Term Reversals: The Effects of Past Returns and Institutional Exits

Price declines over the previous quarter lead to stronger reversals across the subsequent two months. We explain this finding based on the dual notions that liquidity provision can influence reversals, and agents that act as de facto liquidity providers may be less active in past losers. Supporting these observations, we find that active institutions participate less in losing stocks, and that the magnitude of monthly return reversals fluctuates with changes in the number of active institutional investors. Thus, we argue that fluctuations in liquidity provision with past return performance accounts for the link between return reversals and past returns.

Evolution of microstructure and changes of mechanical properties of CLAM steel after long-term aging

The China Low Activation Martensitic (CLAM) steel has been developed as a candidate structural material for future fusion reactors. It is essential to investigate the evolution of microstructure and changes of mechanical properties of CLAM steel during thermal exposure. In this study, the long-term thermal aging of the CLAM steel has been carried out in air at 600 °C and 650 °C for 1100 h, 3000 h and 5000 h. The microstructural evolution with aging time was studied, including characteristics of the growth of M23C6 carbides and the formation of Laves-phase precipitates as well as the evolved subgrains. The microstructural evolution leads to the changes of mechanical properties of the CLAM steel. The Ductile–Brittle Transition Temperature (DBTT) increases significantly during the thermal aging, which is related to the formation of Laves-phase in the steel matrix. The possible mechanism of stabilizing microstructure during the thermal exposure has been analyzed based on the interaction between M23C6 carbides and subgrain boundaries.

Microstructural evolution and mechanical properties of short-term thermally exposed 9/12Cr heat-resistant steels

The microstructural evolution during short-term (up to 3000 hours) thermal exposure of three 9/12Cr heat-resistant steels was studied, as well as the mechanical properties after exposure. The tempered martensitic lath structure, as well as the precipitation of carbide and MX type carbonitrides in the steel matrix, was stable after 3000 hours of exposure at 873 K (600 °C). A microstructure observation showed that during the short-term thermal exposure process, the change of mechanical properties was caused mainly by the formation and growth of Laves-phase precipitates in the steels. On thermal exposure, with an increase of cobalt and tungsten contents, cobalt could promote the segregation of tungsten along the martensite lath to form Laves phase, and a large size and high density of Laves-phase precipitates along the grain boundaries could lead to the brittle intergranular fracture of the steels.

I can hear once more: The role of the Anaesthetic Nurse specialist in Cochlear implantation for people with long term deafness

This paper examines the role of the Anaesthetic Nuse Specialist(ANS) in the context of innovative cochlear implant surgery which restores hearing to those with long term deafness. The specific focus is patient centered care during the long surgery under local anaestha when the patient is awake.
It is crucial during this surgery that the patient remains still, relaxed and calm, the ANS has been particularly creative using communication cards and tablets to allow patients to write questions and the nurse to answer. The writers capture the unique moment when someone with long term hearing can hear, and the ensuing emotion from the patient and theatre team.

Long-Term Follow-Up of a Large Active Surveillance Cohort of Patients With Prostate Cancer

PURPOSE: Active surveillance is increasingly accepted as a treatment option for favorable-risk prostate cancer. Long-term follow-up has been lacking. In this study, we report the long-term outcome of a large active surveillance protocol in men with favorable-risk prostate cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a prospective single-arm cohort study carried out at a single academic health sciences center, 993 men with favorable- or intermediate-risk prostate cancer were managed with an initial expectant approach. Intervention was offered for a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) doubling time of less than 3 years, Gleason score progression, or unequivocal clinical progression. Main outcome measures were overall and disease-specific survival, rate of treatment, and PSA failure rate in the treated patients.

RESULTS: Among the 819 survivors, the median follow-up time from the first biopsy is 6.4 years (range, 0.2 to 19.8 years). One hundred forty-nine (15%) of 993 patients died, and 844 patients are alive (censored rate, 85.0%). There were 15 deaths (1.5%) from prostate cancer. The 10- and 15-year actuarial cause-specific survival rates were 98.1% and 94.3%, respectively. An additional 13 patients (1.3%) developed metastatic disease and are alive with confirmed metastases (n = 9) or have died of other causes (n = 4). At 5, 10, and 15 years, 75.7%, 63.5%, and 55.0% of patients remained untreated and on surveillance. The cumulative hazard ratio for nonprostate-to-prostate cancer mortality was 9.2:1.

CONCLUSION: Active surveillance for favorable-risk prostate cancer is feasible and seems safe in the 15-year time frame. In our cohort, 2.8% of patients have developed metastatic disease, and 1.5% have died of prostate cancer. This mortality rate is consistent with expected mortality in favorable-risk patients managed with initial definitive intervention.

Physical activity and sport participation for people with long-term illness

Purpose:Physical activity is recommended for optimal prevention of cardiovascular disease(CVD) and participation in sport is associated with improved well-being. However, people with long-standing illness/disability are less likely to participate in sport than others. Evidence of factors associated with their participation is limited and the best approach to encourage participation is unknown. This study aimed to identify sport participation levels and their correlates, among adults with long standing illness/disability in Northern Ireland, where CVD prevalence is high. Method:Using routinely collected data in annual surveys of population samples from 2007 to 2011, descriptive statistics were derived. Chi-squared tests were used to compare characteristics of those with a long-term illness/disability and those without long-term health problems. Uni-variate binary regression analysis for the whole sample and those with a long-standing illness/disability, using sport participation as the dependent variable, was performed and variables with a p-value of 0.1 or less were taken into a multi-variate analysis. Results:The sample included 13,683 adults; 3550(26%) reported having long-term illness/disability. Fewer of those with, than without, long-term illness/disability reported sport participation in the previous year (868/3550(24.5%) v 5615/10133(55.6%)). Multi-variate analysis showed that, for those with long-standing illness/disability, being single and less socio-economically deprived correlated positively with sport participation. For both those with long-standing illness/disability and the full sample, sport participation correlated positively with being male, aged <56 years, access to a household car/van, sports club membership, health ‘fairly good’ or ‘good’ in the previous year, doing paid/unpaid work, and living in an urban location. For the full sample but not those with long-standing illness/disability, sport participation correlated positively with being a non-smoker, higher educational status and personal internet access. Of note, personal internet access was less for those with, than without, long-term illness/disability (41% v 70%). Conclusions:Efforts to promote physical activity in sport for those with long-standing illness/disability should target older people, married females, those who live rurally, and those who are socio-economically deprived and report their health as ‘not good’. Implementation of initiatives should not rely on the internet, to which these people may not have ready access, to help support their sport participation and physical activity in optimal CVD prevention.