An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Coastal and Human Settlements and Health Sectors in Guyana

This report analyses the agriculture, coastal and human settlements and health sectors in Guyana to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Guyana. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help bring the Caribbean sub-region closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining national and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050 (agriculture and health sectors) and 2100 (coastal and human settlements sector). An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on three leading sub-sectors namely: sugar-cane, rice-paddy and fisheries. In estimating costs, the sugar sub-sector is projected to experience losses under A2 between US$ 144 million (at 4% discount rate) and US$300 million (1% rate); comparative statistics for rice are US$795 million and US$1577 million, respectively; while for fisheries, the results show that losses range from US$15 million (4% rate) and US$34 million (1% rate). In general, under the B2 scenarios, there are gains for sugar up to 2030 under all three discount rates while for rice the performance is somewhat better with gains realized under all three discount rates up to 2040. For fisheries, gains are forecasted under all three rates up to 2050, following marginal losses to 2020. In terms of the benefit-cost analysis conducted on selected adaptation measures under the A2 scenario, there were net benefits for all three commodities under all three discount rates. For the sugar-cane sub-sector these are: drainage and irrigation upgrade, purchase of new machinery for planting and harvesting, developing and replanting climate tolerant sugar-cane. The rice-paddy sub-sector will benefit from adaptive strategies, which include maintenance of drainage and irrigation systems, research and development, as well as education and training. Adaptation in the fisheries sub-sector must include measures such as, mangrove development and restoration and public education. The analysis of the coastal and human settlements sector has shown that based upon exposed assets and population, SLR can be classified as having the potential to create catastrophic conditions in Guyana. The main contributing factor is the concentration of socioeconomic infrastructure along the coastline in vulnerable areas.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture Sector in Jamaica

The agricultural sector‟s contribution to GDP and to exports in Jamaica has been declining with the post-war development process that has led to the differentiation of the economy. In 2010, the sector contributed 5.8% of GDP, and 3% to the exports (of goods), but with 36% of employment, it continues to be a major employer. With a little less than half of the population living in rural communities, agricultural activities, and their linkages with other economic activities, continue to play an important role as a source of livelihoods, and by extension, the economic development of the country. Sugar cane cultivation has, with the exception of a couple of decades in the twentieth century when it was superseded by bananas, dominated the agricultural export sector for centuries as the source of the raw materials for the manufacture of sugar for export. In 2005, sugar cane itself accounted for 6.4% of the sector‟s contribution to GDP, and 52% of the contribution of agricultural exports to GDP. Production for the domestic market has long been the larger subsector, organized around the production of root crops, especially yams, vegetables and condiments. To analyse the potential impact of climate change on the agricultural sector, this study selected three important crops for detailed examination. In particular, the study selected sugar cane because of its overwhelming importance to the export subsector of agriculture, and yam and escallion for both their contribution to the domestic subsector as well as the preeminent role yams and escallion play in the economic activities of the communities in the hills of central Jamaica, and the plains of the southwest respectively. As with other studies in this project, the methodology adopted was to compare the estimated values of output on the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios with the value of output on a “baseline” Business As Usual (BAU), and then estimate the net benefits of investment in the relevant to climate change for the selected crops. The A2 and B2 Scenarios were constructed by applying forecasts of changes in temperature and precipitation generated by INSMET from ECHAM inspired climate models. The BAU “baseline” was a linear projection of the historical trends of yields for each crop. Linear models of yields were estimated for each crop with particular attention to the influence of the two climate variables – temperature and precipitation. These models were then used to forecast yields up to 2050 (table1). These yields were then used to estimate the value of output of the selected crop, as well as the contribution to overall GDP, on each Scenario. The analysis suggested replanting sugar cane with heat resistant varieties, rehabilitating irrigation systems where they existed, and establishing technologically appropriate irrigation systems where they were not for the three selected crops.

Os canavieiros de Rio da Pedras - SP: vida e trabalho

Pós-graduação em Serviço Social - FCHS