Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries

Growing human populations and changing dietary preferences are increasing global demands for fish, adding pressure to concerns over fisheries sustainability. Here we develop and link models of physical, biological and human responses to climate change in 67 marine national exclusive economic zones, which yield approximately 60% of global fish catches, to project climate change yield impacts in countries with different dependencies on marine fisheries. Predicted changes in fish production indicate increased productivity at high latitudes and decreased productivity at low/mid latitudes, with considerable regional variations. With few exceptions, increases and decreases in fish production potential by 2050 are estimated to be <10% (mean C3.4%) from present yields. Among the nations showing a high dependency on fisheries, climate change is predicted to increase productive potential in West Africa and decrease it in South and Southeast Asia. Despite projected human population increases and assuming that per capita fish consumption rates will be maintained1, ongoing technological development in the aquaculture industry suggests that projected global fish demands in 2050 could be met, thus challenging existing predictions of inevitable shortfalls in fish supply by the mid-twenty-first century. This conclusion, however, is contingent on successful implementation of strategies for sustainable harvesting and effective distribution of wild fish products from nations and regions with a surplus to those with a deficit. Changes in management effectiveness2 and trade practices5 will remain the main influence on realized gains or losses in global fish production.

Genomic Sequence and Analysis of EhV-99B1, a New Coccolithovirus from the Norwegian Fjords

Coccolithoviruses are giant dsDNA viruses that infect Emiliania huxleyi, the most ubiquitous marine microalga. Here, we present the genome of the latest coccolithovirus strain to be sequenced, EhV-99B1, and compare it with two other coccolithovirus genomes (EhV-86 and EhV-163). EhV-99B1 shares a pairwise nucleotide identity of 98% with EhV-163 (the two strains were isolated from the same Norwegian fjord but in different years), and just 96.5% with EhV-86 (isolated in the same spring as EhV-99B1 but in the English Channel). We confirmed and extended the list of relevant genomic differences between these EhVs from the Norwegian fjord and EhVs from the English Channel, namely the removal/insertions of: a phosphate permease, an endonuclease, a transposase, and two specific tRNAs. As a whole, this study provided new clues and insights into the diversity and mechanisms driving the evolution of these large oceanic viruses, in particular those processes involving selfish genetic elements.

Modeling marine ecosystem responses to global climate change: Where are we now and where should we be going?

Modeling of global climate change is moving from global circulation model (GCM)-type projections with coupled biogeochemical models to projections of ecological responses, including food web and upper trophic levels. Marine and coastal ecosystems are highly susceptible to the impacts of global climate change and also produce significant ecosystem services. The effects of global climate change on coastal and marine ecosystems involve a much wider array of effects than the usual temperature, sea level rise, and precipitation. This paper is an overview for a collection of 12 papers that examined various aspects of global climate change on marine ecosystems and comprise this special issue. We summarized the major features of the models and analyses in the papers to determine general patterns. A wide range of ecosystems were simulated using a diverse set of modeling approaches. Models were either 3-dimensional or used a few spatial boxes, and responses to global climate change were mostly expressed as changes from a baseline condition. Three issues were identified from the across-model comparison: (a) lack of standardization of climate change scenarios, (b) the prevalence of site-specific and even unique models for upper trophic levels, and (c) emphasis on hypothesis evaluation versus forecasting. We discuss why these issues are important as global climate change assessment continues to progress up the food chain, and, when possible, offer some initial steps for going forward.

Transregional linkages in the North-Eastern Atlantic - An ‘end-to-end ’ analysis of pelagic ecosystems

This review examines interregional linkages and gives an overview perspective on marine ecosystem functioning in the north-eastern Atlantic. It is based on three of the 'systems' considered by the European Network of Excellence for Ocean Ecosystems Analysis (EUR-OC EANS was established in 2004 under the European Framework VI funding programme to promote integration of marine ecological research within Europe), the Arctic and Nordic Seas, North Atlantic shelf seas and North Atlantic. The three systems share common open boundaries and the transport of water, heat, nutrients and particulates across these boundaries modifies local processes. Consistent with the EUR-OC EANS concept of 'end-to-end' analyses of marine food webs, the review takes an integrated approach linking ocean physics, lower trophic levels and working up the food web to top predators such as marine mammals. We begin with an overview of the regions focusing on the major physical patterns and their implications for the microbial community, phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish and top predators. Human-induced links between the regional systems are then considered and finally possible changes in the regional linkages over the next century are discussed. Because of the scale of potential impacts of climate change, this issue is considered in a separate section. The review demonstrates that the functioning of the ecosystems in each of the regions cannot be considered in isolation and the role of the atmosphere and ocean currents in linking the North Atlantic Ocean, North Atlantic shelf seas and the Arctic and Nordic Seas must be taken into account. Studying the North Atlantic and associated shelf seas as an integrated 'basin-scale' system will be a key challenge for the early twenty-first century. This requires a multinational approach that should lead to improved ecosystem-based approaches to conservation of natural resources, the maintenance of biodiversity, and a better understanding of the key role of the north-eastern Atlantic in the global carbon cycle.

Spatial demography of Calanus finmarchicus in the Irminger Sea

Continuous Plankton Recorder data suggest that the Irminger Sea supports a major proportion of the surface-living population of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus in the northern North Atlantic, but there have been few studies of its population dynamics in the region. In this paper, we document the seasonal changes in the demographic structure of C finmarchicus in the Irminger Sea from a field programme during 2001/2002, and the associations between its developmental stages and various apparent bio-physical zones. Overwintering stages were found widely at depth (>500 m) across the Irminger Sea, and surviving females were widely distributed in the surface waters the following spring. However, recruitment of the subsequent generation was concentrated around the fringes of the Irminger Sea basin, along the edges of the Irminger and East Greenland Currents, and not in the central basin. In late summer animals were found descending back to overwintering depths in the Central Irminger Sea. The key factors dictating this pattern of recruitment appear to be (a) the general circulation regime, (b) predation on eggs in the spring, possibly by the surviving GO stock, and (c) mortality of first feeding naupliar stages in the central basin where food concentrations appear to be low throughout the year. We compared the demographic patterns in 2001/2002 with observations from the only previous major survey in 1963 and with data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) surveys. In both previous data sets, the basic structure of GO ascent from the central basin and G1 recruitment around the fringes was a robust feature, suggesting that it is a recurrent phenomenon. The Irminger Sea is a complex mixing zone between polar and Atlantic water masses, and it has also been identified as a site of sporadic deep convection. The physical oceanographic characteristics of the region are therefore potentially sensitive to climate fluctuations. Despite this, the abundance of C finmarchicus in the region, as measured by the CPR surveys, appears not to have responded to climate factors linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, in contrast with the stocks in eastern Atlantic areas. We speculate that this may because biological factors (production and mortality), rather than transport processes are the key factors affecting the population dynamics in the Irminger Sea. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sedimentation of acantharian cysts in the Iceland Basin: Strontium as a ballast for deep ocean particle flux, and implications for acantharian reproductive strategies

Acantharian cysts were discovered in sediment trap samples from spring 2007 at 2000 m in the Iceland Basin. Although these single-celled organisms contribute to particulate organic matter flux in the upper mesopelagic, their contribution to bathypelagic particle flux has previously been found negligible. Four time-series sediment traps were deployed and all collected acantharian cysts, which are reproductive structures. Across all traps, cysts contributed on average 3-22%, and 4―24% of particulate organic carbon and nitrogen (POC and PON) flux, respectively, during three separate collection intervals (the maximum contribution in any one trap was 48% for POC and 59% for PON). Strontium (Sr) flux during these 6 weeks reached 3 mg m―2 d―1. The acantharian celestite (SrSO4) skeleton clearly does not always dissolve in the mesopelagic as often thought, and their cysts can contribute significantly to particle flux at bathypelagic depths during specific flux events. Their large size (∼ I mm) and mineral ballast result in a sinking rate of ∼ 500 m d―1; hence, they reach the bathypelagic before dissolving. Our findings are consistent with a vertical profile of salinity-normalized Sr concentration in the Iceland Basin, which shows a maximum at 1700 m. Profiles of salinity-normalized Sr concentration in the subarctic Pacific reach maxima at ≤ 1500 m, suggesting that Acantharia might contribute to the bathypelagic particle flux there as well. We hypothesize that Acantharia at high latitudes use rapid, deep sedimentation of reproductive cysts during phytoplankton blooms so that juveniles can exploit the large quantity of organic matter that sinks rapidly to the deep sea following a bloom.

Contributions to the bryological flora of the tropical and subtropical forests from the Argentina (Bryophyta, Musci).

The authors present here a list of 32 mosses belonging to 15 families: Brachytheciaceae, Cryphaeaceae, Entodontaceae, Hedwigiaceae, Hypnaceae, Leptodontaceae, Meteoriaceae, Neckeraceae, Pilotrichaceae, Polytrichaceae, Pterobryaceae, Racopilaceae, Rigodiaceae, Stereophyllaceae, and Trachypodaceae, all collected in the mountainous forests of the Yungas of the NW of the Argentina (Jujuy, Salta, Catamarca and Tucumán provinces), and also in the rainforests from the NE of the country (Misiones province). Eight species: Atrichum polycarpum, Chrysohypnum elegantulum, Pilosium chlorophyllum, Pilotrichella flexilis, Porotrichodendron lindigii, Pseudotrachypus martinicensis, Steerecleus scariosus, and Thamnobryum fasciculatum are new records for the bryologic flora from Argentina. Braunia imberbis and Squamidium brasiliense are two new records for the bryophytic flora of the Catamarca province; Porotrichodendron superbum is new for the Salta province, while Forsstroemia coronata is the first record for the Catamarca and Jujuy provinces. Aerolindigia capillacea, Braunia reflexifolia, Chryso-hypnum diminutivum, Meteorium deppei and Meteoridium remotifolium are five new citations for the Jujuy province, and Schoenobryum concavifolium is new for the bryophytic flora of the Misiones province. Many studied species occur more frequently in the Yungas than in the NE rainforests; others show separated distribution but live in both areas, the Yungas and Paranaense area, and others are more or less restricted to the Paranaense rainforest of the NE of Argentina. The taxonomy of species is updated, and comments are included on bibliographical precedents, ecology and chorology of each taxon.

Heterogeneity of impacts of high CO2 on the North Western European Shelf

The increase in atmospheric CO2 is a dual threat to the marine environment: from one side it drives climate change, leading to modifications in water temperature, circulation patterns and stratification intensity; on the other side it causes a decrease in marine pH (ocean acidification, or OA) due to the increase in dissolved CO2. Assessing the combined impact of climate change and OA on marine ecosystems is a challenging task. The response of the ecosystem to a single driver can be highly variable and remains still uncertain; additionally the interaction between these can be either synergistic or antagonistic. In this work we use the coupled oceanographic–ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM driven by climate forcing to study the interaction between climate change and OA. We focus in particular on carbonate chemistry, primary and secondary production. The model has been run in three different configurations in order to assess separately the impacts of climate change on net primary production and of OA on the carbonate chemistry, which have been strongly supported by scientific literature, from the impact of biological feedbacks of OA on the ecosystem, whose uncertainty still has to be well constrained. The global mean of the projected decrease of pH at the end of the century is about 0.27 pH units, but the model shows significant interaction among the drivers and high variability in the temporal and spatial response. As a result of this high variability, critical tipping point can be locally and/or temporally reached: e.g. undersaturation with respect to aragonite is projected to occur in the deeper part of the central North Sea during summer. Impacts of climate change and of OA on primary and secondary production may have similar magnitude, compensating in some area and exacerbating in others.

Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean

Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and regional models, imply the need for caution when extending these considerations into higher trophic levels.

Modelling a light-driven phytoplankton succession

We used a numerical model to investigate if and to what extent cellular photoprotective capacity accounts for succession and vertical distribution of marine phytoplankton species/groups. A model describing xanthophyll photoprotective activity in phytoplankton has been implemented in the European Regional Sea Ecosystem Model and applied at the station L4 in the Western English Channel. Primary producers were subdivided into three phytoplankton functional types defined in terms of their capacity to acclimate to different light-specific environments: low light (LL-type), high light (HL-type) and variable light (VL-type) adapted species. The LL-type is assumed to have low cellular level of xanthophyll-cycling pigments (PX) relative to the modelled photosynthetically active pigments (chlorophyll and fucoxanthin (FUCO) = PSP). The HL-type has high PX content relative to PSP while VL-type presents an intermediate PX to PSP ratio. Furthermore, the VL-type is capable of reversibly converting FUCO to PX and synthesizing new PX under high-light stress. In order to reproduce phytoplankton community succession with each of the three groups being dominant in different periods of the year, we had also to assume reduced grazing pressure on HL-adapted species. Model simulations realistically reproduce the observed seasonal patterns of pigments and nutrients highlighting the reasonability of the underpinning assumptions. Our model suggests that pigment-mediated photophysiology plays a primary role in determining the evolution of marine phytoplankton communities in the winter-spring period corresponding to the shoaling of the mixed layer and the increase of light intensity. Grazing selectivity however contributes to the phytoplankton community composition in summer.

Reduction in photosystem II efficiency during a virus-controlled Emiliania huxleyi bloom

During viral infection of Emiliania huxleyi, laboratory studies have shown that photo-system (PS) II efficiency declines during the days post-infection and is thought to be associated with viral-induced interruption of electron transport rates between photosystems. However,measuring the impact of viral infection on PSII function in E. huxleyi populations from natural,taxonomically diverse phytoplankton communities is difficult, and whether this phenomenon occurs in nature is presently unknown. Here, chlorophyll fluorescence analysis was used to assess changes in PSII efficiency throughout an E. huxleyi bloom during a mesocosm experiment off the coast of Norway. Specifically, we aimed to determine whether a measurable suppression of the efficiency of PSII photochemistry could be observed due to viral infection of the natural E. huxleyi populations. During the major infection period prior to bloom collapse, there was a significant reduction in PSII efficiency with an average decrease in maximum PSII photochemical efficiency (Fv/Fm) of 17% and a corresponding 75% increase in maximum PSII effective absorption cross section(σPSII); this was concurrent with a significant decrease in E. huxleyi growth rates and an increase in E. huxleyi virus (EhV) production. As E. huxleyi populations dominated the phytoplankton community and potentially contributed up to 100% of the chlorophyll a pool, we believe that the variable chlorophyll fluorescence signal measured during this period was derived predominantly from E. huxleyi and, thus, reflects changes occurring within E. huxleyi cells. This is the first demonstration of suppression of PSII photochemistry occurring during viral infection of natural coccolithophore populations.