Simulations of phytoplankton dynamics in El Gergal Reservoir, Southern Spain (PROTECH)

The Mediterranean region is characterised by a variable climate with most of the rain falling during the winter and frequent summer droughts. Such warm, dry periods are ideal for the growth of large algal blooms that often consist of potentially toxic Cyanobacteria. This makes the management of water for human use particularly challenging in such a climate and it is important to understand how such blooms can be avoided or at least be reduced in size. PROTECH (Phytoplankton RespOnses To Environmental CHange) is a model that simulates the dynamics of different species of phytoplankton populations in lakes and reservoirs. Its distinct advantage over similar models is its ability to simulate the relative composition of the algal flora, allowing both quantitative and qualitative conclusions to be drawn e.g. whether Cyanobacteria could be a potential problem. PROTECH has been applied primarily to lakes and reservoirs in northern Europe. Recently, however, the model has been applied to water bodies in lower latitudes, including Australia to a water supply reservoir in the south of Spain, El Gergal. El Gergal is the last in a chain of reservoirs that supply water to the city of Seville. It was brought into service in April 1979 and has a maximum storage volume of 35 000 000 m3. This article summarises the application of PROTECH in order to simulate the following problems: • the effect of a large influx of Ceratium biomass into El Gergal from another reservoir • the effect of using alternative water sources instead of the Guadalquivir River (used occasionally to raise water levels in El Gergal) • the effect of installing tertiary sewage treatment on the Cala River • the effect of simulated drought conditions on phytoplankton in the reservoir.

The Permanent Okavango River Basin Water Commission annual report 2009

First published annual report of OKACOM, covering first period of Sida-funded three year workplan from 2007 until 2009, during which the Secretariat was established. (PDF contains 32 pages)

The Okavango River Basin Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis: reimagining the river

OKACOM's Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis study used integrated flows analysis to develop scenarios for possible developments in the Okavango River Basin. (PDF contains 2 pages)

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Moment Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

There is a sparse number of credible source models available from large-magnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source model generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field observations to generate stochastic source models for large-magnitude (Mw 6.0-8.0) strike-slip earthquakes. The algorithm is validated through a statistical comparison of synthetic ground motion histories from a stochastically generated source model for a magnitude 7.90 earthquake and a kinematic finite-source inversion of an equivalent magnitude past earthquake on a geometrically similar fault. The synthetic dataset comprises of three-component ground motion waveforms, computed at 636 sites in southern California, for ten hypothetical rupture scenarios (five hypocenters, each with two rupture directions) on the southern San Andreas fault. A similar validation exercise is conducted for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, the lower magnitude limit for the algorithm. Additionally, ground motions from the Mw7.9 earthquake simulations are compared against predictions by the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA relation as well as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake. The algorithm is then applied to generate fifty source models for a hypothetical magnitude 7.9 earthquake originating at Parkfield, with rupture propagating from north to south (towards Wrightwood), similar to the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Using the spectral element method, three-component ground motion waveforms are computed in the Los Angeles basin for each scenario earthquake and the sensitivity of ground shaking intensity to seismic source parameters (such as the percentage of asperity area relative to the fault area, rupture speed, and risetime) is studied.

Under plausible San Andreas fault earthquakes in the next 30 years, modeled using the stochastic source algorithm, the performance of two 18-story steel moment frame buildings (UBC 1982 and 1997 designs) in southern California is quantified. The approach integrates rupture-to-rafters simulations into the PEER performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Using stochastic sources and computational seismic wave propagation, three-component ground motion histories at 636 sites in southern California are generated for sixty scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The ruptures, with moment magnitudes in the range of 6.0-8.0, are assumed to occur at five locations on the southern section of the fault. Two unilateral rupture propagation directions are considered. The 30-year probabilities of all plausible ruptures in this magnitude range and in that section of the fault, as forecast by the United States Geological Survey, are distributed among these 60 earthquakes based on proximity and moment release. The response of the two 18-story buildings hypothetically located at each of the 636 sites under 3-component shaking from all 60 events is computed using 3-D nonlinear time-history analysis. Using these results, the probability of the structural response exceeding Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life-Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP) performance levels under San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next thirty years is evaluated.

Furthermore, the conditional and marginal probability distributions of peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD) in Los Angeles and surrounding basins due to earthquakes occurring primarily on the mid-section of southern San Andreas fault are determined using Bayesian model class identification. Simulated ground motions at sites within 55-75km from the source from a suite of 60 earthquakes (Mw 6.0 − 8.0) primarily rupturing mid-section of San Andreas fault are considered for PGV and PGD data.

Some abundant Tendipedid species (Diptera, Tendipedidae) of the Amu-Darya drainage basin. Acalcarella shilova, gen.n. only [Translation from: Ent.Obozr. 34 313-322, 1955]

This document is a partial translation of taxonomic notes on two Diptera species (Acalcarella Shilova, Acalcarrella nucus) which were abundant in a survey of Tendipedid species (Diptera, Tendipedidae) of the Amu Darya drainage basin. These taxonomic notes of the larva, pupa and adults include drawings of the Acalcarella nucus larva.

Geomorphology of a Portion of the Easternmost Ventura Basin

The Humphreys Quadrangle is a portion of the easternmost Ventura Basin underlain by a thick series of Tertiary sedimentary rocks. On these rocks a great variety of geomorphic forms have been molded by the processes of running water typical of a semi-arid climate and by several types of mass movement. Among the different categories of mass movement present, a new type, the siltflow, was observed.

The geomorphic forms of special interest present in the quadrangle are rock cones, open canyonheads, asymmetric canyons, and stream terraces and straths. The author urges the adoption of the definition of strath as that part of an old dissected valley floor, including the floors of tributary valleys, which was not part of the floodplain of the main valley stream.

An old erosion surface, the Puckett Mesa Surface, is present in the Humphreys Quadrangle which is correlative with certain of the older stream terraces. By correlating the variation of gradient and of fill of the stream terraces with post –Wisconsin climatic fluctuations the age of the Puckett Mesa Surface is set at approximately 6000 B.C. This correlation sets the probable age of the older Rancho La Brea deposits at 6000 to 8000 B. C. and the probable age of the Carpenteria brea deposits at 1000 to 1 B. C.

Origem e composição da matéria orgânica sedimentar na margem continental próximo a Cabo Frio (RJ), porção sul da Bacia de Campos, costa sudeste do Brasil

Lipídios como marcadores moleculares (ácidos graxos, esterois e n- alcoois) e COT foram analisados em 48 amostras de sedimento superficial (0-2 cm) em dois períodos (inverno de 2008/2009 e verão de 2009) ao longo de 12 isóbatas em 2 transectos (25 a 3000 m) na principal região de ressurgência da costa sudeste do Brasil, onde a influência do aporte fluvial é mínima. O objetivo foi (i) avaliar as fontes, transporte e regiões de acúmulo da matéria orgânica (MO) (ii) identificar a fração da MO potencialmente disponível para os orgânismos bentônicos. Este estudo faz parte do Projeto Habitats Heterogeneidade Ambiental da Bacia de Campos coordenado pelo CENPES/PETROBRAS. Lipídios derivados da produção primária (0.058 - 3.1 mg gCOT-1) e secundária (0.015 - 2.2 mg gCOT-1) representaram a maior fração da MO sedimentar, enquanto lipídios derivados de fontes alóctonas (0.043 - 0.40 mg gCOT-1) e bactérias (<0.01 - 0.43 mg gCOT-1) foram menos representativos. O padrão de transporte e acúmulo da MO no sedimento depende da associação entre fatores físicos (hidrodinâmicos) e biológicos (resposta a ressurgência), e não é influenciado sazonalmente como observado em dados prévios na mesma região. Verificou-se que regiões restritas da plataforma continental apresentam acúmulo de MO lábil e esse material é exportado para regiões do talude (400 a 1000 m de profundidade), o que representa uma fonte importante de MO biodisponível para a comunidade bentônica desta região.