Bayesian analysis of uncertainty in the GlobCover 2009 land cover product at climate model grid scale

Land cover data derived from satellites are commonly used to prescribe inputs to models of the land surface. Since such data inevitably contains errors, quantifying how uncertainties in the data affect a model’s output is important. To do so, a spatial distribution of possible land cover values is required to propagate through the model’s simulation. However, at large scales, such as those required for climate models, such spatial modelling can be difficult. Also, computer models often require land cover proportions at sites larger than the original map scale as inputs, and it is the uncertainty in these proportions that this article discusses. This paper describes a Monte Carlo sampling scheme that generates realisations of land cover proportions from the posterior distribution as implied by a Bayesian analysis that combines spatial information in the land cover map and its associated confusion matrix. The technique is computationally simple and has been applied previously to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales. This article demonstrates the ability of the technique to scale up to large (global) satellite derived land cover maps and reports its application to the GlobCover 2009 data product. The results show that, in general, the GlobCover data possesses only small biases, with the largest belonging to non–vegetated surfaces. In vegetated surfaces, the most prominent area of uncertainty is Southern Africa, which represents a complex heterogeneous landscape. It is also clear from this study that greater resources need to be devoted to the construction of comprehensive confusion matrices.

The global-scale impacts of climate change: the QUEST-GSI project

This paper introduces the special issue of Climatic Change on the QUEST-GSI project, a global-scale multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change. The project used multiple climate models to characterise plausible climate futures with consistent baseline climate and socio-economic data and consistent assumptions, together with a suite of global-scale sectoral impacts models. It estimated impacts across sectors under specific SRES emissions scenarios, and also constructed functions relating impact to change in global mean surface temperature. This paper summarises the objectives of the project and its overall methodology, outlines how the project approach has been used in subsequent policy-relevant assessments of future climate change under different emissions futures, and summarises the general lessons learnt in the project about model validation and the presentation of multi-sector, multi-region impact assessments and their associated uncertainties to different audiences.

Transit times – the link between hydrology and water quality at the catchment scale

In spite of trying to understand processes in the same spatial domain, the catchment hydrology and water quality scientific communities are relatively disconnected and so are their respective models. This is emphasized by an inadequate representation of transport processes, in both catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models. While many hydrological models at the catchment scale only account for pressure propagation and not for mass transfer, catchment scale water quality models are typically limited by overly simplistic representations of flow processes. With the objective of raising awareness for this issue and outlining potential ways forward we provide a non-technical overview of (1) the importance of hydrology-controlled transport through catchment systems as the link between hydrology and water quality; (2) the limitations of current generation catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models; (3) the concept of transit times as tools to quantify transport and (4) the benefits of transit time based formulations of solute transport for catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models. There is emerging evidence that an explicit formulation of transport processes, based on the concept of transit times has the potential to improve the understanding of the integrated system dynamics of catchments and to provide a stronger link between catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models.

Spatial patterns and environmental constraints on ecosystem services at a catchment scale

Improved understanding and prediction of the fundamental environmental controls on ecosystem service supply across the landscape will help to inform decisions made by policy makers and land-water managers. To evaluate this issue for a local catchment case study, we explored metrics and spatial patterns of service supply for water quality regulation, agriculture production, carbon storage, and biodiversity for the Macronutrient Conwy catchment. Methods included using ecosystem models such as LUCI and JULES, integration of national scale field survey datasets, earth observation products and plant trait databases, to produce finely resolved maps of species richness and primary production. Analyses were done with both 1x1 km gridded and subcatchment data. A common single gradient characterised catchment scale ecosystem services supply with agricultural production and carbon storage at opposing ends of the gradient as reported for a national-scale assessment. Species diversity was positively related to production due to the below national average productivity levels in the Conwy combined with the unimodal relationship between biodiversity and productivity at the national scale. In contrast to the national scale assessment, a strong reduction in water quality as production increased was observed in these low productive systems. Various soil variables were tested for their predictive power of ecosystem service supply. Soil carbon, nitrogen, their ratio and soil pH all had double the power of rainfall and altitude, each explaining around 45% of variation but soil pH is proposed as a potential metric for ecosystem service supply potential as it is a simple and practical metric which can be carried out in the field with crowd-sourcing technologies now available. The study emphasises the importance of considering multiple ecosystem services together due to the complexity of covariation at local and national scales, and the benefits of exploiting a wide range of metrics for each service to enhance data robustness.

Rainfastness of poly(vinyl alcohol) deposits on Vicia faba leaf surfaces: from laboratory-scale washing to simulated rain

Rainfastness is the ability of agrochemical deposits to resist wash-off by rain and other related environmental phenomena. This work reports laboratory-scale and raintower studies of the rainfastness of fluorescently labeled poly(vinyl alcohol) (PVA) using fluorescent microscopy combined with image analysis. Samples of hydrolyzed PVA exhibit improved rainfastness over a threshold molecular weight, which correlates with PVA film dissolution, swelling, and crystalline properties. It was also established that the rainfastness of PVA scaled with the molecular weight over this threshold. These PVA samples were further characterized in order to determine the effect of the crystallinity on rainfastness. The quantification of rainfastness is of great interest to the field of agrochemical formulation development in order to improve the efficacy of pesticides and their adjuvants.

Holocene Climatic Optimum centennial-scale paleoceanography in the NE Aegean (Mediterranean sea)

Combined micropaleontological and geochemical analyses of the high-sedimentation gravity core M-4G provided new centennial-scale paleoceanographic data for sapropel S1 deposition in the NE Aegean Sea during the Holocene Climatic Optimum. Sapropel layer S1a (10.2–8.0 ka) was deposited in dysoxic to oxic bottom waters characterized by a high abundance of benthic foraminiferal species tolerating surface sediment and/or pore water oxygen depletion (e.g., Chilostomella mediterranensis, Globobulimina affinis), and the presence of Uvigerina mediterranea, which thrives in oxic mesotrophic-eutrophic environments. Preservation of organic matter (OM) is inferred based on high organic carbon as well as loliolide and isololiolide contents, while the biomarker record and the abundances of eutrophic planktonic foraminifera document enhanced productivity. High inputs of terrigenous OM are attributed to north Aegean borderland riverine inputs. Both alkenone-based sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and δO18G. bulloides records indicate cooling at 8.2 ka (S1a) and ~7.8 ka (S1 interruption). Sapropelic layer S1b (7.7–6.4 ka) is characterized by rather oxic conditions; abundances of foraminiferal species tolerant to oxygen depletion are very low compared with the U. mediterranea rise. Strongly fluctuating SSTs demonstrate repeated cooling and associated dense water formation, with a major event at 7.4 ka followed by cold spells at 7.0, 6.8, and 6.5 ka. The prominent rise of the carbon preference index within the S1b layer indicates the delivery of less degraded terrestrial OM. The increase of algal biomarkers, labile OM-feeding foraminifera and eutrophic planktonic species pinpoints an enhanced in situ marine productivity, promoted by more efficient vertical convection due to repeated cold events. The associated contributions of labile marine OM along with fresher terrestrial OM inputs after ~7.7 ka imply sources alternative/additional to the north Aegean riverine borderland sources for the influx of organic matter in the south Limnos Basin, plausibly related to the inflow of highly productive Marmara/Black Sea waters.

Renormalized time scale for anticipating and lagging synchronization

Anticipating synchronization has been recently proposed as a mechanism of interaction in dynamical systems which are able to bring about predictions of future states of a driver system. We suggest that an interesting insight into the anticipating synchronization can be obtained by the renormalization of the time scale in the driven system. Our approach directly links the feedback delay of the driven system with the renormalized time scale of the driven system, identifying the main component in the anticipating synchronization paradigm and suggesting an alternative method to generate the anticipating and the lagging synchronization.

A comparison between large-scale irregularities and scintillations in the polar ionosphere

A comparison tool has been developed by mapping the global GPS total electron content (TEC) and large coverage of ionospheric scintillations together on the geomagnetic latitude/magnetic local time coordinates. Using this tool, a comparison between large-scale ionospheric irregularities and scintillations are pursued during a geomagnetic storm. Irregularities, such as storm enhanced density (SED), middle-latitude trough and polar cap patches, are clearly identified from the TEC maps. At the edges of these irregularities, clear scintillations appeared but their behaviors were different. Phase scintillations (σsub{φ}) were almost always larger than amplitude scintillations (S4) at the edges of these irregularities, associated with bursty flows or flow reversals with large density gradients. An unexpected scintillation feature appeared inside the modeled auroral oval where S4 were much larger than σsub{φ}, most likely caused by particle precipitations around the exiting polar cap patches.

Psychometric evaluation of the Disordered Eating Attitude Scale (DEAS). English version

Eating attitudes are defined as beliefs, thoughts, feelings, behaviors and relationship with food They could influence people`s food choices and their health status Objective This study aimed to adapt from Portuguese to English the Disordered Eating Attitude Scale (DEAS) and evaluate its validity and reliability. The original scale in Portuguese was translated and adapted into English and was applied to female university students of University of Minnesota USA (n = 224). Internal consistency was determined (Cronbach`s Alpha). Convergent validity was assessed by correlations between Eating Attitude Test-26 (EAT-26) and Restrain Scale (RS). Reliability was evaluated applying twice the scale to a sub-sample (n = 30). The scale was back translated into Portuguese and compared with the original version and discrepancies were not found. The internal consistency was .76 The DEAS total score was significantly associated with EAT-26 (r = 0.65) and RS (r = 0 69) scores The correlation between test-retest was r = 09 The English version of DEAS showed appropriate internal consistency, convergent validity and test-retest reliability and will be useful to assess eating attitudes in different population groups in English spoken countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDITY OF THE DISORDERED EATING ATTITUDE SCALE (DEAS)

The aim of this study was to develop and validate the Disordered Eating Attitude Scale to measure disordered eating attitudes, defined as abnormal beliefs, thoughts, feelings, behaviors, and relationship regarding food. Exploratory factor analysis was performed and internal consistency assessed in a sample of female university students (N=196). Convergent validity was acceptable based on statistically significant correlations with the Eating Attitude Test-26 and Restraint Scale. Known-groups validity was determined by comparing the student sample`s mean scores against scores of an eating disorder group (N=51). The Disordered Eating Attitude Scale comprises 25 questions and five subscales explaining 54.3% of total variance. The total scores differentiated student, bulimia, and anorexia groups. The scale should prove useful for evaluating eating attitudes in various population groups and eating disordered patients.

A comparison of two bench-scale anaerobic systems used for the treatment of dairy effluents

The objective of this work was to compare two anaerobic reactor conflgurations, a hybrid upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASBh) reactor and an anaerobic sequencing batch reactor with immobilised biomass (ASBBR) treating dairy effluents. The reactors were fed with effluent from the milk pasteurisation process (effluent 1-E1) and later with effluent from the same process combined with the one from the cheese manufacturing (effluent 2-E2). The ASBBR reactor showed average organic matter removal efficiency of 95.2% for E1 and 93.5% for E2, while the hybrid UASB reactor showed removal efficiencies of 90.3% and 80.1% respectively.

Climate perspective on the large-scale circulation associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

The landfall of Cyclone Catarina on the Brazilian coast in March 2004 became known as the first documented hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean, promoting a new view oil how large-scale features can contribute to tropical transition. The aim of this paper is to put the large-scale circulation associated with Catarina`s transition in climate perspective. This is discussed in the light of a robust pattern of spatial correlations between thermodynamic and dynamic variables of importance for hurricane formation. A discussion on how transition mechanisms respond to the present-day circulation is presented. These associations help in understanding why Catarina was formed in a region previously thought to be hurricane-free. Catarina developed over a large-scale area of thermodynamically favourable air/sea temperature contrast. This aspect explains the paradox that such a rare system developed when the sea surface temperature was slightly below average. But, although thermodynamics played an important role, it is apparent that Catarina would not have formed without the key dynamic interplay triggered by a high latitude blocking. The blocking was associated with an extreme positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) both hemispherically and locally, and the nearby area where Catarina developed is found to be more cyclonic during the positive phase of the SAM. A conceptual model is developed and a `South Atlantic index` is introduced as a useful diagnostic of potential conditions leading to tropical transition in the area, where large-scale indices indicate trends towards more favourable atmospheric conditions for tropical cyclone formation. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Scale architecture of the palmar and plantar epidermis of Polychrus acutirostris Spix, 1825 (Iguania, Polychrotidae) and its relationship to arboreal locomotion

In tetrapod squamates, the diversity of micro-ornamentations of the epidermis of the contact areas of hands and feet is generally associated with constraints and modalities related to locomotion. Polychrus acutirostris is a medium-sized lizard that occurs in open heterogeneous habitats in South America, such as the cerrados, caatingas, and fallow lands. It progresses slowly on branches of various diameters in its arboreal environment. It can also move more rapidly on the ground. The hands and feet are prehensile and may be considered an adaptation for grasping and climbing. Epidermal surfaces from the palmar and plantar areas of the hands and feet of P. acutirostris were prepared for SEM examination, and studied at various magnifications. They show three major levels of complexity: (1) scale types, organized in gradients of size and imbrication, (2) scalar ornamentations, organized by increasing complexity and polarity, and (3) presence of Oberhautchen showing typically iguanian honeycomb micro-ornamentations. The shape and surface structure of the scales with their pattern of micro-ornamental peaks, which improve grip, and the grasping hands and feet indicate that P. acutirostris is morpho-functionally specialized for arboreality. (C) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.