Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Report from The International Society for Nomenclature of Paediatric and Congenital Heart Disease: cardiovascular catheterisation for congenital and paediatric cardiac disease (Part 1-Procedural nomenclature)

Interventional cardiology for paediatric and congenital cardiac disease is a relatively young and rapidly evolving field. As the profession begins to establish multi-institutional databases, a universal system of nomenclature is necessary for the field of interventional cardiology for paediatric and congenital cardiac disease. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the efforts of The International Society for Nomenclature of Paediatric and Congenital Heart Disease to establish a system of nomenclature for cardiovascular catheterisation for congenital and paediatric cardiac disease, focusing both on procedural nomenclature and on the nomenclature of complications associated with interventional cardiology. This system of nomenclature for cardiovascular catheterisation for congenital and paediatric cardiac disease is a component of The International Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code. This manuscript is the first part of a two-part series. Part 1 will cover the procedural nomenclature associated with interventional cardiology as treatment for paediatric and congenital cardiac disease. This procedural nomenclature of The International Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code will be used in the IMPACT Registry (TM) (IMproving Pediatric and Adult Congenital Treatment) of the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (R) of The American College of Cardiology. Part 2 will cover the nomenclature of complications associated with interventional cardiology as treatment for paediatric and congenital cardiac disease.

Report from The International Society for Nomenclature of Paediatric and Congenital Heart Disease: cardiovascular catheterisation for congenital and paediatric cardiac disease (Part 2-Nomenclature of complications associated with interventional cardiology)

Interventional cardiology for paediatric and congenital cardiac disease is a relatively young and rapidly evolving field. As the profession begins to establish multi-institutional databases, a universal system of nomenclature is necessary for the field of interventional cardiology for paediatric and congenital cardiac disease. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the efforts of The International Society for Nomenclature of Paediatric and Congenital Heart Disease to establish a system of nomenclature for cardiovascular catheterisation for congenital and paediatric cardiac disease, focusing both on procedural nomenclature and the nomenclature of complications associated with interventional cardiology. This system of nomenclature for cardiovascular catheterisation for congenital and paediatric cardiac disease is a component of The International Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code. This manuscript is the second part of the two-part series. Part 1 covered the procedural nomenclature associated with interventional cardiology as treatment for paediatric and congenital cardiac disease. Part 2 will cover the nomenclature of complications associated with interventional cardiology as treatment for paediatric and congenital cardiac disease.

Cytokine Signatures of Innate and Adaptive Immunity in 17DD Yellow Fever Vaccinated Children and Its Association With the Level of Neutralizing Antibody

Background. The live attenuated yellow fever (YF) vaccines have been available for decades and are considered highly effective and one of the safest vaccines worldwide. Methods. The impact of YF-17DD-antigens recall on cytokine profiles of YF-17DD-vaccinated children were characterized using short-term cultures of whole blood samples and single-cell flow cytometry. This study enrolled seroconverters and nonseroconverters after primovaccination (PV-PRNT(+) and PV-PRNT(-)), seroconverters after revaccination (RV-PRNT(+)), and unvaccinated volunteers (UV-PRNT(-)). Results. The analysis demonstrated in the PV-PRNT(+) group a balanced involvement of pro-inflammatory/regulatory adaptive immunity with a prominent participation of innate immunity pro-inflammatory events (IL-12(+) and TNF-alpha(+) NEU and MON). Using the PV-PRNT(+) cytokine signature as a reference profile, PV-PRNT(+) presented a striking lack of innate immunity proinflammatory response along with an increased adaptive regulatory profile (IL-4(+) CD4(+) T cells and IL-10(+) and IL-5(+) CD8(+) T cells). Conversely, the RV-PRNT(+) shifted the overall cytokine signatures toward an innate immunity pro-inflammatory profile and restored the adaptive regulatory response. Conclusions. The data demonstrated that the overall cytokine signature was associated with the levels of PRNT antibodies with a balanced innate/adaptive immunity with proinflammatory/regulatory profile as the hallmark of PV-PRNT(MEDIUM+), whereas a polarized regulatory response was observed in PV-PRNT(-) and a prominent proinflammatory signature was the characteristic of PV-PRNT(HIGH+).

Age-related deregulation of Aire and peripheral tissue antigen genes in the thymic stroma of non-obese diabetic (NOD) mice is associated with autoimmune type 1 diabetes mellitus (DM-1)

Gene expression of peripheral tissue antigens (PTAs) in stromal medullary thymic epithelial cells (mTECs) is a key process to the negative selection of autoreactive thymocytes. This phenomenon was termed ""promiscuous gene expression"" (PGE), which is partially controlled by the Aire gene. Nevertheless, reasons for the correlation of Aire and PTAs with the emergence of autoimmune diseases are largely unknown, though it may be a result of a chronological effect. Although the effect of Aire mutations in pathogenic autoimmunity is well know, it could not be a unique cause for autoimmunity. Independently of mutations, temporal deregulation of Aire expression may imbalance Aire-dependent PTAs and/or wide PGE. This deregulation may be an early warning sign for autoimmune diseases as it guarantees autoantigen representation in the thymus. To assess this hypothesis, we studied the expression levels of Aire, Aire-dependent (Ins2) and Aire-independent (Gad67 and Col2a1) PTAs using real-time-PCR of the thymic stromal cells of NOD mice during the development of autoimmune type 1 diabetes mellitus (DM-1). Wide PGE was studied by microarrays in which the PTA genes were identified through parallel CD80(+) mTEC 3.10 cell line expression profiling. The results show that Aire gene was down-regulated in young pre-autoimmune (pre-diabetic) NOD mice. PGE and specific PTA genes were down-regulated in adult autoimmune diabetic animals. These findings represent evidence indicating that chronological deregulation of genes important to negative selection may be associated with the development of an autoimmune disease (DM-1) in mice.

Co-Expression of Leptin and Oestrogen Receptors in the Preoptic-Hypothalamic Area

The interaction between the reproductive axis and energy balance suggests that leptin acts as a possible mediator. This hormone acts in the regulation of metabolism, feeding behaviour and reproduction. Animals homozygous for the gene `ob` (ob/ob) are obese and infertile, and these effects are reversed after systemic administration of leptin. Thus, the present study aimed to determine: (i) whether cells that express leptin also express oestrogen receptors of type-alpha (ER-alpha) or -beta (ER-beta) in the medial preoptic area (MPOA) and in the arcuate (ARC), dorsomedial (DMH) and ventromedial hypothalamic nucleus and (ii) whether there is change in the gene and protein expression of leptin in these brain areas in ovariectomised (OVX) animals when oestrogen-primed. Wistar female rats with normal oestrous cycles or ovariectomised oestrogen-primed or vehicle (oil)-primed were utilised. To determine whether there was a co-expression, immunofluorescence was utilised for double staining. Confocal microscopy was used to confirm the co-expression. The technique of real-time polymerase chain reaction and western blotting were employed to analyse gene and protein expression, respectively. The results obtained showed co-expression of leptin and ER-alpha in the MPOA and in the DMH, as well as leptin and ER-beta in the MPOA, DMH and ARC. However, we did not detect leptin in the MPOA, ARC and DMH using western blotting and there was no statistical difference in leptin gene expression in the MPOA, DMH, ARC, pituitary or adipose tissue between OVX rats treated with oestrogen or vehicle. In conclusion, the results obtained in the present study confirm that the brain is also a source of leptin and reveal co-expression of oestrogen receptors and leptin in the same cells from areas related to reproductive function and feeding behaviour. Although these data corroborate the previous evidence obtained concerning the interaction between the action of brain leptin and reproductive function, the physiological relevance of this interaction remains uncertain and additional studies are necessary to elucidate the exact role of central leptin.

Effects of Nicotine Exposure on Renal Function of Normal and Hypercholesterolemic Rats

Background/Aims: Renal risks of nicotine exposure associated with hypercholesterolemia are still unknown. Methods: Thus, hypercholesterolemic rats (HC) and their control (C) were evaluated by inulin clearance (InCl) measured at baseline and during nicotine infusion (100 mu g/kg b.w.). Five groups were studied: (i) C; (ii) DEN (C submitted to a renal denervation); (iii) C + L-arginine (0.25% in drinking water); (iv) HC, and (v) HC + L-arginine (0.25% in drinking water). Furthermore, C and HC had their renal blood flow (RBF) measured and they have also been chronically treated with nicotine (12.5 mu g/ml in drinking water) to assess InCl on the 8th day. Results: Nicotine increased blood pressure in C, DEN and HC and reduced InCl only in C. L-Arginine treatment blunted nicotine effects on blood pressure and increased InCl only in C. Moreover, nicotine did not change RBF in C but elicited in HC, whereas renal vascular resistance was increased in C and unchanged in HC. Indeed, chronic nicotine exposure has also reduced InCl in C. Conclusion: Nicotine acted on the adrenergic system and nitric oxide counteracted this action in C, but the same may not be applied to HC. An impairment in renal autoregulation may explain why InCl was unchanged in HC. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

Focal and linear endocardial and epicardial catheter-based cryoablation of normal and infarcted ventricular tissue

Background: This study of a chronic porcine postinfarction model examined whether linear epicardial cryoablation was capable of creating large, homogenous lesions in regions of the myocardium including scarred ventricle. Endocardial and epicardial focal cryolesions were also compared to determine if there were significant differences in lesion characteristics. Methods: Eighty focal endocardial and 28 focal epicardial cryoapplications were delivered to eight normal caprine and four normal porcine ventricular myocardium, and 21 linear cryolesions were applied along the border of infarcted epicardial tissue in a chronic porcine infarct model in six swines. Results: Focal endocardial cryolesions in normal animals measured 9.7 +/- 0.4 mm (length) by 7.3 +/- 1.4 mm (width) by 4.8 +/- 0.2 mm (depth), while epicardial lesions measured 10.2 +/- 1.4 mm (length) by 7.7 +/- 2 mm (width) by 4.6 +/- 0.9 mm (depth); P > 0.05. Linear epicardial cryolesions in the chronic porcine infarct model measured 36.5 +/- 7.8 mm (length) by 8.2 +/- 1.3 mm (width) by 6.0 +/- 1.2 mm (depth). The mean depth of linear cryolesions applied to the border of the infarct scar was 7 +/- 0.7 mm, as measured by magnetic resonance imaging. Conclusions:Cryoablation can create deep lesions when delivered to the ventricular epicardium. Endocardial and epicardial cryolesions created by a focal cryoablation catheter are similar in size and depth. The ability to rapidly create deep linear cryolesions may prove to be beneficial in substrate-based catheter ablation of ventricular arrhythmias.

A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Clinical study of cryosurgery efficacy in the treatment of skin and subcutaneous tumors in dogs and cats

Objective-To evaluate the efficacy of cryosurgery for treatment of skin and subcutaneous tumors in dogs and cats. Study Design-Prospective study. Animals-Dogs (n = 20), cats (10). Methods-Cutaneous or subcutaneous tumors were treated by liquid nitrogen cryosurgical spray (1 cm from target tissue at 90 degrees until a 5-mm halo of frozen tissue was achieved) for 15-60 seconds. Malignant lesions had 3 freeze-thaw cycles benign tumors, 2 cycles. The second or third freeze cycle was performed after complete thaw of the preceding freeze. Wounds healed by second intention. Follow-up was weekly for 1 month and then twice monthly until wounds healed, and final outcome was determined by telephone interview of owners. Results-Tumor size ranged from 0.3 to 11 cm, diameter with 28 (60%) being 0.3-1 cm; 8 (17%) 1.1-3cm, and 11 (23%) >3.4cm. Complications included edema, erythema and for extremity lesions, pain and lameness. Treated lesions (n = 47) had an overall remission of 98% (mean follow-up.. 345 +/- 172.02 days [range, 150-750 days]). One malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumor recurred 7 months after cryosurgical treatment. Conclusion-Cryo surgery is an efficient method for treatment of skin and subcutaneous tumors in dogs and cats. Clinical Relevance-Cryosurgical ablation is an effective means of treating small cutaneous or subcutaneous tumors in dogs and cats, especially in older animals where wound closure or cosmetic outcome might limit surgical excision alone. (C) Copyright 2008 by The American College of Veterinary Surgeons.

Experimental infection of the rabbit tick, Haemaphysalis leporispalustris, with the bacterium Rickettsia rickettsii, and comparative biology of infected and uninfected tick lineages

The present study consisted of two experiments that evaluated experimental infections of Haemaphysalis leporispalustris ticks by a Brazilian strain of Rickettsia rickettsii, and their effect on tick biology. In experiment I, ticks were exposed to R. rickettsii during the larval, nymphal or adult stages by feeding on rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) needle-inoculated with R. rickettsii, and thereafter reared on uninfected rabbits for the entire next tick generation. Regardless of the tick stage that acquired the infection, all subsequent tick stages were shown to be infected by PCR (infection rates varying from 1.3 to 41.7%), and were able to transmit R. rickettsii to uninfected rabbits, as demonstrated by rabbit seroconversion, guinea pig inoculation with rabbit blood, and PCR on rabbit blood. In Experiment II, ticks were exposed to R. rickettsii during the larval stage by feeding on rabbits co-infested with R. rickettsii-infected adult ticks, and thereafter reared on uninfected rabbits until the next generation of larvae. Again, all subsequent tick stages were shown to be infected by PCR (infection rates varying from 3.0 to 40.0%), and were able to transmit R. rickettsii to uninfected rabbits. Thus, it was demonstrated that larvae, nymphs, and adults of H. leporispalustris were able to acquire and maintain the R. rickettsii infection by transstadial and transovarial transmissions within the tick population, with active transmission of the bacterium to susceptible rabbits by all parasitic stages. Analyses of biological parameters of uninfected and R. rickettsii-infected tick lineages were performed in order to evaluate possible deleterious effects of R. rickettsii to the infected tick lineages. Surprisingly, all but one of the four R. rickettsii-experimental groups of the present study showed overall better biological performance than their sibling uninfected control ticks. Results of the present study showed that H. leporispalustris could support infection by a high virulent strain of R. rickettsii for at least two generations, in which infected tick lineages tended to have better performance than uninfected ticks. Our results support a possible role of H. leporispalustris in the enzootic maintenance of R. rickettsii in Latin America, as previously suggested by earlier works.

The effect of temperature and fasting period on the viability of free-living females of Rhipicephalus sanguineus (Acari : Ixodidae) under laboratory conditions

Little is known about the effect of temperature on viability of free-living phases of the life cycle of Rhipicephalus sanguineus (Latreille, 1806) despite of its importance as vector of several pathogens. Knowledge of the effect of abiotic factors on the capacity of a given tick species to infest new hosts is important for routine experimental activities under laboratory conditions, and may be relevant to understand the transmission of pathogens. The study evaluates the viability of R. sanguineus females held at 18 +/- 1, 27 +/- 1 and 32 +/- 1 degrees C and 80 +/- 5% RH (saturation deficits of 3.0, 5.3 and 7.2 mmHg, respectively) for three fasting periods (3 and 20 days and the day when female mortality reached approximately 50% after ecdysis), under laboratory conditions. In general, the best result on viability was obtained when rabbits were infested with unfed female ticks after three or 20 fasting days at both 27 +/- 1 and 32 +/- 1 degrees C and 80 +/- 5% RH.

Differential diagnosis of oocysts of Hammondia-like organisms of dogs and cats by PCR-RFLP analysis of 70-kilodalton heat shock protein (HSP70) gene

Organisms of the genera Toxoplasma, Hammondia and Neospora, the Hammondia-like organisms, are closely related coccidian with similarly sized oocysts. Therefore, a diagnosis based on microscopy of oocysts in feces is not a method of choice for species identification of these important parasites. In this paper, we present a polymerase chain reaction coupled with restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) method to differentially diagnose oocysts of Toxoplasma gondii from oocyst of Hammondia hammondi. Another PCR-RFLP was designed to differentiate oocysts of Hammondia heydorni from oocysts of Neospora spp. Both PCR-RFLP are based on nucleotide sequences of the Hsp70 coding gene. In conclusion, we presented two alternative molecular diagnostic assays that can be successfully applied for the differentiation of oocysts of Hammondia-like organisms shed by felids and canids.

Detection of Leptospira spp. in semen and vaginal fluids of goats and sheep by polymerase chain reaction

Thirteen goat herds and seven sheep flocks in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil were screened for leptospirosis. From the three herds and three flocks with greatest seroreactivity, 19 goats (16 females and three bucks) and 40 sheep (26 ewes and 14 rams) that were seropositive (specific anti-Leptospira titres >= 400, based on a microscopic agglutination test), were selected for more detailed studies. From those animals, samples of vaginal fluids or semen were collected for bacteriological and molecular assays. For both species of animals, the most prevalent reactions were to serovars Hardjo, Shermani, and Grippotyphosa. Although leptospires were detected by darkfield microscopy in three vaginal fluid samples (from two goats and one ewe), pure isolates were not obtained by bacteriological culture of vaginal fluids or semen. However, seven vaginal fluid samples (from four goats and three ewes) and six semen samples (all from rams) were positive on polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Based on these findings, in addition to analogous findings in cattle, we inferred that there is potential for venereal transmission of leptospirosis in small ruminants. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.