Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

Extraction and spectrophotometric determination of Hg2+ as complex anion HgI3-

A method has been developed for the extraction and spectrophotometric determination of Hg2+ in a concentration range of 0.2-1.0 mg L-1; following the Lambert-Beer's law using high molecular weight quaternary ammonium salts dissolved in chloroform. The metal complex anion was determined in the extract in the region UV (260 nm).

Magnetic sputtering of complex oxides

HTSC materials are relevant in modern microelectronics, because of their transformation from the normal state to the superconducting. That is why the idea of producing HTSC in industrial amounts is actual nowadays. To decrease cost of their production it is important to use magnetron sputtering systems which give the best results for essential parameters. Modeling is the simplest and the fastest way to determine optimum sputtering condition. This thesis concentrates on determination the phases of the whole sputtering process and to find out basic factors of each phase using the modeling. It was find out, that the main factors which influence on the mode of occurrence of the initial stages are the current density of the magnetron discharge and the pressure of sputtering gas. With the modeling also velocity dependences were obtained for YBCO and SmFeAsO. These were compared and difference between them was examined. To support represented model comparison was made with experimental results. This showed that the model gives good results, very similar to the experimental ones. The results of this work were published in annual conference of the finnish physical society.

Sensitive spectrophotometric determination of lansoprazole in pharmaceuticals using ceric ammonium sulphate based on redox and complex formation reactions

Two simple sensitive and cost-effective spectrophotometric methods are described for the determination of lansoprazole (LPZ) in bulk drug and in capsules using ceric ammonium sulphate (CAS), iron (II), orthophenanthroline and thiocyanate as reagents. In both methods, an acidic solution of lansoprazole is treated with a measured excess of CAS followed by the determination of unreacted oxidant by two procedures involving different reaction schemes. The first method involves the reduction of residual oxidant by a known amount of iron(II), and the unreacted iron(II) is complexed with orthophenanthroline at a raised pH, and the absorbance of the resulting complex measured at 510 nm (method A). In the second method, the unreacted CAS is reduced by excess of iron (II), and the resulting iron (III) is complexed with thiocyanate in the acid medium and the absorbance of the complex measured at 470 nm (method B). In both methods, the amount CAS reacted corresponds to the amount of LPZ. In method A, the absorbance is found to increase linearly with the concentration of LPZ where as in method B a linear decrease in absorbance occurs. The systems obey Beer's law for 2.5-30 and 2.5-25 µg mL-1 for method A and method B, respectively, and the corresponding molar absorptivity values are 8.1×10³ and 1.5×10(4) L mol-1cm-1 . The methods were successfully applied to the determination of LPZ in capsules and the results tallied well with the label claim. No interference was observed from the concomitant substances normally added to capsules.

Use of modified silica gel for concentrating Pb (II) and Cd (II) occurring in form of complex anions

The performance of silica gel, modified by the impregnation with a high molecular weight quaternary amine (triethyl octadecyl ammonium iodide), used for the concentration of heavy metals occurring in water is studied. The material under study captures Cd, Pb, which are capable of forming stable complexes with I- ions.The results obtained about the metal capture, under dynamic conditions, are described and metal ions are removed by desorption with EDTA and quantified by AAS.

Cerimetric determination of simvastatin in pharmaceuticals based on redox and complex formation reactions

Two sensitive spectrophotometric methods are described for the determination of simvastatin (SMT) in bulk drug and in tablets. The methods are based on the oxidation of SMT by a measured excess of cerium (IV) in acid medium followed by determination of unreacted oxidant by two different reaction schemes. In one procedure (method A), the residual cerium (IV) is reacted with a fixed concentration of ferroin and the increase in absorbance is measured at 510 nm. The second approach (method B) involves the reduction of the unreacted cerium (IV) with a fixed quantity of iron (II), and the resulting iron (III) is complexed with thiocyanate and the absorbance measured at 470 nm. In both methods, the amount of cerium (IV) reacted corresponds to SMT concentration. The experimental conditions for both methods were optimized. In method A, the absorbance is found to increase linearly with SMT concentration (r = 0.9995) whereas in method B, the same decreased (r = -0.9943). The systems obey Beer's law for 0.6-7.5 and 0.5-5.0 µg mL-1 for method A and method B, respectively. The calculated molar absorptivity values are 2.7 X 10(4) and 1.06 X 10(5) Lmol-1 cm-1, respectively; and the corresponding sandel sensitivity values are 0.0153 and 0.0039µg cm-2, respectively. The limit of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ) are reported for both methods. Intra-day and inter-day precision, and accuracy of the methods were established as per the current ICH guidelines. The methods were successfully applied to the determination of SMT in tablets and the results were statistically compared with those of the reference method by applying the Student's t-test and F-test. No interference was observed from the common excipients added to tablets. The accuracy and validity of the methods were further ascertained by performing recovery experiments via standard addition procedure.

Electrochemical properties of Cu4[PhN3C6H4N3(H)Ph]4(µ-O)2, a tetranuclear Copper(II) complex with 1-phenyltriazenido-2-phenyltriazene-benzene as ligand

Bis-(µ2-oxo)-tetrakis{[1-feniltriazene-1,3-diil)-2-(phenyltriazenil)benzene copper(II) is a tetranuclear complex which shows four Cu(II) ions coordinated by four 1,2-bis(phenyltriazene)benzene bridged ligands, with one diazoaminic deprotonated chain, and two O2- ligands. The complex reduces at E1/2 = -0.95 V vs Fc+/Fc, a two electrons process. Cyclic voltammetric and spectroelectrochemical studies showed a reversible process. When immobilized on carbon paste electrode, the complex electrocatalyses the reduction of O2 dissolved on aqueous solution at -0.3 V vs SCE potential. The obtained current shows linearity with O2 concentration.

Efeito do meio de cultura e do regime de luz na esporulação de Cercospora zeae-maydis

Algumas espécies fúngicas não esporulam satisfatoriamente em meio de cultura, a exemplo de Cercospora zeae-maydis, agente causal da cercosporiose do milho. A esporulação deste patógeno foi avaliada em sete meios de cultura agarizados (V8, suco de tomate temperado, água de coco, aveia, BDA, extrato de folha de milho e extrato de folha de milho + CaCO3) sob dois regimes luminosos (fotoperíodo de 12 horas e seqüencial - 6 dias claro/3 dias escuro). O ensaio foi conduzido em esquema fatorial 7 x 2, com os tratamentos dispostos em delineamento inteiramente casualizado com cinco repetições. A parcela experimental compreendeu uma placa de petri contendo 20 mL de meio de cultura sobre o qual foram colocados 200 mL de uma suspensão de 8 x 10(4) esporos/mL. As culturas foram posteriormente incubadas a 27ºC durante nove dias. Os meios V8 e suco de tomate temperado (STT) sob regime de fotoperíodo 12h/12h, foram aqueles que apresentaram melhor indução de esporulação, resultando na produção de 22,4 x 10(4) conídios/ mL e 28,62 x 10(4) conídios/mL, respectivamente.

Efeitos de meio de cultura, fontes de carbono e nitrogênio, pH e regime luminoso no crescimento de Mycosphaerella musicola

Este trabalho objetivou o estabelecimento de condições favoráveis ao crescimento micelial de M. musicola in vitro, pela avaliação em quatro experimentos, da influência de diferentes meios de cultura (BDA, BDA/IFB, V8, V8/IFB, V8/CaCO3 e V8/CaCO3/IFB); combinações de fontes de carbono (dextrose, maltose, sacarose e xilose) e nitrogênio (peptona, glicina, nitrato de potássio e de sódio); valores de pH (6,8; 6,4; 5,7 e 4,9) e regimes luminosos (escuro contínuo, alternância luminosa e claro contínuo). Observou-se um maior crescimento de M. musicola quando cultivado nos meios de cultura BDA/IFB, V8/IFB e BDA. As fontes de carbono sacarose, maltose e dextrose quando combinadas com a peptona como fonte de nitrogênio, promoveram um maior crescimento micelial de M. musicola. O meio de cultura BDA/IFB, com o valor final de pH ajustado para 5,7, em regime de escuro contínuo, apresentou-se como o melhor para o crescimento de M. musicola.

Distribution and role of macrophytes in coastal lagoons : implications of critical shifts

Crossroads, crucibles and refuges are three words that may describe natural coastal lagoon environments. The words refer to the complex mix of marine and terrestrial influences, prolonged dilution due to the semi-enclosed nature and the function of a habitat for highly diverse plant and animal communities, some of which are endangered. To attain a realistic picture of the present situation, high vulnerability to anthropogenic impact should be added to the description. As the sea floor in coastal lagoons is usually entirely photic, macrophyte primary production is accentuated compared with open sea environments. There is, however, a lack of proper knowledge on the importance of vegetation for the general functioning of coastal lagoon ecosystems. The aim of this thesis is to assess the role of macrophyte diversity, cover and species identity over temporal and spatial scales for lagoon functions, and to determine which steering factors primarily restrict the qualitative and quantitative composition of vegetation in coastal lagoons. The results are linked to patterns of related trophic levels and the indicative potential of vegetation for assessment of general conditions in coastal lagoons is evaluated. This thesis includes five field studies conducted in flads and glo-flads in the brackish water northern Baltic Sea. Flads and glo-flads are defined as a Baltic variety of coastal lagoons, which due to an inlet threshold and post-glacial landuplift slowly will be isolated from the open sea. This process shrinks inlet size, increases exposure and water retention, and is called habitat isolation. The studied coastal lagoons are situated in the archipelago areas of the eastern coast of Sweden, the Åland Islands and the south-west mainland of Finland, where land-uplift amounts to ca. 5 mm/ per year. Out of 400 evaluated sites, a total of 70 lagoons varying in inlet size, archipelago position and anthropogenic influence to cover for essential environmental variation were chosen for further inventory. Vegetation composition, cover and richness were measured together with several hydrographic and morphometric variables in the lagoons both seasonally and inter-annually to cover for general regional, local and temporal patterns influencing lagoon and vegetation development. On smaller species-level scale, the effects of macrophyte species identity and richness for the fish habitat function were studied by examining the influence of plant interaction on juvenile fish diversity. Thus, the active election of plant monoand polycultures by fish and the diversity of fish in the respective culture were examined and related to plant height and water depth. The lagoons and vegetation composition were found to experience a regime shift initiated by increased habitat isolation along with land-uplift. Vegetation composition altered, richness decreased and cover increased forming a less isolated and more isolated regime, named the vascular plant regime and charophyte regime, respectively according to the dominant vegetation. As total phosphorus in the water, turbidity and the impact of regional influences decreased in parallel, the dominance of charophytes and increasing cover seemed to buffer and stabilize conditions in the charophyte regime and indicated an increased functional role of vegetation for the lagoon ecosystem. The regime pattern was unaffected by geographical differences, while strong anthropogenic impact seemed to distort the pattern due to loss of especially Chara tomentosa L. in the charophyte regime. The regimes were further found unperturbed by short-time temporal fluctuations. In fact the seasonal and inter-annual dynamics reinforced the functional difference between the regimes by the increasing role of vegetation along habitat isolation and the resemblance to lake environments for the charophyte regime. For instance, greater total phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations in the water in the beginning of the season in the charophyte regime compared with the vascular plant regime presented a steeper reduction to even lower values than in the vascular plant regime along the season. Despite a regional importance and positive relationship of macrophyte diversity in relation to trophic diversity, species identity was underlined in the results of this thesis, especially with decreasing spatial scale. This result was supported partly by the increased role of charophytes in the functioning of the charophyte regime, but even more explicitly by the species-specific preference of juvenile fish for tall macrophyte monocultures. On a smaller species-level scale, tall plant species in monoculture seemed to be able to increase their length, indicating that negative selection forms preferred habitat structures, which increase fish diversity. This negative relationship between plant and fish diversity suggest a shift in diversity patterns among trohic levels on smaller scale. Thus, as diversity patterns seem complex and diverge among spatial scales, it might be ambiguous to extend the understanding of diversity relationships from one trophic level to the other. All together, the regime shift described here presents similarities to the regime development in marine lagoon environments and shallow lakes subjected to nutrient enrichment. However, due to nutrient buffering by vegetation with increased isolation and water retention as a consequence of the inlet threshold, the development seems opposite to the course along an eutrophication gradient described in marine lagoons lacking an inlet threshold, where the role of vegetation decreases. Thus, the results imply devastating consequences of inlet dredging (decreasing isolation) in terms of vegetation loss and nutrient release, and call for increased conservational supervision. Especially the red listed charophytes would suffer negatively from such interference and the consequences are likely to also deteriorate juvenile fish production. The fact that a new species to Finland, Chara connivens Salzm. Ex. Braun 1835 was discovered during this study further indicates a potential of the lagoons serving as refuges for rare species.

The Sottunga-Jurmo shear zone : structure and deformation history of a crustal-scale ductile shear zone in SW Finland

The aim of this study is to gain a better understanding of the structure and the deformation history of a NW-SE trending regional, crustal-scale shear structure in the Åland archipelago, SW Finland, called the Sottunga-Jurmo shear zone (SJSZ). Approaches involving e.g. structural geology, geochronology, geochemistry and metamorphic petrology were utilised in order to reconstruct the overall deformation history of the study area. The study therefore describes several features of the shear zone including structures, kinematics and lithologies within the study area, the ages of the different deformation phases (ductile to brittle) within the shear zone, as well as some geothermobarometric results. The results indicate that the SJSZ outlines a major crustal discontinuity between the extensively migmatized rocks NE of the shear zone and the unmigmatised, amphibolite facies rocks SW of the zone. The main SJSZ shows overall dextral lateral kinematics with a SW-side up vertical component and deformation partitioning into pure shear and simple shear dominated deformation styles that was intensified toward later stages of the deformation history. The deformation partitioning resulted in complex folding and refolding against the SW margin of the SJSZ, including conical and sheath folds, and in a formation of several minor strike-slip shear zones both parallel and conjugate to the main SJSZ in order to accommodate the regional transpressive stresses. Different deformation phases within the study area were dated by SIMS (zircon U-Pb), ID-TIMS (titanite U-Pb) and 40Ar/39Ar (pseudotachylyte wholerock) methods. The first deformation phase within the ca. 1.88 Ga rocks of the study area is dated at ca. 1.85 Ga, and the shear zone was reactivated twice within the ductile regime (at ca. 1.83 Ga and 1.79 Ga), during which the strain was successively increasingly partitioned into the main SJSZ and the minor shear zones. The age determinations suggest that the orogenic processes within the study area did not occur in a temporal continuum; instead, the metamorphic zircon rims and titanites show distinct, 10-20 Ma long breaks in deformation between phases of active deformation. The results of this study further imply slow cooling of the rocks through 600-700ºC so that at 1.79 Ga, 2 the temperature was still at least 600ºC. The highest recorded metamorphic pressures are 6.4-7.1 kbar. At the late stages or soon after the last ductile phase (ca. 1.79 Ga), relatively high-T mylonites and ultramylonites were formed, witnessing extreme deformation partitioning and high strain rates. After the rocks reached lower amphibolite facies to amphibolite-greenschist facies transitional conditions (ca. 500-550ºC), they cooled rapidly, probably due to crustal uplift and exhumation. The shear zone was reactivated at least once within the semi-brittle to brittle regime between ca. 1.79 Ga and 1.58 Ga, as evidenced by cataclasites and pseudotachylytes. In summary, the results of this study suggest that the Sottunga-Jurmo shear zone (and the South Finland shear zone) defines a major crustal discontinuity, and played a central role in accommodating the regional stresses during and after the Svecofennian orogeny.

Formação Médica na UFSB: II. O Desafio da Profissionalização no Regime de Ciclos

Este é o segundo artigo de uma série que apresenta estrutura curricular e modelo pedagógico do curso de Medicina em implantação na Universidade Federal do Sul da Bahia (UFSB), que adota um regime de dois ciclos de formação, integralmente realizado nos contextos de prática do Sistema Único de Saúde. Para isso, apresentam-se resumidamente perfil e competências dos egressos, introduzindo a estrutura curricular do segundo ciclo do curso e destacando sua aderência ao marco legal vigente. Em seguida, destacam-se os blocos temáticos do eixo de formação técnico-científica, com organização de conteúdos em ciclos de vida, visando superar o modelo que fragmenta o sujeito humano em sistemas, órgãos e patologias. Aborda-se ainda o eixo de práticas, composto por estágios supervisionados em todos os níveis de atenção da rede SUS, destacando a Atenção Primária em Saúde, que perpassa todo o segundo ciclo de formação. Por último, discutem-se impacto e efeitos dessa reestruturação da educação superior no sentido da convergência entre modelos formativos de profissionais de saúde e necessidades de saúde da população.

Análise de danos de colheita de madeira em floresta tropical úmida sob regime de manejo florestal sustentado na Amazônia ocidental

Procurou-se identificar, qualificar e quantificar a intensidade de danos causados pela colheita florestal em uma área com floresta primária explorada (FPE), tendo com testemunha uma área com floresta primária não-explorada (FPNE), com 202 e 204 ha, respectivamente. Na FPNE, foram avaliados os danos decorrentes de causas naturais. As áreas de FPE e de FPNE localizam-se no município de Manicoré, Estado do Amazonas. Realizou-se o inventário utilizando o método de amostragem aleatória, em ambas as áreas. As amostragens foram executadas em dois níveis de inclusão de DAP. No nível I foram instaladas cinco parcelas de 100 x 100 m (1 ha), onde foram inventariadas todas as árvores com DAP > ou = 15 cm. No nível II, as parcelas do nível I foram divididas sistematicamente em subparcelas de 10 x 10 m (100 m²), tendo sido amostradas aleatoriamente cinco subparcelas por parcela do nível I, totalizando 2.500 m², onde foram inventariados todos os indivíduos (varejões) com 5,0 <= DAP < 15 cm. As análises dos danos decorrentes de causas naturais indicaram que na FPNE apenas 10% da vegetação adulta remanescente apresentou danos. Na FPE, os danos causados pelas operações de colheita florestal, incluindo-se o corte e o arraste de toras, totalizaram 29%. As modificações na estrutura diamétrica da FPE foram maiores nas maiores classes de DAP, em que, em geral, foram constatadas reduções de 27, 29 e 30%, respectivamente, no número de árvores (n/ha), na área basal (m²/ha) e no volume (m³/ha). Essa redução de estoque foi considerada normal, uma vez que a amostragem foi realizada imediatamente após a execução das operações de colheita florestal.

Alteração estrutural de uma área de cerrado explorada sob regime de manejo no município de João Pinheiro-Minas Gerais-Brasil

Os planos de manejo em execução na atualidade são, em sua maioria, uma exploração florestal realizada com o título de plano de manejo. Para subsidiar a diferenciação dessas duas modalidades de exploração, foi realizado o presente trabalho, que teve como objetivo verificar a sustentabilidade do plano de manejo de cerrado executado na fazenda Santa Cecília, no município de João Pinheiro, estado de Minas Gerais, por meio da análise estrutural da vegetação, identificando alguns de seus impactos, em relação a uma área de cerrado não explorada. A avaliação foi realizada por meio de parcelas, que foram lançadas na área explorada em 1994/95 e na área ainda não-explorada. Os resultados da análise da estrutura horizontal demonstraram que houve diferença significativa na Densidade Absoluta e Volume Total e na Dominância Absoluta entre as áreas estudadas. Os resultados da estrutura diamétrica demonstraram diferença significativa para a distribuição da densidade e entre a distribuição da área basal e do volume total. Esses resultados indicaram que a exploração foi realizada além dos limites que permitissem a recuperação da vegetação para um novo corte, ao final do ciclo de corte.

Regime de luz em uma floresta estacional semidecídua sob manejo, em Pirenópolis, Goiás

Esta pesquisa foi realizada em um fragmento de floresta estacional semidecídua, localizada em Pirenópolis, Goiás, e investigou as alterações no regime de luz, medida pela densidade de fluxo de fótons, associadas a intervenções silviculturais que visaram, sobretudo, aumentar o crescimento de espécies arbóreas, sem permitir a invasão por espécies oportunistas que poderiam influenciar negativamente a dinâmica da regeneração natural. O delineamento foi em blocos casualizados, em esquema fatorial, testando as diferenças entre tratamentos silviculturais, estações climáticas e alturas de medida no sub-bosque (1,30 m e ao nível do solo). Foram testadas duas intensidades de corte seletivo de indivíduos arbóreos e de cipós na floresta. Os tratamentos foram suficientes para alterar o regime de luz, tanto na estação seca como na estação chuvosa, em acordo com a hipótese testada. O sombreamento na área controle foi de 97% na estação chuvosa e de 86% na estação seca, apresentando diferenças significativas com o sombreamento associado aos tratamentos silviculturais, que variaram de 93% a 94% na chuva e de 77% a 80% na seca. Esse estudo pode auxiliar na validação deste sistema de manejo florestal proposto para as florestas estacionais semidecíduas no Brasil Central, devendo ser associado aos estudos populacionais e de comunidade, preservando os fragmentos florestais encontrados na região e gerando benefícios ambientais e renda extra para a população rural.