Introduction of snow and geomorphic disturbance variables into predictive models of alpine plant distribution in the Western Swiss Alps

Indirect topographic variables have been used successfully as surrogates for disturbance processes in plant species distribution models (SDM) in mountain environments. However, no SDM studies have directly tested the performance of disturbance variables. In this study, we developed two disturbance variables: a geomorphic index (GEO) and an index of snow redistribution by wind (SNOW). These were developed in order to assess how they improved both the fit and predictive power of presenceabsence SDM based on commonly used topoclimatic (TC) variables for 91 plants in the Western Swiss Alps. The individual contribution of the disturbance variables was compared to TC variables. Maps of models were prepared to spatially test the effect of disturbance variables. On average, disturbance variables significantly improved the fit but not the predictive power of the TC models and their individual contribution was weak (5.6% for GEO and 3.3% for SNOW). However their maximum individual contribution was important (24.7% and 20.7%). Finally, maps including disturbance variables (i) were significantly divergent from TC models in terms of predicted suitable surfaces and connectivity between potential habitats, and (ii) were interpreted as more ecologically relevant. Disturbance variables did not improve the transferability of models at the local scale in a complex mountain system, and the performance and contribution of these variables were highly species-specific. However, improved spatial projections and change in connectivity are important issues when preparing projections under climate change because the future range size of the species will determine the sensitivity to changing conditions.

Spatial and temporal regulation of " cdc16p " in the fission yeast " Schizosaccharomyces pombe "

Abstract: The fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe has proven to be an excellent model system for the study of eukaryotic cell cycle control. S. pombe cells are rod-shaped and grow mainly by elongation at their tips. They divide by the means of a centrallyplaced division septum which provides two daughter cells of equal size. S. pombe cytokinesis begins at mitotic entry, when the division site is defined by formation of the contractile acto-myosin ring (CAR). Formation of the division septum is triggered at the end of mitosis by the spindle pole body (SPB) associated septation initiation network (SIN) proteins. SIN signalling requires activation of the GTPase spg1p, whose nucleotide status is regulated by the bipartite GAP byr4pcdc16p. Removal of cdc16p from the SPB during early mitosis is thought to allow priming of the SIN by association of cdc7p with both SPBs. During anaphase cdc7p is retained on the new SPB, which also recruits the kinase sid1 p and cdc14p, while the old SP8 reassembles the byr4-cdc16p GAP and is presumed not to signal; SPB asymmetry persists throughout anaphase. The trigger for inactivation of SIN signalling at the new SPB is unknown. This study has concentrated upon cdc16p. We have undertaken the analysis of the localisation of cdc16p using time-lapse microscopy. We have observed that the localisation of cdc16p is regulated at different transitions. We have shown that cdc16p is removed from the SPB prior to the onset of spindle formation and that it reappears asymmetrically at the beginning of anaphase B. We have also demonstrated that the resetting of the SIN at the new SPB is linked to completion of CAR contraction and septum formation. We propose the existence of a mechanism that monitors cytokinesis and that couples the activity of the SI N with the presence of the CAR. During the biochemical characterization of cdc16p, We have found that it is an unstable protein and that it is subjected to polyubiquitination by the SCF and proteasomal degradation. Together, these observations help to shed new light upon the mechanisms by which cytokinesis is regulated in S. pombe. Résumé: La levure Schizosaccharomyces pombe est un excellent organisme modèle pour l'étude du cycle cellulaire eucaryote. Les cellules S. pombe ont la forme de bâtonnets et croissent par l'allongement de leurs extrémités. Elles se divisent en formant, en leur milieu une paroi cellulaire, appelé septum, permettant ainsi l'obtention de deux cellules filles de même taille. Chez S. pombe, la cytokinèse commence en début de mitose lorsque le site de division est déterminé par la formation d'un anneau d'acto-myosine. Le septum, lui, est formé uniquement en fin de mitose par la contraction de l'anneau d'actomyosine. Cette contraction est sous le contrôle d'un réseau de signalisation cellulaire appelé le «réseau d'initiation de synthèse du septum » ou « septation initiation network » (SIN), qui se situe sur les pôles du fuseau mitotique. L'activation du SIN dépend d'une GTPase appelé spg1p dont le statut nucléotidique dépend des protéines cdclóp et byr4p qui forment un complexe qui favorise l'hydrolyse du GTP en GDP. En début de mitose, cdc16p ne se situe plus sur les poles du fuseau mitotique. La GTPase spg1p se retrouve donc principalement sous sa forme couplée au GTP, ce quí va permettre son interaction avec la kinase cdc7p. Cette protéine ainsi que deux autres kinases sid2p (avec mob1p) et sid1p (avec cdc14p) permettent la transmission du signal d'initiation de la contraction de l'anneau d'acto-myosine en fin d'anaphase. Pendant l'anaphase, cdc7p, sid1 p et cdc14p localisent sur un des deux pôles du fuseau mitotique. Il en est de même pour cdc1p et by14p et le pôle contenant cdc16p et byr4p est toujours différent de celui ou les régulateurs positifs du SIN se situent. En fin de cytokinèse, cdc16 et byr4p se retrouvent à nouveau sur chaque pôle des deux cellules filles. Dans cette étude, nous nous sommes concentrés sur l'analyse de la localisation de cdc16p pendant la mitose en utilisant une technique de microscopie en temps réel. Nous avons été en mesure de déterminer que le départ de cdc16p du pole s'effectue juste avant la formation du fuseau mitotique. Nous avons aussi découvert que la localisation asymétrique des composants du SIN dépend fortement de l'entrée en anaphase B. Finalement, Nous avons montré que distribution asymétrique des composants du SIN sur les pôles du fuseau mitotique dépendait aussi fortement de !a présence de l'anneau d'acto-myosine. Ceci nous permet donc de proposer l'existence d'un mécanisme cellulaire qui permet de s'assurer que la cytokinèse est achevée avant de diminuer la signalisation du SIN. Par ailleurs, des études biochimiques nous ont permis de montrer que cdc16p est dégradé par le proteosome. Ces travaux ont permis la découverte de nouveaux modes de régulation du SIN.

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

An improved approach for predicting the distribution of rare and endangered species from occurrence and pseudo-absence data

1. Few examples of habitat-modelling studies of rare and endangered species exist in the literature, although from a conservation perspective predicting their distribution would prove particularly useful. Paucity of data and lack of valid absences are the probable reasons for this shortcoming. Analytic solutions to accommodate the lack of absence include the ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) and the use of generalized linear models (GLM) with simulated pseudo-absences. 2. In this study we tested a new approach to generating pseudo-absences, based on a preliminary ENFA habitat suitability (HS) map, for the endangered species Eryngium alpinum. This method of generating pseudo-absences was compared with two others: (i) use of a GLM with pseudo-absences generated totally at random, and (ii) use of an ENFA only. 3. The influence of two different spatial resolutions (i.e. grain) was also assessed for tackling the dilemma of quality (grain) vs. quantity (number of occurrences). Each combination of the three above-mentioned methods with the two grains generated a distinct HS map. 4. Four evaluation measures were used for comparing these HS maps: total deviance explained, best kappa, Gini coefficient and minimal predicted area (MPA). The last is a new evaluation criterion proposed in this study. 5. Results showed that (i) GLM models using ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence provide better results, except for the MPA value, and that (ii) quality (spatial resolution and locational accuracy) of the data appears to be more important than quantity (number of occurrences). Furthermore, the proposed MPA value is suggested as a useful measure of model evaluation when used to complement classical statistical measures. 6. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that the use of ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence is a possible way to enhance the quality of GLM-based potential distribution maps and that data quality (i.e. spatial resolution) prevails over quantity (i.e. number of data). Increased accuracy of potential distribution maps could help to define better suitable areas for species protection and reintroduction.

Carbonate Rock Pore Size Distribution Determination through Iowa Pore Index Testing, MLR-15-01, 2015

The Iowa Pore Index (IPI) measures the pore system of carbonate (limestone and dolomite) rocks using pressurized water to infiltrate the pore system. This technique provides quantitative results for the primary and capillary (secondary) pores in carbonate rocks. These results are used in conjunction with chemical and mineralogical test results to calculate a quality number, which is used as a predictor of aggregate performance in Portland cement concrete (PCC) leading to the durability classification of the aggregate. This study had two main objectives: to determine the effect different aggregate size has on IPI test results and to establish the precision of IPI test and test apparatus. It was found that smaller aggregate size fractions could be correlated to the standard 1/2”-3/4” size sample. Generally, a particle size decrease was accompanied by a slight decrease in IPI values. The IPI testing also showed fairly good agreement of the secondary pore index number between the 1/2”-3/4”and the 3/8”-1/2” fraction. The #4-3/8” showed a greater difference of the secondary number from the 1/2”-3/4” fraction. The precision of the IPI test was established as a standard deviation (Sr) of 2.85 (Primary) and 0.87 (Secondary) with a repeatability limit (%r) of 8.5% and 14.9% for the primary and secondary values, respectively.

Report on the Iowa Department of Human Services – Central Distribution Center for the year ended June 30, 2014

Report on the Iowa Department of Human Services – Central Distribution Center for the year ended June 30, 2014

Do stacked species distribution models reflect altitudinal diversity patterns?

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of stacked species distribution models in predicting the alpha and gamma species diversity patterns of two important plant clades along elevation in the Andes. We modelled the distribution of the species in the Anthurium genus (53 species) and the Bromeliaceae family (89 species) using six modelling techniques. We combined all of the predictions for the same species in ensemble models based on two different criteria: the average of the rescaled predictions by all techniques and the average of the best techniques. The rescaled predictions were then reclassified into binary predictions (presence/absence). By stacking either the original predictions or binary predictions for both ensemble procedures, we obtained four different species richness models per taxa. The gamma and alpha diversity per elevation band (500 m) was also computed. To evaluate the prediction abilities for the four predictions of species richness and gamma diversity, the models were compared with the real data along an elevation gradient that was independently compiled by specialists. Finally, we also tested whether our richness models performed better than a null model of altitudinal changes of diversity based on the literature. Stacking of the ensemble prediction of the individual species models generated richness models that proved to be well correlated with the observed alpha diversity richness patterns along elevation and with the gamma diversity derived from the literature. Overall, these models tend to overpredict species richness. The use of the ensemble predictions from the species models built with different techniques seems very promising for modelling of species assemblages. Stacking of the binary models reduced the over-prediction, although more research is needed. The randomisation test proved to be a promising method for testing the performance of the stacked models, but other implementations may still be developed.

Recent Observations of the Distribution and Status of Bluntnose Darters and Crystal Darters in Iowa

The distribution and status of Iowa's fishes were last extensively described in Iowa Fish and Fishing (Harlan et al. 1987). Since then, numerous fish collections have been made in Iowa's interior and bordering rivers and streams. Excluding non-native species, there have been three documented accounts of new fish species distributional records in Iowa since 1987. In this paper, I describe new collections of Crystal Darter (Crystallaria asprella) and Bluntnose Darter (Etheostoma chlorosomum) from the Mississippi River. The first documented specimen of C. asprella in Iowa was collected in Pool 11 of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) in 1995. One specimen of E. chlorosomum was collected in Pool 13 of the UMR in 1998, and another was collected in 1999. The bluntnose darter had not been collected since 1975 and was generally thought to be extirpated in Iowa.

Pore-scale modeling of two-phase flow instabilities in porous media

Les problèmes d'écoulements multiphasiques en média poreux sont d'un grand intérêt pour de nombreuses applications scientifiques et techniques ; comme la séquestration de C02, l'extraction de pétrole et la dépollution des aquifères. La complexité intrinsèque des systèmes multiphasiques et l'hétérogénéité des formations géologiques sur des échelles multiples représentent un challenge majeur pour comprendre et modéliser les déplacements immiscibles dans les milieux poreux. Les descriptions à l'échelle supérieure basées sur la généralisation de l'équation de Darcy sont largement utilisées, mais ces méthodes sont sujettes à limitations pour les écoulements présentant de l'hystérèse. Les avancées récentes en terme de performances computationnelles et le développement de méthodes précises pour caractériser l'espace interstitiel ainsi que la distribution des phases ont favorisé l'utilisation de modèles qui permettent une résolution fine à l'échelle du pore. Ces modèles offrent un aperçu des caractéristiques de l'écoulement qui ne peuvent pas être facilement observées en laboratoire et peuvent être utilisé pour expliquer la différence entre les processus physiques et les modèles à l'échelle macroscopique existants. L'objet premier de la thèse se porte sur la simulation numérique directe : les équations de Navier-Stokes sont résolues dans l'espace interstitiel et la méthode du volume de fluide (VOF) est employée pour suivre l'évolution de l'interface. Dans VOF, la distribution des phases est décrite par une fonction fluide pour l'ensemble du domaine et des conditions aux bords particulières permettent la prise en compte des propriétés de mouillage du milieu poreux. Dans la première partie de la thèse, nous simulons le drainage dans une cellule Hele-Shaw 2D avec des obstacles cylindriques. Nous montrons que l'approche proposée est applicable même pour des ratios de densité et de viscosité très importants et permet de modéliser la transition entre déplacement stable et digitation visqueuse. Nous intéressons ensuite à l'interprétation de la pression capillaire à l'échelle macroscopique. Nous montrons que les techniques basées sur la moyenne spatiale de la pression présentent plusieurs limitations et sont imprécises en présence d'effets visqueux et de piégeage. Au contraire, une définition basée sur l'énergie permet de séparer les contributions capillaires des effets visqueux. La seconde partie de la thèse est consacrée à l'investigation des effets d'inertie associés aux reconfigurations irréversibles du ménisque causé par l'interface des instabilités. Comme prototype pour ces phénomènes, nous étudions d'abord la dynamique d'un ménisque dans un pore angulaire. Nous montrons que, dans un réseau de pores cubiques, les sauts et reconfigurations sont si fréquents que les effets d'inertie mènent à différentes configurations des fluides. A cause de la non-linéarité du problème, la distribution des fluides influence le travail des forces de pression, qui, à son tour, provoque une chute de pression dans la loi de Darcy. Cela suggère que ces phénomènes devraient être pris en compte lorsque que l'on décrit l'écoulement multiphasique en média poreux à l'échelle macroscopique. La dernière partie de la thèse s'attache à démontrer la validité de notre approche par une comparaison avec des expériences en laboratoire : un drainage instable dans un milieu poreux quasi 2D (une cellule Hele-Shaw avec des obstacles cylindriques). Plusieurs simulations sont tournées sous différentes conditions aux bords et en utilisant différents modèles (modèle intégré 2D et modèle 3D) afin de comparer certaines quantités macroscopiques avec les observations au laboratoire correspondantes. Malgré le challenge de modéliser des déplacements instables, où, par définition, de petites perturbations peuvent grandir sans fin, notre approche numérique apporte de résultats satisfaisants pour tous les cas étudiés. - Problems involving multiphase flow in porous media are of great interest in many scientific and engineering applications including Carbon Capture and Storage, oil recovery and groundwater remediation. The intrinsic complexity of multiphase systems and the multi scale heterogeneity of geological formations represent the major challenges to understand and model immiscible displacement in porous media. Upscaled descriptions based on generalization of Darcy's law are widely used, but they are subject to several limitations for flow that exhibit hysteric and history- dependent behaviors. Recent advances in high performance computing and the development of accurate methods to characterize pore space and phase distribution have fostered the use of models that allow sub-pore resolution. These models provide an insight on flow characteristics that cannot be easily achieved by laboratory experiments and can be used to explain the gap between physical processes and existing macro-scale models. We focus on direct numerical simulations: we solve the Navier-Stokes equations for mass and momentum conservation in the pore space and employ the Volume Of Fluid (VOF) method to track the evolution of the interface. In the VOF the distribution of the phases is described by a fluid function (whole-domain formulation) and special boundary conditions account for the wetting properties of the porous medium. In the first part of this thesis we simulate drainage in a 2-D Hele-Shaw cell filled with cylindrical obstacles. We show that the proposed approach can handle very large density and viscosity ratios and it is able to model the transition from stable displacement to viscous fingering. We then focus on the interpretation of the macroscopic capillary pressure showing that pressure average techniques are subject to several limitations and they are not accurate in presence of viscous effects and trapping. On the contrary an energy-based definition allows separating viscous and capillary contributions. In the second part of the thesis we investigate inertia effects associated with abrupt and irreversible reconfigurations of the menisci caused by interface instabilities. As a prototype of these phenomena we first consider the dynamics of a meniscus in an angular pore. We show that in a network of cubic pores, jumps and reconfigurations are so frequent that inertia effects lead to different fluid configurations. Due to the non-linearity of the problem, the distribution of the fluids influences the work done by pressure forces, which is in turn related to the pressure drop in Darcy's law. This suggests that these phenomena should be taken into account when upscaling multiphase flow in porous media. The last part of the thesis is devoted to proving the accuracy of the numerical approach by validation with experiments of unstable primary drainage in a quasi-2D porous medium (i.e., Hele-Shaw cell filled with cylindrical obstacles). We perform simulations under different boundary conditions and using different models (2-D integrated and full 3-D) and we compare several macroscopic quantities with the corresponding experiment. Despite the intrinsic challenges of modeling unstable displacement, where by definition small perturbations can grow without bounds, the numerical method gives satisfactory results for all the cases studied.

Ant species distribution along a topographic gradient in a "terra-firme" forest reserve in Central Amazonia

In Amazonia, topographical variations in soil and forest structure within "terra-firme" ecosystems are important factors correlated with terrestrial invertebrates' distribution. The objective of this work was to assess the effects of soil clay content and slope on ant species distribution over a 25 km² grid covering the natural topographic continuum. Using three complementary sampling methods (sardine baits, pitfall traps and litter samples extracted in Winkler sacks), 300 subsamples of each method were taken in 30 plots distributed over a wet tropical forest in the Ducke Reserve (Manaus, AM, Brazil). An amount of 26,814 individuals from 11 subfamilies, 54 genera, 85 species and 152 morphospecies was recorded (Pheidole represented 37% of all morphospecies). The genus Eurhopalothrix was registered for the first time for the reserve. Species number was not correlated with slope or clay content, except for the species sampled from litter. However, the Principal Coordinate Analysis indicated that the main pattern of species composition from pitfall and litter samples was related to clay content. Almost half of the species were found only in valleys or only on plateaus, which suggests that most of them are habitat specialists. In Central Amazonia, soil texture is usually correlated with vegetation structure and moisture content, creating different microhabitats, which probably account for the observed differences in ant community structure.