Modelling of non-stationary processes using radial basis function networks

This paper reports preliminary progress on a principled approach to modelling nonstationary phenomena using neural networks. We are concerned with both parameter and model order complexity estimation. The basic methodology assumes a Bayesian foundation. However to allow the construction of pragmatic models, successive approximations have to be made to permit computational tractibility. The lowest order corresponds to the (Extended) Kalman filter approach to parameter estimation which has already been applied to neural networks. We illustrate some of the deficiencies of the existing approaches and discuss our preliminary generalisations, by considering the application to nonstationary time series.

Tracking of non-stationary time-series using resource allocating RBF networks

In this paper, we discuss some practical implications for implementing adaptable network algorithms applied to non-stationary time series problems. Using electricity load data and training with the extended Kalman filter, we demonstrate that the dynamic model-order increment procedure of the resource allocating RBF network (RAN) is highly sensitive to the parameters of the novelty criterion. We investigate the use of system noise and forgetting factors for increasing the plasticity of the Kalman filter training algorithm, and discuss the consequences for on-line model order selection. We also find that a recently-proposed alternative novelty criterion, found to be more robust in stationary environments, does not fare so well in the non-stationary case due to the need for filter adaptability during training.

A review of non-pharmacological and pharmacological management of seasonal and perennial allergic conjunctivitis

Allergic eye disease encompasses a group of hypersensitivity disorders which primarily affect the conjunctiva and its prevalence is increasing. It is estimated to affect 8% of patients attending optometric practice but is poorly managed and rarely involves ophthalmic assessment. Seasonal allergic conjunctivitis (SAC) is the most common form of allergic eye disease (90%), followed by perennial allergic conjunctivitis (PAC; 5%). Both are type 1 IgE mediated hypersensitivity reactions where mast cells play an important role in pathophysiology. The signs and symptoms are similar but SAC occurs periodically whereas PAC occurs year round. Despite being a relatively mild condition, the effects on the quality of life can be profound and therefore they demand attention. Primary management of SAC and PAC involves avoidance strategies depending on the responsible allergen(s) to prevent the hypersensitivity reaction. Cooled tear supplements and cold compresses may help bring relief. Pharmacological agents may become necessary as it is not possible to completely avoid the allergen(s). There are a wide range of anti-allergic medications available, such as mast cell stabilisers, antihistamines and dual-action agents. Severe cases refractory to conventional treatment require anti-inflammatories, immunomodulators or immunotherapy. Additional qualifications are required to gain access to these medications, but entry-level optometrists must offer advice and supportive therapy. Based on current evidence, the efficacy of anti-allergic medications appears equivocal so prescribing should relate to patient preference, dosing and cost. More studies with standardised methodologies are necessary elicit the most effective anti-allergic medications but those with dual-actions are likely to be first line agents.

Bifurcating trajectory of non-diffractive electromagnetic airy pulse

The explicit expression for spatial-temporal Airy pulse is derived from the Maxwell's equations in paraxial approximation. The trajectory of the pulse in the time-space coordinates is analysed. The existence of a bifurcation point that separates regions with qualitatively different features of the pulse propagation is demonstrated. At this point the velocity of the pulse becomes infinite and the orientation of it changes to the opposite.

Biocomposites of non-crosslinked natural and synthetic polymers

Biocomposite films comprising a non-crosslinked, natural polymer (collagen) and a synthetic polymer, poly(var epsilon-caprolactone) (PCL), have been produced by impregnation of lyophilised collagen mats with a solution of PCL in dichloromethane followed by solvent evaporation. This approach avoids the toxicity problems associated with chemical crosslinking. Distinct changes in film morphology, from continuous surface coating to open porous format, were achieved by variation of processing parameters such as collagen:PCL ratio and the weight of the starting lyophilised collagen mat. Collagenase digestion indicated that the collagen content of 1:4 and 1:8 collagen:PCL biocomposites was almost totally accessible for enzymatic digestion indicating a high degree of collagen exposure for interaction with other ECM proteins or cells contacting the biomaterial surface. Much reduced collagen exposure (around 50%) was measured for the 1:20 collagen:PCL materials. These findings were consistent with the SEM examination of collagen:PCL biocomposites which revealed a highly porous morphology for the 1:4 and 1:8 blends but virtually complete coverage of the collagen component by PCL in the1:20 samples. Investigations of the attachment and spreading characteristics of human osteoblast (HOB) cells on PCL films and collagen:PCL materials respectively, indicated that HOB cells poorly recognised PCL but attachment and spreading were much improved on the biocomposites. The non-chemically crosslinked, collagen:PCL biocomposites described are expected to provide a useful addition to the range of biomaterials and matrix systems for tissue engineering.

Inhibitory effects of persistent apoptotic cells on monoclonal antibody production in vitro:simple removal of non-viable cells improves antibody productivity by hybridoma cells in culture

Cells undergoing apoptosis in vivo are rapidly detected and cleared by phagocytes. Swift recognition and removal of apoptotic cells is important for normal tissue homeostasis and failure in the underlying clearance mechanisms has pathological consequences associated with inflammatory and auto-immune diseases. Cell cultures in vitro usually lack the capacity for removal of non-viable cells because of the absence of phagocytes and, as such, fail to emulate the healthy in vivo micro-environment from which dead cells are absent. While a key objective in cell culture is to maintain viability at maximal levels, cell death is unavoidable and non-viable cells frequently contaminate cultures in significant numbers. Here we show that the presence of apoptotic cells in monoclonal antibody-producing hybridoma cultures has markedly detrimental effects on antibody productivity. Removal of apoptotic hybridoma cells by macrophages at the time of seeding resulted in 100% improved antibody productivity that was, surprisingly to us, most pronounced late on in the cultures. Furthermore, we were able to recapitulate this effect using novel super-paramagnetic Dead-Cert Nanoparticles to remove non-viable cells simply and effectively at culture seeding. These results (1) provide direct evidence that apoptotic cells have a profound influence on their non-phagocytic neighbors in culture and (2) demonstrate the effectiveness of a simple dead-cell removal strategy for improving antibody manufacture in vitro.

Variational Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian smoothing of non-linear niffusions

In this paper we develop set of novel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian smoothing of partially observed non-linear diffusion processes. The sampling algorithms developed herein use a deterministic approximation to the posterior distribution over paths as the proposal distribution for a mixture of an independence and a random walk sampler. The approximating distribution is sampled by simulating an optimized time-dependent linear diffusion process derived from the recently developed variational Gaussian process approximation method. Flexible blocking strategies are introduced to further improve mixing, and thus the efficiency, of the sampling algorithms. The algorithms are tested on two diffusion processes: one with double-well potential drift and another with SINE drift. The new algorithm's accuracy and efficiency is compared with state-of-the-art hybrid Monte Carlo based path sampling. It is shown that in practical, finite sample, applications the algorithm is accurate except in the presence of large observation errors and low observation densities, which lead to a multi-modal structure in the posterior distribution over paths. More importantly, the variational approximation assisted sampling algorithm outperforms hybrid Monte Carlo in terms of computational efficiency, except when the diffusion process is densely observed with small errors in which case both algorithms are equally efficient.

Evolution of non-uniformly seeded warm clouds in idealized turbulent conditions

We present a mean-field model of cloud evolution that describes droplet growth due to condensation and collisions and droplet loss due to fallout. The model accounts for the effects of cloud turbulence both in a large-scale turbulent mixing and in a microphysical enhancement of condensation and collisions. The model allows for an effective numerical simulation by a scheme that is conservative in water mass and keeps accurate count of the number of droplets. We first study the homogeneous situation and determine how the rain-initiation time depends on the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and turbulence level. We then consider clouds with an inhomogeneous concentration of CCN and evaluate how the rain initiation time and the effective optical depth vary in space and time. We argue that over-seeding even a part of a cloud by small hygroscopic nuclei, one can substantially delay the onset and increase the amount of precipitation.

Transmission of non-uniform OTDM channels in nonlinearly-guided dispersion-managed fibre system

The effects of channel inequality on nonlinear signal switching in a nonlinear optical fiber loop mirror (NOLM) were investigated. It was found that the channel-to-channel amplitude differences in optical time division multiplexing (OTDM) have strong impact on swiching behavior of individual channels in a 2R regenerator. The optical pulses in different channels face either suppression of the amplitude noise or increase in noise, depending on the inter-channel amplitude difference. It was stated that appropriate control of the channel uniformity in the OTDM transmitters is required to support stable long-haul transmission in 2R regenerated systems.

The colonisation of non-sterile wheat straw by fungi

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The influence of non-metallic inclusions upon the properties of linepipe steels

The principal aim of this work was to determine the role of non-metallic inclusions in the process of hydrogen stepwise cracking (SWC). Additionally, the influence of inclusions upon the notch ductility of hydrogen charged (HC) and uncharged (UN) tensile specimens was examined. To obtain a basis for experiment a series of low carbon-manganese steels were prepared by induction melting. In order to produce variations in the composition, morphology, volume fraction, size and distribution of the inclusions the steel chemistry was adjusted prior to casting by additions of deoxidiser and Ca-Si injection. Sections of each ingot were hot rolled. Metallography, image analysis, mechanical tests and hydrogen SWC tests were then carried out. The volume fraction, morphology, and shape of inclusions influenced the tensile ductility of the steels. Marked anisotropy was found in the steels containing type II MnS inclusions at all rolling temperatures, whereas the fully Ca treated steel was isotropic. It was found that several inclusion parameters (projected length PL, mean free distance MFD, nearest-neighbour distance NND) correlated with fracture strain. An increase in inclusion volume fraction and/or the dimension of inclusions on a plane parallel to the plane of fracture led to a decrease in fracture strain. The inclusion parameters did not correlate with the fracture strains for the HC tensile specimens. However, large or clusters of inclusions acted as the principal sites for crack initiation. `Fisheyes' or areas of `flat' fracture were often found on these fracture surfaces. The criteria for SWC initiation was found to be either large inclusions or clusters of inclusions. As the PL of inclusions increased the probability of large SWCs occurring increased. SWC initiation at inclusions was believed to occur at a critical concentration of hydrogen. Factors which assisted the concentration of hydrogen at inclusions were discussed. None of the proposed mechanisms of hydrogen embrittlement could be identified as the single cause of SWC.

The effect of haem limitation and iron restriction on outer membrane proteins and on respiratory systems of non typable Haemophilus influenzae

The effects of haem limitation and iron restriction on cells of non typable Haemophilus influenzae were investigated. Haem limitation was achieved by adding concentrations of haem to growth media which resulted in substantial decreases in final cell yields. Iron restriction was achieved by substituting protoporphyrin IX (PPIX) for haem in the growth medium and adding an iron chelator to the system. The effect of these nutrient limitations on a) outer membrane composition, and b) respiratory systems of non typable H.influenzae was investigated. Several of the strains examined produced new PPIX-specific outer membrane proteins when cultured utilising PPIX as a porphyrin source. The immune response of patients with bronchiectasis to outer membrane antigens of H.influenzae cultured under iron-restricted conditions was analysed by ELISA and immunoblotting techniques. ELISA analysis revealed that individuals with severe bronchiectasis had high titres of antibodies directed against H.influenzae OMs in both serum and sputum. Immunoblotting with homologous serum showed that where PPIX-specific OMPs were produced they were antigenic and were recognised by patients' serum. This suggested that these H.influenzae OMPs may be expressed in vivo. Additionally, the development of the immune responses to non typable H.influenzae outer membrane antigens was investigated using a rat lung model. Bacteria encased in agar beads were inoculated intratracheally into rat lungs, infection was established, and the immune response monitored for 6 weeks. The animals developed antibodies to PPIX-specific OMPs during the course of infection, providing further evidence that H.influenzae express these novel OMP antigens when growing in vivo. Studies in vitro on respiratory systems of phenotypically altered H.influenzae showed that bacteria grown utilising PPIX as a porphyrin source, or under conditions of iron-restriction produced ten fold fewer cytochromes than cells grown in nutrient excess, while haem limited H.influenzae produced no detectable cytochromes. Respiration of various substrates was depressed in haem limited and in PPIX-grown cultures as compared with cells grown in nutrient excess.

The role and relevance of non-government aid:a case study of Kenya

How effective are non-government organisations (NG0s) in their response to Third World poverty? That is the question which this thesis examines. The thesis begins with an overview of the problems facing Third World communities, and notes the way in which people in Britain have responded through NG0s. A second part of the thesis sets out the issues on which the analysis of NGOs has been made. These are: - the ways in which NGOs analyse the process of development; - the use of 'improving nutrition' and 'promoting self-reliance' as special objectives by NG0s; and - the nature of rural change, and the implications for NGOs as agents of rural development. Kenya is taken as a case study. Firstly the political and economic structure of the country is studied, and the natures of development, nutritional problems and self-reliance in the Kenyan context are noted. The study then focusses attention onto Kitui District, an area of Kenya which at the time of the study was suffering from drought. However, it is argued that the problems of Kitui District and the constraints to change there are as much a consequence of Kenya's structural underdevelopment as of reduced rainfall. Against this background the programmes of some British NGOs in the country are examined, and it is concluded that much of their work has little relevance to the principal problems which have been identified. A final part of the thesis takes a wider look at the policies and practices of NG0s. Issues such as the choice of countries in which NGOs work, how they are represented overseas, and their educational role in Britain are considered. It is concluded that while all NGOs have a concern for the conditions in which the poorest communities of the Third World live, many NGOs take a quite narrow view of development problems, giving only little recognition to the international and intranational political and economic systems which contribute to Third World poverty.