993 resultados para Probabilistic methods
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En este artículo se pretende mostrar cómo la utilización de métodos visuales en la investigación contribuye a potenciar la participación activa de las personas con TMG. Se utiliza como ejemplo un estudio de caso de corte cualitativo que incorpora tres actividades de componente visual (el dibujo “el río de la vida”, las fotografías y el dibujo de proyección de futuro) para favorecer la reflexión narrada que, sobre sus experiencias y vivencias, desarrollan cinco personas con TMG. El uso de las fotografías y dibujos en este estudio permite afirmar que estas estrategias se han mostrado válidas para acceder, en la medida que los participantes han querido, a esferas de vida personales en trayectorias vitales determinadas por la enfermedad mental
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Miller and Gerlai proposed two methods for determining shoal membership in Danio rerio, one based on momentary mean inter-individual distances and the other on post hoc analysis of the trajectories of nearest-neighbor distances. We propose a method based on momentary nearest-neighbor distances and compare the three methods using simulation. In general, our method yielded results that were more similar to their second method than their first one, and is computationally simpler.
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Chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGvHD) is the leading cause of late nonrelapse mortality (transplant-related mortality) after hematopoietic stem cell transplant. Given that there are a wide range of treatment options for cGvHD, assessment of the associated costs and efficacy can help clinicians and health care providers allocate health care resources more efficiently. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP) compared with rituximab (Rmb) and with imatinib (Imt) in patients with cGvHD at 5 years from the perspective of the Spanish National Health System. METHODS: The model assessed the incremental cost-effectiveness/utility ratio of ECP versus Rmb or Imt for 1000 hypothetical patients by using microsimulation cost-effectiveness techniques. Model probabilities were obtained from the literature. Treatment pathways and adverse events were evaluated taking clinical opinion and published reports into consideration. Local data on costs (2010 Euros) and health care resources utilization were validated by the clinical authors. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of the model. RESULTS: The greater efficacy of ECP resulted in a gain of 0.011 to 0.024 quality-adjusted life-year in the first year and 0.062 to 0.094 at year 5 compared with Rmb or Imt. The results showed that the higher acquisition cost of ECP versus Imt was compensated for at 9 months by greater efficacy; this higher cost was partially compensated for ( 517) by year 5 versus Rmb. After 9 months, ECP was dominant (cheaper and more effective) compared with Imt. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ECP versus Rmb was 29,646 per life-year gained and 24,442 per quality-adjusted life-year gained at year 2.5. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the results. The main study limitation was that to assess relative treatment effects, only small studies were available for indirect comparison. CONCLUSION: ECP as a third-line therapy for cGvHD is a more cost-effective strategy than Rmb or Imt.
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Objectives: The aim of the study was to combine clinical results from the European Cohort of the REVERSE study and costs associated with the addition of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) to optimal medical therapy (OMT) in patients with mild symptomatic (NYHA I-II) or asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction and markers of cardiac dyssynchrony in Spain. Methods: A Markov model was developed with CRT + OMT (CRT-ON) versus OMT only (CRT-OFF) based on a retrospective cost-effectiveness analysis. Raw data was derived from literature and expert opinion, reflecting clinical and economic consequences of patient"s management in Spain. Time horizon was 10 years. Both costs (euro 2010) and effects were discounted at 3 percent per annum. Results: CRT-ON showed higher total costs than CRT-OFF; however, CRT reduced the length of hospitalization in ICU by 94 percent (0.006 versus 0.091 days) and general ward in by 34 percent (0.705 versus 1.076 days). Surviving CRT-ON patients (88.2 percent versus 77.5 percent) remained in better functional class longer, and they achieved an improvement of 0.9 life years (LYGs) and 0.77 years quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). CRT-ON proved to be cost-effective after 6 years, except for the 7th year due to battery depletion. At 10 years, the results were 18,431 per LYG and 21,500 per QALY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed CRT-ON was cost-effective in 75.4 percent of the cases at 10 years. Conclusions: The use of CRT added to OMT represents an efficient use of resources in patients suffering from heart failure in NYHA functional classes I and II.
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By reconstructing the nutrient balance of a Catalan v illage circa 1861-65 we examine the sustainability of organic agricultural sy stems in the northwest Mediterranean bioregion prior to the green rev olution and the question of whether the nutrients extracted f rom the soil were replenished. With a population density of 59 inhabitants per square km, similar to other northern European rural areas at that time, and a lower liv estock density per cropland unit, this v illage experienced a manure shortage. The gap was f illed by other labour-intensiv e way s of transf erring nutrients f rom uncultiv ated areas into the cropland. Key elements in this agricultural sy stem were v iney ards because they hav e f ew nutrient requirements, and woodland and scrublands as sources of relev ant amounts of nutrients collected in sev eral ways.
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The detailed in-vivo characterization of subcortical brain structures is essential not only to understand the basic organizational principles of the healthy brain but also for the study of the involvement of the basal ganglia in brain disorders. The particular tissue properties of basal ganglia - most importantly their high iron content, strongly affect the contrast of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) images, hampering the accurate automated assessment of these regions. This technical challenge explains the substantial controversy in the literature about the magnitude, directionality and neurobiological interpretation of basal ganglia structural changes estimated from MRI and computational anatomy techniques. My scientific project addresses the pertinent need for accurate automated delineation of basal ganglia using two complementary strategies: ? Empirical testing of the utility of novel imaging protocols to provide superior contrast in the basal ganglia and to quantify brain tissue properties; ? Improvement of the algorithms for the reliable automated detection of basal ganglia and thalamus Previous research demonstrated that MRI protocols based on magnetization transfer (MT) saturation maps provide optimal grey-white matter contrast in subcortical structures compared with the widely used Tl-weighted (Tlw) images (Helms et al., 2009). Under the assumption of a direct impact of brain tissue properties on MR contrast my first study addressed the question of the mechanisms underlying the regional specificities effect of the basal ganglia. I used established whole-brain voxel-based methods to test for grey matter volume differences between MT and Tlw imaging protocols with an emphasis on subcortical structures. I applied a regression model to explain the observed grey matter differences from the regionally specific impact of brain tissue properties on the MR contrast. The results of my first project prompted further methodological developments to create adequate priors for the basal ganglia and thalamus allowing optimal automated delineation of these structures in a probabilistic tissue classification framework. I established a standardized workflow for manual labelling of the basal ganglia, thalamus and cerebellar dentate to create new tissue probability maps from quantitative MR maps featuring optimal grey-white matter contrast in subcortical areas. The validation step of the new tissue priors included a comparison of the classification performance with the existing probability maps. In my third project I continued investigating the factors impacting automated brain tissue classification that result in interpretational shortcomings when using Tlw MRI data in the framework of computational anatomy. While the intensity in Tlw images is predominantly
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Objective To evaluate the knowledge about diagnostic imaging methods among primary care and medical emergency physicians. Materials and Methods Study developed with 119 primary care and medical emergency physicians in Montes Claros, MG, Brazil, by means of a structured questionnaire about general knowledge and indications of imaging methods in common clinical settings. A rate of correct responses corresponding to ≥ 80% was considered as satisfactory. The Poisson regression (PR) model was utilized in the data analysis. Results Among the 81 individuals who responded the questionnaire, 65% (n = 53) demonstrated to have satisfactory general knowledge and 44% (n = 36) gave correct responses regarding indications of imaging methods. Respectively, 65% (n = 53) and 51% (n = 41) of the respondents consider that radiography and computed tomography do not use ionizing radiation. The prevalence of a satisfactory general knowledge about imaging methods was associated with medical residency in the respondents' work field (PR = 4.55; IC 95%: 1.18-16.67; p-value: 0.03), while the prevalence of correct responses regarding indication of imaging methods was associated with the professional practice in primary health care (PR = 1.79; IC 95%: 1.16-2.70; p-value: 0.01). Conclusion Major deficiencies were observed as regards the knowledge about imaging methods among physicians, with better results obtained by those involved in primary health care and by residents.
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Contemporary public administrations have become increasingly more complex, having to cordinate actions with emerging actors in the public and the private spheres. In this scenario the modern ICTs have begun to be seen as an ideal vehicle to resolve some of the problems of public administration. We argue that there is a clear need to explore the extent to which public administrations are undergoing a process of transformation towards a netowork government linked to the systematic incorporation of ICTs in their basic activities. Through critically analysing a selection of e-government evaluation reports, we conclude that research should be carried out if we are to build a solid government assessment framework based on network-like organisation characteristics.
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The User-centered design (UCD) game is a tool forhuman-computer interaction practitioners to demonstrate the key user-centered design methodsand how they interrelate in the design process in an interactive and participatory manner. The target audiences are departments and institutions unfamiliar with UCD but whose work is related to the definition, creation, and update of a product or service.
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Molecular probe techniques have made important contributions to the determination of microstructure of surfactant assemblies such as size, stability, micropolarity and conformation. Conductivity and surface tension were used to determine the critical aggregation concentration (cac) of polymer-surfactant complexes and the critical micellar concentration (cmc) of aqueous micellar aggregates. The results are compared with those of fluorescent techniques. Several surfactant systems were examined, 1-butanol-sodium dodecylsulfate (SDS) mixtures, solutions containing poly(ethylene oxide)-SDS, poly(vinylpyrrolidone)-SDS and poly(acrylic acid)-alkyltrimethylammonium bromide complexes. We found differences between the cac and cmc values obtained by conductivity or surface tension and those obtained by techniques which use hydrophobic probe.
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Seaports play an important part in the wellbeing of a nation. Many nations are highly dependent on foreign trade and most trade is done using sea vessels. This study is part of a larger research project, where a simulation model is required in order to create further analyses on Finnish macro logistical networks. The objective of this study is to create a system dynamic simulation model, which gives an accurate forecast for the development of demand of Finnish seaports up to 2030. The emphasis on this study is to show how it is possible to create a detailed harbor demand System Dynamic model with the help of statistical methods. The used forecasting methods were ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) and regression models. The created simulation model gives a forecast with confidence intervals and allows studying different scenarios. The building process was found to be a useful one and the built model can be expanded to be more detailed. Required capacity for other parts of the Finnish logistical system could easily be included in the model.
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This paper proposes a pose-based algorithm to solve the full SLAM problem for an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), navigating in an unknown and possibly unstructured environment. The technique incorporate probabilistic scan matching with range scans gathered from a mechanical scanning imaging sonar (MSIS) and the robot dead-reckoning displacements estimated from a Doppler velocity log (DVL) and a motion reference unit (MRU). The proposed method utilizes two extended Kalman filters (EKF). The first, estimates the local path travelled by the robot while grabbing the scan as well as its uncertainty and provides position estimates for correcting the distortions that the vehicle motion produces in the acoustic images. The second is an augment state EKF that estimates and keeps the registered scans poses. The raw data from the sensors are processed and fused in-line. No priory structural information or initial pose are considered. The algorithm has been tested on an AUV guided along a 600 m path within a marina environment, showing the viability of the proposed approach