On the natural variability of the pre-industrial European climate

We suggest that climate variability in Europe for the “pre-industrial” period 1500–1900 is fundamentally a consequence of internal fluctuations of the climate system. This is because a model simulation, using fixed pre-industrial forcing, in several important aspects is consistent with recent observational reconstructions at high temporal resolution. This includes extreme warm and cold seasonal events as well as different measures of the decadal to multi-decadal variance. Significant trends of 50-year duration can be seen in the model simulation. While the global temperature is highly correlated with ENSO (El Nino- Southern Oscillation), European seasonal temperature is only weakly correlated with the global temperature broadly consistent with data from ERA-40 reanalyses. Seasonal temperature anomalies of the European land area are largely controlled by the position of the North Atlantic storm tracks. We believe the result is highly relevant for the interpretation of past observational records suggesting that the effect of external forcing appears to be of secondary importance. That variations in the solar irradiation could have been a credible cause of climate variations during the last centuries, as suggested in some previous studies, is presumably due to the fact that the models used in these studies may have underestimated the internal variability of the climate. The general interpretation from this study is that the past climate is just one of many possible realizations and thus in many respects not reproducible in its time evolution with a general circulation model but only reproducible in a statistical sense.

Tracing pre-eruptive magma degassing using (Pb-210/Ra-226) disequilibria in the volcanic deposits of the 1980-1986 eruption of Mount St. Helens

Disequilibria between Pb-210 and Ra-226 can be used to trace magma degassing, because the intermediate nuclides, particularly Rn-222, are volatile. Products of the 1980-1986 eruptions of Mount St. Helens have been analysed for (Pb-210/Ra-226). Both excesses and deficits of Pb-210 are encountered suggesting rapid gas transfer. The time scale of diffuse, non-eruptive gas escape prior to 1980 as documented by Pb-210 deficits is on the order of a decade using the model developed by Gauthier and Condomines (Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 172 (1999) 111-126) for a non-renewed magma chamber and efficient Rn removal. The time required to build-up Pb-210 excess is much shorter (months) as can be observed from steady increases of (Pb-210/Ra-226) with time during 1980-1982. The formation of Pb-210 excess requires both rapid gas transport through the magma and periodic blocking of gas escape routes. Superposed on this time trend is the natural variability of (Pb-210/Ra-226) in a single eruption caused by tapping magma from various depths. The two time scales of gas transport, to create both Pb-210 deficits and Pb-210 excesses, cannot be reconciled in a single event. Rather Pb-210 deficits are associated with pre-eruptive diffuse degassing, while Pb-210 excesses document the more vigorous degassing associated with eruption and recharge of the system. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Repetitive visiting as a pre-return transnational strategy among youthful Trinidad returnees

Building upon existing Caribbean research by Condon and Duval, we assess how repetitive visiting is, or is not, important to youthful return migrants in their 30s and 40s, who have decided to return more permanently to Trinidad. Is it influential in their social and economic adaptations on return, and does this transnational practice lead to a more permanent return? Our analysis is based on 40 detailed narratives which were collected in 2004-2005. For some returnees, repetitive visiting is influential, for others one visit is enough and for a few, it makes no difference. Yet it is certainly a common practice for 'keeping in touch' among our transnational informants.

Automated pre-processing strategies for species occurrence data used in biodiversity modelling

To construct Biodiversity richness maps from Environmental Niche Models (ENMs) of thousands of species is time consuming. A separate species occurrence data pre-processing phase enables the experimenter to control test AUC score variance due to species dataset size. Besides, removing duplicate occurrences and points with missing environmental data, we discuss the need for coordinate precision, wide dispersion, temporal and synonymity filters. After species data filtering, the final task of a pre-processing phase should be the automatic generation of species occurrence datasets which can then be directly ’plugged-in’ to the ENM. A software application capable of carrying out all these tasks will be a valuable time-saver particularly for large scale biodiversity studies.

Post-abscission, pre-dispersal seeds of Digitalis purpurea remain in a developmental state that is not terminated by desiccation ex planta

Seed quality may be compromised if seeds are harvested before natural dispersal (shedding). It has been shown previously that slow or delayed drying can increase potential quality compared with immediate rapid drying. This study set out to investigate whether or not there is a critical moisture content, below which drying terminates maturation events for seeds harvested after mass maturity but before dispersal. Seeds of foxglove (Digitalis purpurea) in the post-abscission pre-dispersal phase were held at between 15 and 95 % RH for 4 or 8 d, with or without re-hydration to 95 % RH for a further 4 d, before drying to equilibrium at 15 % RH. In addition, dry seeds were primed for 48 h at -1 MPa. Subsequent seed longevity was assessed at 60 % RH and 45 degrees C. Rate of germination and longevity were improved by holding seeds at a wide range of humidities after harvest. Longevity was further improved by re-hydration at 95 % RH. Priming improved the longevity of the seeds dried immediately after harvest, but not of those first held at 95 % RH for 8 d prior to drying. Maturation continued ex planta in these post-abscission, pre-dispersal seeds of D. purpurea dried at 15-80 % RH at a rate correlated positively with RH (cf. ageing of mature seeds). Subsequent re-hydration at 95 % RH enabled a further improvement in quality. Priming seeds initially stored air-dry for 3 months also allowed maturation events to resume. However, once individual seeds within the population had reached maximum longevity, priming had a negative impact on their subsequent survival.

Drought, pod yield, pre-harvest Aspergillus infection and aflatoxin contamination on peanut in Niger

Soil moisture and soil temperature affect pre-harvest infection with Aspergillus flavus and production of aflatoxin. The objectives of our field research in Niger, West Africa, were to: (i) examine the effects of sowing date and irrigation treatments on pod yield, infection with A. flavus and aflatoxin concentration; and (ii) to quantify relations between infection, aflatoxin concentration and soil moisture stress. Seed of an aflatoxin susceptible peanut cv. JL24 was sown at two to four different sowing dates under four irrigation treatments (rainfed and irrigation at 7, 14 and 21 days intervals) between 1991 and 1994, giving 40 different 'environments'. Average air and soil temperatures of 28-34 degrees C were favourable for aflatoxin contamination. CROPGRO-peanut model was used to simulate the occurrence of moisture stress. The model was able to simulate yields of peanut well over the 40 environments (r(2) = 0.67). In general, early sowing produced greater pod yields, as well as less infection and lower aflatoxin concentration. There were negative linear relations between infection (r(2) = 0.62) and the average simulated fraction of extractable soil water (FESW) between flowering and harvest, and between aflatoxin concentration (r(2) = 0.54) and FESW in the last 25 days of pod-filling. This field study confirms that infection and aflatoxin concentration in peanut can be related to the occurrence of soil moisture stress during pod-filling when soil temperatures are near optimal for A. flavus. These relations could form the basis of a decision-support system to predict the risk of aflatoxin contamination in peanuts in similar environments. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.