The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models

The performance of flood inundation models is often assessed using satellite observed data; however these data have inherent uncertainty. In this study we assess the impact of this uncertainty when calibrating a flood inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) for a flood event in December 2006 on the River Dee, North Wales, UK. The flood extent is delineated from an ERS-2 SAR image of the event using an active contour model (snake), and water levels at the flood margin calculated through intersection of the shoreline vector with LiDAR topographic data. Gauged water levels are used to create a reference water surface slope for comparison with the satellite-derived water levels. Residuals between the satellite observed data points and those from the reference line are spatially clustered into groups of similar values. We show that model calibration achieved using pattern matching of observed and predicted flood extent is negatively influenced by this spatial dependency in the data. By contrast, model calibration using water elevations produces realistic calibrated optimum friction parameters even when spatial dependency is present. To test the impact of removing spatial dependency a new method of evaluating flood inundation model performance is developed by using multiple random subsamples of the water surface elevation data points. By testing for spatial dependency using Moran’s I, multiple subsamples of water elevations that have no significant spatial dependency are selected. The model is then calibrated against these data and the results averaged. This gives a near identical result to calibration using spatially dependent data, but has the advantage of being a statistically robust assessment of model performance in which we can have more confidence. Moreover, by using the variations found in the subsamples of the observed data it is possible to assess the effects of observational uncertainty on the assessment of flooding risk.

Aluminium and human breast diseases

The human breast is exposed to aluminium from many sources including diet and personal care products, but dermal application of aluminium-based antiperspirant salts provides a local long-term source of exposure. Recent measurements have shown that aluminium is present in both tissue and fat of the human breast but at levels which vary both between breasts and between tissue samples from the same breast. We have recently found increased levels of aluminium in noninvasively collected nipple aspirate fluids taken from breast cancer patients (mean 268±28 g/l) compared with control healthy subjects (mean 131±10 g/l) providing evidence of raised aluminium levels in the breast microenvironment when cancer is present. The measurement of higher levels of aluminium in type I human breast cyst fluids (median 150g/l) compared with human serum (median 6g/l) or human milk (median 25g/l) warrants further investigation into any possible role of aluminium in development of this benign breast disease. Emerging evidence for aluminium in several breast structures now requires biomarkers of aluminium action in order to ascertain whether the presence of aluminium has any biological impact. To this end, we report raised levels of proteins that modulate iron homeostasis (ferritin, transferrin) in parallel with raised aluminium in nipple aspirate fluids in vivo, and we report overexpression of mRNA for several S100 calcium binding proteins following long-term exposure of MCF-7 human breast cancer cells in vitro to aluminium chlorhydrate.

Global retrieval of ATSR cloud parameters and evaluation (GRAPE): dataset assessment

The Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs) provide a long time-series of measurements suitable for the retrieval of cloud properties. This work evaluates the freely-available Global Retrieval of ATSR Cloud Parameters and Evaluation (GRAPE) dataset (version 3) created from the ATSR-2 (1995�2003) and Advanced ATSR (AATSR; 2002 onwards) records. Users are recommended to consider only retrievals flagged as high-quality, where there is a good consistency between the measurements and the retrieved state (corresponding to about 60% of converged retrievals over sea, and more than 80% over land). Cloud properties are found to be generally free of any significant spurious trends relating to satellite zenith angle. Estimates of the random error on retrieved cloud properties are suggested to be generally appropriate for optically-thick clouds, and up to a factor of two too small for optically-thin cases. The correspondence between ATSR-2 and AATSR cloud properties is high, but a relative calibration difference between the sensors of order 5�10% at 660 nm and 870 nm limits the potential of the current version of the dataset for trend analysis. As ATSR-2 is thought to have the better absolute calibration, the discussion focusses on this portion of the record. Cloud-top heights from GRAPE compare well to ground-based data at four sites, particularly for shallow clouds. Clouds forming in boundary-layer inversions are typically around 1 km too high in GRAPE due to poorly-resolved inversions in the modelled temperature profiles used. Global cloud fields are compared to satellite products derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) measurements, and a climatology of liquid water content derived from satellite microwave radiometers. In all cases the main reasons for differences are linked to differing sensitivity to, and treatment of, multi-layer cloud systems. The correlation coefficient between GRAPE and the two MODIS products considered is generally high (greater than 0.7 for most cloud properties), except for liquid and ice cloud effective radius, which also show biases between the datasets. For liquid clouds, part of the difference is linked to choice of wavelengths used in the retrieval. Total cloud cover is slightly lower in GRAPE (0.64) than the CALIOP dataset (0.66). GRAPE underestimates liquid cloud water path relative to microwave radiometers by up to 100 g m�2 near the Equator and overestimates by around 50 g m�2 in the storm tracks. Finally, potential future improvements to the algorithm are outlined.

Analysis of pottery samples from Bourewa, the earliest known Lapita site in Fiji

We have carried out a thorough mineralogical analysis of 16 pottery samples from the Lapita site of Bourwera in Fiji, using micromorphological techniques with optical and polarising microscopes. While the overall mineralogy of all of the samples is similar the samples clearly divide into two groups, namely those with or without the mineral calcite. Our findings are backed up by chemical analysis using SEM–EDX and FTIR. SEM–EDX shows the clear presence of inclusions of calcite in some of the samples; FTIR shows bands arising from calcite in these samples. The study suggests that it is likely that more than one clay source was used for production of this pottery, but that most of the pottery comes from a single source. This finding is in line with previous studies which suggest some trading of pottery between the Fijian islands but a single source of clay for most of the pottery found at Bouwera. We found no evidence for the destruction of CaCO3 by heating upon production of the pottery in line with the known technology of the Lapita people who produced earthenware pottery but not high temperature ceramics.

Expression-system-dependent modulation of HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein antigenicity and immunogenicity.

Recombinant expression systems differ in the type of glycosylation they impart on expressed antigens such as the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) envelope glycoproteins, potentially affecting their biological properties. We performed head-to-head antigenic, immunogenic and molecular profiling of two distantly related Env surface (gp120) antigens produced in different systems: (a) mammalian (293 FreeStyle cells; 293F) cells in the presence of kifunensine, which impart only high-mannose glycans; (b) insect cells (Spodoptera frugiperda, Sf9), which confer mainly paucimannosidic glycans; (c) Sf9 cells recombinant for mammalian glycosylation enzymes (Sf9 Mimic), which impart high-mannose, hybrid and complex glycans without sialic acid; and (d) 293F cells, which impart high-mannose, hybrid and complex glycans with sialic acid. Molecular models revealed a significant difference in gp120 glycan coverage between the Sf9-derived and wild-type mammalian-cell-derived material that is predicted to affect ligand binding sites proximal to glycans. Modeling of solvent-exposed surface electrostatic potentials showed that sialic acid imparts a significant negative surface charge that may influence gp120 antigenicity and immunogenicity. Gp120 expressed in systems that do not incorporate sialic acid displayed increased ligand binding to the CD4 binding and CD4-induced sites compared to those expressed in the system that do, and imparted other more subtle differences in antigenicity in a gp120 subtype-specific manner. Non-sialic-acid-containing gp120 was significantly more immunogenic than the sialylated version when administered in two different adjuvants, and induced higher titers of antibodies competing for CD4 binding site ligand-gp120 interaction. These findings suggest that non-sialic-acid-imparting systems yield gp120 immunogens with modified antigenic and immunogenic properties, considerations that should be considered when selecting expression systems for glycosylated antigens to be used for structure-function studies and for vaccine use.

The effect of farming system and fertilisers on pests and natural enemies: A synthesis of current research

Organic agriculture is becoming widespread due to increased consumer demand and regulatory and political support. Organic agriculture can increase arthropod diversity but the response of pests and their natural enemies is variable. Fertiliser is an important component of agricultural systems and its effects on pests and natural enemies will influence agroecosystems. In this study, meta-analysis and vote-counting techniques were used to compare farming system (organic and conventional) and fertiliser effects on arthropod pests and their natural enemies. The meta-analyses indicated that pests generally benefitted from organic techniques, this is particularly evident when experiments were carried out on a smaller scale. Pest responses to organic and conventional fertiliser types were divergent, plant composts benefitted pest arthropods while the opposite was true for manures, this has implications for pest management. Most natural enemy groups responded positively to organic farming although this was not true for Coleopterans. Experimental scale had a prominent impact on natural enemy responses with farm scale studies showing particularly positive effects of organic agriculture on natural enemies. This suggests that it is large scale features of organic agriculture such as landscape heterogeneity that are beneficial to natural enemies. Natural enemy responses to organic fertilisers were positive indicating that field scale management practices including fertiliser can also be important in pest management.

The effects of organic and conventional fertilizers on cereal aphids and their natural enemies

Aphids are important pests of spring cereals and their abundance and the impact of their natural enemies may be influenced by fertilizer regime.2We conducted a 2-year field study investigating the effects of organic slow-release and conventional fertilizers on cereal aphids, hymenopteran parasitoids and syrphid predators and considered how the effects of fertilizers on barley morphology and colour might influence these species.3Barley yield was greater in conventionally fertilized pots. Barley morphology was also affected by treatment: vegetative growth was greater under conventional treatments. Barley receiving organic fertilizers or no fertilizer was visually more attractive to aphids compared with plants receiving conventional fertilizers.4Aphids were more abundant in conventionally fertilized barley but the reason for this increased abundance was species specific. Metopolophium dirhodum was responding to fertilizer effects on plant morphology, whereas Rhopalosiphum padi was sensitive to the temporal availability of nutrients.5Syrphid eggs were more numerous in conventionally fertilized pots, whereas the response of parasitoids appeared to be dependent on the abundance of aphids, although the number of parasitoid mummies was low in both years.6This research shows that the fertilizer treatment used can affect numerous characteristics of plant growth and colour, which can then influence higher trophic levels. This knowledge might be used to make more informed fertilizer application choices.

Tritrophic effects of organic and conventional fertilisers on a cereal-aphid-parasitoid system

The impact of parasitoids on pests varies between conventional and low-intensity agricultural systems. Although the impacts on parasitoid natural enemies of many practices within these agricultural systems are well understood, the role of fertilisers has been less well studied. The effects of organic-based and conventional fertilisers on Hordeum vulgare L. (Poaceae), the aphid Metopolophium dirhodum Walker (Hemiptera: Aphididae), and its parasitoid Aphidius ervi Haliday (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) was investigated using cage release experiments and measures of aphid and parasitoid fitness were taken. Barley tiller number and aphid weight were increased by fertilisers, particularly under conventional treatments. Adult parasitoid size correlated positively with that of the host, M. dirhodum, whereas percentage parasitism was not affected by fertiliser treatment or host size. The results suggest that the increased parasitoid impact observed in some low-intensity or organic systems is not a direct result of fertiliser treatment. Our results indicate that fertiliser treatments that improve cereal-aphid fitness will improve parasitoid fitness as measured by parasitoid size but may not influence percentage parasitism.

An improvement in clear-air turbulence forecasting based on spontaneous imbalance theory: the ULTURB algorithm

Recent research has shown that Lighthill–Ford spontaneous gravity wave generation theory, when applied to numerical model data, can help predict areas of clear-air turbulence. It is hypothesized that this is the case because spontaneously generated atmospheric gravity waves may initiate turbulence by locally modifying the stability and wind shear. As an improvement on the original research, this paper describes the creation of an ‘operational’ algorithm (ULTURB) with three modifications to the original method: (1) extending the altitude range for which the method is effective downward to the top of the boundary layer, (2) adding turbulent kinetic energy production from the environment to the locally produced turbulent kinetic energy production, and, (3) transforming turbulent kinetic energy dissipation to eddy dissipation rate, the turbulence metric becoming the worldwide ‘standard���. In a comparison of ULTURB with the original method and with the Graphical Turbulence Guidance second version (GTG2) automated procedure for forecasting mid- and upper-level aircraft turbulence ULTURB performed better for all turbulence intensities. Since ULTURB, unlike GTG2, is founded on a self-consistent dynamical theory, it may offer forecasters better insight into the causes of the clear-air turbulence and may ultimately enhance its predictability.

A Real-time, Predictive Architecture for Distributed Virtual Reality

User interaction within a virtual environment may take various forms: a teleconferencing application will require users to speak to each other (Geak, 1993), with computer supported co-operative working; an Engineer may wish to pass an object to another user for examination; in a battle field simulation (McDonough, 1992), users might exchange fire. In all cases it is necessary for the actions of one user to be presented to the others sufficiently quickly to allow realistic interaction. In this paper we take a fresh look at the approach of virtual reality operating systems by tackling the underlying issues of creating real-time multi-user environments.